Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Cyprus’ Energy Systems & Pathways to 2020 and 2025 Author: Alexandros Aristotelous Supervisor: Mr Cameron Johnstone A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment for the requirement of the degree Master of Science Sustainable Engineering: Renewable Energy Systems and the Environment 2018 Copyright Declaration This thesis is the result of the author’s original research. It has been composed by the author and has not been previously submitted for examination which has led to the award of a degree. The copyright of this thesis belongs to the author under the terms of the United Kingdom Copyright Acts as qualified by University of Strathclyde Regulation 3.50. Due acknowledgement must always be made of the use of any material contained in, or derived from, this thesis. Signed: Date: Friday, 24 August 2018 Abstract The Republic of Cyprus, an isolated energy system, generated approximately 5TWh of electricity in 2017, 91.6% of which was generated from oil-fired turbines, the large majority of which utilising heavy fuel oil. The National Energy Strategy (NES) of Cyprus, with which the country aims to meet its EU-2020 targets, compares the increase of renewables to a forecasted demand that is no longer binding; being recently invalidated with new forecasts showing an increase by at least 10% from the Transmission System Operator. The updated forecasts are corrected, and a scenario is developed and modelled using the renewable capacity desired by the national strategy. This study presents a holistic analysis of the energy systems, highlighting the concerns of relying exclusively on oil-fired turbines, with negative implications on all three elements of the energy trilemma. A business-as-usual model for 2020 shows the country not on course for meeting the 13% required target of renewable electricity generation. The study suggests a corrected pathway to 2020 from the national energy strategy, resulting to a more cost-effective system that meets the EU-2020 targets. Furthermore, a pathway to 2025 is designed and analysed, to include the gasification of power stations, the implementation of an interconnector that is currently under construction, and to integrate IRENA’s forecasted prices for renewable technologies. The suggested pathway converts Cyprus to a net exporter, bringing down the levelized cost of electricity by 7% compared to the values modelled for 2017, but also outputs a renewable annual share of 26.5%. 3 Acknowledgements I would like to take this opportunity to extend my gratitude further than this thesis’ timeframe, to the programme director of this course Dr Paul Tuohy, for supporting me whenever in need, but most importantly for being an inspiration for myself and others throughout this last year. I also want to thank my supervisor, Mr Cameron Johnstone, for guiding me through the early stages of this project and pointing out some fundamental elements for investigating an energy system, sharing his personal experience and knowledge with me. This thesis would have not been as enjoyable without my fellow classmates, to who I gravely wish the best in their next steps in life. Special thanks go to Carlos and Nikos. This study would have not been possible without the transparency and information access from the numerous national bodies of Cyprus, allowing this research to materialise in its desired forms. I am also very grateful for the open-access EU-funded PVGIS system, from which I was able to extract crucial data to use in constructing required parameters to this study. Finally, and most importantly, I want to express my gratitude to my family for their never-ending support. My partner Nannie, my parents Eleni and Vassilis, my siblings and closest friends – thank you. 4 Table of Contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................ 3 Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................... 4 Table of Contents ......................................................................................................... 5 List of Figures .............................................................................................................. 9 List of Tables.............................................................................................................. 13 List of Equations ........................................................................................................ 14 Glossary ..................................................................................................................... 15 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................... 16 2. Literature Review ............................................................................................... 18 Electrical Energy in Cyprus ....................................................................... 19 Electricity Grid ................................................................................................... 19 Demand Profile ................................................................................................... 20 Thermal Power Stations ...................................................................................... 24 2011 Catastrophe ................................................................................................ 25 Renewable Energy Sources (RES) ..................................................................... 26 National Energy Strategy .................................................................................... 29 Hydrocarbon Resources in Cyprus............................................................. 31 Block 12 – ‘Aphrodite’ ....................................................................................... 31 Vassilikos Master Plan........................................................................................ 32 Natural Gas Network .......................................................................................... 33 Energy Isolation of Cyprus ........................................................................ 34 EuroAsia ............................................................................................................. 35 EuroAfrica .......................................................................................................... 36 5 EastMed .............................................................................................................. 37 3. Potential of Renewable Energy Systems ............................................................ 38 Solar Radiation ........................................................................................... 39 Wind Speeds .............................................................................................. 41 4. Energy Systems Analysis.................................................................................... 44 Electrical Architecture ........................................................................................ 45 Demand Profile ................................................................................................... 46 Thermal Power Plants Generation ...................................................................... 47 Thermal Power Plants Generation – Modelling ................................................. 48 Fuel Usage – Thermal Power Plants ................................................................... 49 Fuel Usage – Thermal Power Plants – Modelling .............................................. 50 Wind Turbines Generation – Modelling ............................................................. 52 Renewable Generation – Modelling ................................................................... 54 Maximum Demand 2017 – July 3rd .................................................................... 55 Maximum RES Penetration 2017 – April 16th .................................................... 56 Biomass Generation – Modelling ....................................................................... 57 Case-Study: ‘Orites’ Wind Farm ............................................................... 58 Case-Study: ‘Frenaros’ Solar Photovoltaic Farm ...................................... 63 Case-Study: ‘Alassa’ Concentrated Solar Power Plant .............................. 66 Generation Economics ............................................................................... 67 5. Future Energy Scenarios of Cyprus .................................................................... 72 Forecasting Energy Demand ...................................................................... 74 Pathway to 2020: Business as Usual (BaU) ............................................... 75 Electrical Architecture ........................................................................................ 76 6 Generation Results .............................................................................................. 78 Cost Summary..................................................................................................... 80 Pathway to 2020: National Energy Strategy .............................................. 82 Energy Generation Results ................................................................................. 83 Cost Summary..................................................................................................... 85 Pathway to 2020: Suggested