Vol. IX, No. 9 www.cubatradenews.com September 2007 Obama: Modest proposal, big impact The Democratic Congress so far has disappointed those in favor of ending the embargo against Cuba. But now, Cuba is popping up in presidential campaigns in a way it hasn’t before. A novelty The face of change is Democratic front-runner Barack Obama, who broke a decades- in Miami: old political taboo by campaigning on an embargo-easing platform in Miami. The A presidential Illinois senator said he would roll back the Bush Administration’s 2004 travel and frontrunner remittance restrictions against Cuban Americans. campaigning “I will grant Cuban Americans unrestricted rights to visit family and send to ease Cuba remittances to the island,’’ Obama wrote in an op-ed published by the Miami restrictions. Herald four days before a fundraiser in Little Havana. Although Obama’s proposals are modest — he said he would continue the embargo, with radical political change in Cuba as his ultimate goal — Photo courtesy Obama he has succeeded in forcing the other candidates to take a stand on U.S.- Cuban relations in their campaigns. Obama is taking a calculated risk. Fifty-five percent of Cuban Americans in Miami favor unrestricted travel to Cuba, according to a recent survey by Florida International University. And the potential rewards from the mainstream electorate are large: fifty-six percent of Americans favor lifting all restrictions on Cuba, according to a recent Zogby poll. Also see: And the Others? P. 2 Continued on next page FT: Washington targets foreign banks Economy U.S. criminal investigators and regulators have ALBA BANK GETS UNDERWAY stepped up investigations of several large European Government officials from Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela banks for violating U.S. sanctions against Cuba, Iran, met in Managua Sept. 3 to hammer out the founding act and Libya and Sudan, the Financial Times reported. bylaws of a development bank under the auspices of the ALBA According to an anonymous source quoted by FT, some trade and integration agreement. of the targeted banks have begun to negotiate settlements The draft proposal will then be presented to the ALBA and are expected to pay fines by the end of this year. Council of Ministers, which will gather in Havana Sept. 20- The legal lever backing up the Bush Administration’s 21. investigations is a clause of the Patriot Act that aims at If funded, the Banco de la Alternativa Bolivariana de las U.S. dollar transactions third-country banks perform for Américas could provide another boost to the Cuban economy. clients of embargoed countries. All of these payments In April, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez announced that must clear through a U.S. financial institution, which the Chinese government was willing to contribute $4 billion to the Patriot Act forbids. a $6 billion fund that finances ALBA infrastructure projects. Although Washington has not provided any evidence The creation of the of Cuba supporting terror organizations, and Cuba Banco del ALBA was ALSO READ apparently isn’t a target in the administration’s War on decided at an ALBA Terror, the Bush Administration’s efforts have already Council of Ministers ‘ALBA’S TELECOM ’ caused at least a dozen foreign banks to drop Cuba meeting in June. The page 5 altogether over the past two years; nearly all foreign charter members Continued on page 8 agree that all ALBA Continued on page 5 ‘Obama,’ from previous page programmatic difference from the historical majority of the It’s too early to say whether the move helped or damaged main candidates.” his chances in the Florida and other states’ primaries, but Obama’s next test will come Sept. 9 when the Democratic Obama’s Aug. 25 pilgrimage to Little Havana increased the candidates debate each other at the University of Miami. probability of a more conciliatory era to begin between the United States and Cuba, should he be elected. And the others? Rousing applause and 1,500 sold tickets at the fundraiser aside, Obama managed to line up the support of the Miami- The Democrats: Dade Democrats for his restrictions-easing proposals before •Sen. Hillary Clinton has said she won’t lift the embargo the event. Obama was able to achieve this mainly with the until Cuba has changed substantially. Clinton has made help of local Cuban American politicians who only a few Cuba statements mostly in reaction to Obama whose years ago were weighty embargo supporters. foreign policy proposals she has called“naïve.” In a recent “It shows courage, and it shows commitment to move Senate vote, Clinton supported funding for TV Marti. beyond the status-quo politics of rhetoric, which is all the •John Edwards has expressed support for the embargo Cuban-American community has received from any party in the past, but didn’t rule out meeting with the heads of for the last half century,” Joe Garcia, a former executive “rogue” states. director of the hardline Cuban American National Foundation •Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd has sponsored legislation and chairman of the Miami-Dade Democrats, said about that would end the travel ban altogether. Obama’s proposal. •Bill Richardson is in favor of maintaining the embargo, French embargo expert Salim Lamrani, in a commentary but he has said Washington should “reevaluate” it. in Spain’s left-wing Rebelión’— a publication generally •Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden is in favor of maintaining supportive of Cuba — called Obama’s proposals “eminently the embargo. constructive.” •Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich calls for an end to the What’s more, in a historical first, Obama got restrained embargo. applause from high-ranking Cuban officials and Cuban state •Mike Gravel opposes the embargo and has called for a media. normalization of relations. To be sure, Fidel Castro countered Obama’s gambit with a full-blown verbal attack belittling his intentions. The Republicans Suggesting that Obama will end up as vice president under •Mitt Romney supports the embargo. a President Hillary Clinton, Obama and Clinton “are not •Rudy Giuliani has attacked Fidel Castro and Hugo making politics — they are playing a game of cards on a Chávez in fiery campaign speeches. Sunday afternoon,” the ailing Cuban leader wrote in a •Arizona Sen. John McCain has consistently voted in scathing Aug. 28 editorial. favor of the embargo. But with younger brother Raúl at the helm of Cuba’s •Mike Huckabee’s opinion on Cuba policy is unknown. government, other official statements gave Obama a cautious •Kansas Rep. Sam Brownback has expressed support but warmer welcome. for the embargo. Breaking with the Republican White Obama expresses “the sentiment of the majority of House, in 2003 he voted to ease restrictions on Americans Americans,” Foreign Minister Felipe Pérez Roque said Aug. traveling to Cuba. 22 in Brazil, asked to comment by reporters. •California Rep. Duncan Hunter has been a consistent And an Aug. 25 article in Communist Party newspaper supporter of a hard line against Cuba. Granma International pointed out that Obama “separated •Texas Rep. Ron Paul has worked against the himself from the traditional declarations against the Cuban agricultural trade restrictions. revolution in U.S. election campaigns, marking a •Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo’s stance is unknown. Cuba Trade & Investment News is a monthly publication of North American Partners (NAP), Tampa, FL, USA. CTIN is distributed to subscribers via mail or e-mail. Publisher Andrew Goddard P.O. Box 13752 Tampa, FL 33681-3752 USA Tel: 813 839 6988 Fax: 813 831 3811 [email protected] www.cubatradenews.com Editor Johannes Werner [email protected] Tel: 941 330 0303 Editorial Advisors: Chris Aberle, Michelle Butler, Jorge Echave, Kirby Jones, David Lyons, John McAuliff, Phil Peters SUBSCRIPTIONS Call 813 839 6988. One year $300. In Canada and Mexico, add $15 postage. COPYRIGHT NOTICE No part of this publication may be copied, photographed or duplicated without NAP’s consent. 2 Documentation: Cuban trade statistics Tracking In its report to Congress in June, the U.S. International Trade Commission compiled a wealth of statistics about Cuba’s foreign trade. We are reprinting a the Embargo selection of these statistics here. Cuban agricultural, fish, and forestry imports By Paolo Spadoni 2000–06 (mln. US$) Irrelevant dissidents? Country 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 United States 0 4 140 254 392 352 337 The recent succession of power EU 273 238 209 239 164 171 170 from Fidel to Raúl Castro has so far Brazil 22 58 41 27 62 110 149 produced little change, not only in Argentina 41 36 1312687271 Cuba but also in U.S. policy toward Canada 74 84 62 41 63 79 66 the island. China 70 59 87 47 32 57 52 Labeling the power shift a New Zealand 6 44 30 39 54 40 43 continuation of “autocracy,” the Total 550 603 650 756 937 1,045 1,039 Bush administration has stated that it makes no difference whether Fidel Source: ITC, compiled from Global Trade Atlas. Note: Data unavailable for Vietnam or Raúl leads the country. In order to hasten a democratic transition in Cuba, the United States continues to Cuban agricultural, fish, and forestry imports rely on restrictive measures aimed to deny hard-currency resources to the from the United States Castro government and provide 2000–06 (mln. US$) increasing financial support to Commodity 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 dissident groups in an attempt to Grains 0 2 52 83 180 145 136 “empower” the Cuban people and Wheat 0 0 23 37 58 51 51 strengthen an independent civil Flour 0000003 society. It seems almost irrelevant to Corn 0 2 23 36585543 the White House that some Rice 00611643940 prominent Cuban dissidents, often Animal feed 0 0 19 26 36 24 42 portrayed as U.S.-backed Soybeans 0 0 21 34 28 33 32 “mercenaries” by the island’s Fats and oils 0 0 22 52 24 28 22 authorities, have described Bush’s Dry beans 000181220 policy approach as Meats 0 2 23 37 63 66 59 counterproductive and actually favor Poultry 0 2 23 37 61 58 45 lifting the embargo.