INTERIM STATUS REPORT: ASSESSMENT OF THE HIGHER EDUCATION NEEDS SNOHOMISH, ISLAND, AND SKAGIT COUNTIES AREA Submitted to: The Higher Education Coordinating Board by: NBBJ and MGT of America, Inc. December 30, 2005 INTERIM STATUS REPORT: ASSESSMENT OF THE HIGHER EDUCATION NEEDS SNOHOMISH, ISLAND, AND SKAGIT COUNTIES AREA TABLE OF CONTENTS Page I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF WORK TO DATE ............................................................................... 1 A. FORECAST DEMOGRAPHICS .............................................................................................................. 1 B. ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS ............................................................................................................. 2 C. PROGRAM NEEDS ASSESSMENT ........................................................................................................ 3 D. NEXT STEPS ...................................................................................................................................... 4 II. PURPOSE & PROCESS......................................................................................................................... 5 A. POLICY REFERENCE .......................................................................................................................... 5 B. STUDY DETERMINANTS .................................................................................................................... 5 C. STUDY PROCESS ............................................................................................................................... 6 III. PRELIMINARY QUANTITATIVE NEEDS ANALYSIS - ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS.... 7 A. FORECAST DEMOGRAPHICS .............................................................................................................. 7 B. ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS ............................................................................................................. 9 IV. PRELIMINARY QUALITATIVE NEEDS ANALYSIS - PROGRAM NEEDS ANALYSIS ...... 16 A. METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................................. 16 B. OCCUPATIONAL PREPARATION NEEDS............................................................................................ 16 C. TOWN HALL MEETINGS .................................................................................................................. 18 D. FINDINGS: BARRIERS TO POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION ............................................................... 21 E. FINDINGS: DELIVERY SYSTEMS ...................................................................................................... 21 V. NEXT STEPS......................................................................................................................................... 23 APPENDICES A – LEGISLATION DIRECTING THE STUDY B – GLOSSARY OF TERMS C – MEMBERSHIP OF LOCAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE & PROJECT COORDINATION TEAM D – ENROLLMENT ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY E – EMPLOYER DISCUSSION GUIDE F – STUDENT DISCUSSION GUIDE G – LIST OF FIRMS AND EMPLOYERS CONTACTED H – COUNTY DEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION I – LIST OF RESOURCE DOCUMENTS J – AGE DISTRIBUTION OF UNMET NEED SIS Interim Status Report I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF WORK TO DATE This Executive Summary describes the efforts completed to date of a higher education needs assessment for Snohomish, Island, and Skagit counties. The effort so far in this project has focused on identifying the educational needs, both in terms of enrollment and programs. The definition and description of alternative organizational models, assessing sites for possible educational resources to meet the identified educational need, and the identification of the costs and process for completing a master plan are scheduled for calendar year 2006. Through a proviso in the 2005 Capital Budget (see Appendix A), the Washington State Legislature directed the Washington Higher Education Coordinating Board (HECB) to undertake a higher education needs assessment of a study area composed of Snohomish, Island and Skagit Counties. The study is commonly referred to as the SIS study. Specifically, Section 615 of Engrossed Substitute Senate Bill (ESSB) 6094 calls for the following four major areas of study: 1. Assess the higher education needs in Snohomish, Island, and Skagit Counties. 2. Evaluate alternative organizational models for meeting identified needs and recommend the type of institution(s) to be established. 3. Assess sites for establishment of an institution. 4. Identify costs and process for completing a master plan for higher education expansion in the study area. The study process involves several ongoing and concurrent efforts in three major areas: 1) educational need/demand analyses and program analyses, 2) definition and description of alternative State responses to those needs, and 3) locale selection. To date, the majority of effort has been focused on identifying the need and demand for higher education in the study area and an analysis of the programs to be offered to address that need. In considering solutions to the needs of the study area, the HECB was directed to take into account population growth, higher education participation rates, economic demand and work force needs, and drive and commute times to existing higher education institutions. The summary of the need and demand for higher education, described below, is contained in four areas: Forecast Demographics, Enrollment Projections, Program Needs Assessment, and Next Steps. Attached to the interim report are several appendices, including a glossary of terms, that amplify the material contained in the report and are available for those desiring more in depth understanding of the study’s process and analysis. A. Forecast Demographics Forecast demographics provide the basis for understanding the potential enrollment projections for the SIS region. Overall, the SIS region’s population is projected to increase 39.9% by the year 2025, or more than 340,500 people, for a total population of nearly 1.2 million. In 2005, 78.0% of the SIS region’s population is in Snohomish County, dropping slightly to 77.8% by 2025. Page 1 SIS Interim Status Report Although Skagit County is the area’s county with the largest forecast percentage increase 45.7% in population, Snohomish County will have the largest increase in the absolute number of people (262,500) over the next 20 years. The proportion of persons aged 65 and over is estimated to significantly increase over the next twenty years, particularly in Island County. Although there is a shift to older populations, a significant amount of the population is and will remain in the age groups 15 to 24 and 25 to 44. B. Enrollment Projections Enrollment projections estimate the future enrollment levels of residents of the SIS study area. As directed in the study legislation, analysis of the regions participation rates in public higher education was conducted. Participation rates are the proportion of the population projected to enroll at the public universities and colleges. The higher education participation rates for the SIS counties are below the current statewide averages for participation at four-year public institutions. The higher education participation rates for Washington, as a whole, are below the national averages for participation at four-year public institutions. The participation rates for Washington’s Community and Technical Colleges is one of the highest in the country and well above the national average. Initially, five alternative enrollment levels were developed for the public four-year institutions. These alternatives projected enrollment to the year 2025 and ranged from enrollment increases due to population growth alone (current participation rate) to enrollment levels that would occur if the region achieved the national 70th percentile in enrollment. The desirability and feasibility of these alternatives was reviewed with the study’s Local Advisory Committee and Project Coordination Team. Based upon these discussions the HECB determined that an appropriate enrollment planning model would reflect area enrollments increasing to the state average by 2015 and to the national average by 2025. This model calls for the full-time equivalent (FTE) enrollment increases displayed in the Total Need table below. Using these total need planning numbers, the analysis then estimated the amount of the projected need that could be met at the existing public institutions. The remainder, termed “unmet need” for the region, is summarized in the Unmet Need table below. TOTAL NEED UNMET NEED In FTEs In FTEs Sector 2015 2025 Sector 2015 2025 Community/Technical 2,960 4,740 Community/Technical 2,960 4,740 Colleges Colleges Four-Year Institutions 3,680 8,840 Four-Year Institutions 2,920 6,970 Page 2 SIS Interim Status Report In the tables above, the Community/Technical College enrollment numbers do not change between the Total Need table and the Unmet Need table. For the community/technical college sector, all total need was assumed to be unmet under current circumstances, and the accommodation of their unmet need, as well as the unmet need of the four-year sector, will be dealt with later in this study. C. Program Needs Assessment Program needs assessment identifies the program needs of the study region. The qualitative methodology utilized a variety of sources and a broadly representative group of stakeholders. Stakeholder input was (and continues to be) collected through the use of the