Advanced drop-in biofuels UK production capacity outlook to 2030 Final Report SPATS Work Package 1-045 PPRO 04/75/17 E4tech (UK) Ltd for Department for Transport in partnership with TRL, Temple and Scarlett Research February 2017 | Strategic thinking in sustainable energy Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................... 1 1 Introduction and scope ............................................................................................................................. 6 2 Technology assessment ............................................................................................................................. 9 2.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................... 9 2.2 Gasification with Fischer-Tropsch synthesis.................................................................................................... 11 2.3 Fast pyrolysis and upgrading ........................................................................................................................... 15 2.4 Hydrothermal liquefaction and upgrading ...................................................................................................... 18 2.5 Aerobic fermentation of 2G sugars to hydrocarbons ...................................................................................... 21 2.6 Aqueous phase reforming of 2G sugars to hydrocarbons ............................................................................... 24 2.7 Catalytic conversion of 2G alcohols to hydrocarbons ..................................................................................... 26 2.8 Commercialisation outlook ............................................................................................................................. 29 3 Feedstock availability assessment ........................................................................................................... 30 3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 30 3.2 Municipal solid waste ...................................................................................................................................... 31 3.3 Straw ............................................................................................................................................................... 38 3.4 Manure ............................................................................................................................................................ 45 3.5 Forestry residues ............................................................................................................................................. 46 3.6 Wood waste .................................................................................................................................................... 49 3.7 Other wastes and residues .............................................................................................................................. 52 3.8 Imported feedstock ......................................................................................................................................... 53 3.9 Infrastructure for imports and upgrading ....................................................................................................... 54 3.10 Implications for production outlook ............................................................................................................... 56 4 Evaluation of non-technical barriers ....................................................................................................... 58 4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 58 4.2 Supply side barriers ......................................................................................................................................... 58 4.3 Demand side barriers ...................................................................................................................................... 61 5 ‘Realisable maximum’ production estimate to 2030 .............................................................................. 64 5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 64 5.2 Realisable maximum for global capacity ......................................................................................................... 66 5.3 Realisable maximum for UK capacity .............................................................................................................. 67 6 Policy review and considerations ............................................................................................................ 70 6.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 70 6.2 Current and proposed policies & funding mechanisms .................................................................................. 70 6.3 Policy considerations ....................................................................................................................................... 75 List of figures Figure 1.1: Overview of conversion routes from feedstocks to products in-scope ............................................................ 8 Figure 2.1: TRL status of different advanced biofuels ...................................................................................................... 10 Figure 2.2: Generic process diagram for gasification + FT synthesis ................................................................................ 11 Figure 2.3: Generic process diagram for fast pyrolysis and upgrading ............................................................................. 15 Figure 2.4: Generic process diagram for hydrothermal liquefaction and upgrading ....................................................... 18 Figure 2.5: Generic process diagram for conversion of 2G sugars to hydrocarbons via fermentation ............................ 21 Figure 2.6: Generic process diagram for aqueous phase reforming to hydrocarbons ..................................................... 24 Figure 2.7: Generic process diagram for conversion of alcohols to hydrocarbons .......................................................... 26 Figure 2.8: Generic process diagram for conversion of methanol to gasoline ................................................................. 26 Figure 3.1: EU waste hierarchy from the EU Waste Framework Directive ....................................................................... 32 Figure 3.2: Biological MSW accessible for UK energy uses from 2015 to 203031 ............................................................. 33 Figure 3.3: Potential future residual waste capacity gap in the UK (wet tonnes, fossil and biogenic) ............................. 34 Figure 3.4: Regional availability of MSW (wet), excluding recycling, in 2014/15 ............................................................. 35 Figure 3.5: Potential locations for sourcing MSW feedstocks, on a GB population density background ......................... 38 Figure 3.6: Current and projected straw resource in the UK that could be accessible from 2015 to 203031 ................... 40 Figure 3.7: Regional straw production, showing current use and uncollected straw that may be available40 ................ 41 Figure 3.8: Density of straw availability for energy uses in the East of England43 ............................................................ 42 Figure 3.9: Potential plant locations using straw (yellow), with surplus regions (green) and competing plants (red) .... 44 Figure 3.10: Regional GB current sustainable and recoverable forest waste arisings40 ................................................... 46 Figure 3.11: Current and projected available forest residues in the UK from 2015 to 203031 ......................................... 47 Figure 3.12: Proposed plant locations for using forest residues (yellow), with major forest areas (green) and competing plants (red) ....................................................................................................................................................................... 49 Figure 3.13: Current and projected UK waste wood that could be accessible from 2015 to 203031 ............................... 51 Figure 3.14: Regional production of waste wood53 .......................................................................................................... 51 Figure 3.15: Global agricultural residues and woody biomass potentially available to UK31 ........................................... 53 Figure 3.16: Anticipated increase in demand for imported wood from UK electricity generators56 ............................... 54 Figure 3.17: Major dry bulk ports in the UK ..................................................................................................................... 55 Figure 3.18: UK refineries and key product distribution terminals 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