$SFBUJOHB TUDFOUVSZ Journal Issue 2 2017 FOMJHIUFONFOU DPGGFFIPVTF 'PVOEFEJOBO&OMJHIUFONFOUDPGGFFIPVTFCZBHSPVQPGQFPQMF XJUIBWJTJPOGPSBCFUUFSUPNPSSPX UIF34"JTOPXBHMPCBM 'FMMPXTIJQEFEJDBUFEUPFOSJDIJOHTPDJFUZUISPVHIJEFBTBOE BDUJPO*OXFXJMMCFVOEFSUBLJOHBOBNCJUJPVTQSPKFDUUP SFEFWFMPQMFWFMTBOEPG34")PVTFJOUPBTUDFOUVSZ FOMJHIUFONFOUDPGGFFIPVTF'JOEPVUNPSFBCPVUUIFQSPKFDUBU XXXUIFSTBPSHDPGGFFIPVTF Uncertain futures )FMQTIBQFUIFDPGGFFIPVTFCZTVCNJUUJOHBOJEFBBCPVUIPX Dan Gardner explains how we can improve forecasting XFDBODPOOFDUMJLFNJOEFEQFPQMFXJUIDSFBUJWFJEFBT PSWPUF GPSZPVSGBWPVSJUF BUXXXUIFSTBPSHDPGGFFIPVTF Lisa Nandy MP and Nus Ghani MP on the future of British politics John Harris explores what brings pop stars and politicians together Do you know Did you know? someone RSA House can host dinners, parties, meetings and more. Catered by Harbour & Jones, recently awarded Event Caterer of the Year! who would make a great Fellow? Your nominations are a great way to add the expertise and enthusiasm of friends and colleagues to the Fellowship community. You can nominate them online at www.theRSA.org/nominate. We will send a personalised invitation on your behalf and notify you To book your event contact us on 020 7930 5115 or email [email protected] Fellows have access to the brightest new ideas, innovative projects, a diverse network of like-minded people and a www.thersa.org/house platform for social change. “DIG INTO THE RECORDS OF ALMOST ANY YEAR AND YOU WILL FIND PEOPLE LOOKING BACK TO MORE CERTAIN TIMES” DAN GARDNER, PAGE 10 REGULARS FEATURES 34 HOUSING Grenfell: taking stock 06 UPDATE 10 FORECASTING The RSA’s Jonathan Schifferes The latest RSA news Blurred vision sets out the injustices exposed by We must master the art of Grenfell Tower and says we must 09 EVENTS forecasting before we can now guarantee safe housing for all, Events programme highlights understand the true nature regardless of social status of uncertainty, says author 48 GLOBAL Dan Gardner 38 PLACE Although the US is withdrawing Street values from leadership on international 16 CONVERSATION A better empirical understanding issues, more distributed forms of The routes of post truth of the value of place would help agency are emerging Journalist Matthew d’Ancona government and planners to enhance shares his ideas on navigating wellbeing in urban settings 49 NEW FELLOWS the alarming post-truth era with Introducing six new RSA Fellows Matthew Taylor 40 TECHNOLOGY System reboot 50 LAST WORD 20 POLITICS Organisations should forget Philosopher Lisa Bortolotti on State of change what they know about business whether we should embrace a MPs Lisa Nandy and Nus Ghani if they want to survive the second glass-half-full outlook or be more give their views on what sort of machine age, say MIT research realistic in our expectations politics can guide us through this scientist Andrew McAfee and period of uncertainty MIT professor Erik Brynjolfsson FELLOWSHIP IN ACTION 26 MUSIC 44 COMMUNITY Stand by me Lessons from Preston 25 The Office of Civic Imagination Politicians and pop stars normally Progressive local economic could unlock a more collaborative keep a safe distance, but there are movements are finding a foothold approach to city governance moments when they join forces. around the world and offer a Journalist John Harris explores why renewal of social hope, say the 33 The Trades Guild Toolkit will help Centre for Local Economic small businesses find their voice 30 MARKETS Strategies’ Neil McInroy and Spirited economics Matthew Jackson, and Preston 37 Dis/Ordinary Architecture aims to New technologies could help City Councillor Matthew Brown change how inclusion is thought us predict the irrational, says about in the built environment economist Paul Ormerod www.thersa.org 3 Patron of the Society Executive RSA Journal HM The Queen Chief executive Editor Matthew Taylor Jane Douglas President Director of external affairs ([email protected]) HRH The Princess Royal Nina Bolognesi Creative director Director of innovation Ben Barrett Board of Trustees and development Senior designer Chair Rowan Conway Johan Shufiyan Vikki Heywood CBE Chief operating officer Publisher Deputy chair Carol Jackson Emma Fisher Peter Fell Director of the Action and Production director Treasurers Research Centre John Faulkner Sarah Ebanja Anthony Painter Production manager Stephen Gleadle Director of Fellowship Jack Morgan Oliver Reichardt Managing director, Wardour Jackie Elliman Claire Oldfield Tanya Hine OBE RSA (The Royal Society for CEO, Wardour Rod Hyde the encouragement of Arts, Martin MacConnol Jan Portillo Manufactures & Commerce), Commissioning editor Keith Read CBE 8 John Adam Street, Rachel O’Brien Saleh Saeed OBE London WC2N 6EZ Distribution Sue Siddall Tel +44 (0)20 7930 5115 Ann Gutowski Philippa Wilson www.thersa.org Registered as a charity in The RSA Journal is published England and Wales, no. 212424 for the RSA by Wardour, and in Scotland no. SC037784 5th Floor, Drury House, 34–43 Russell Street, RSA Journal, Volume CLXIII London WC2B 5HA No. 5570, Issue 2 2017 Tel +44 (0)20 7010 0999 ISSN: 0958-0433 www.wardour.co.uk Thematic Councillors Area Councillors International Affiliate Chairs Creative Learning Central North South West Australia and New Zealand and Development Edward Boott Rod Hyde * Alan Bec Chris Hartley Alex Bell Hasmita Chavda Sharon Jandu Chris Luffingham Lucy Griffiths Peter Clitheroe Pauline Moger Michelle Preston United States of America Lolita Jackson Economy, Enterprise Ireland Scotland Wales and Manufacturing Dr Kieran Rachael Brown Leonie Ramondt Ian Coleman McGeown Tanya Hine OBE *** Phill Burton Eric Woodcock Suzanne Lyle The RSA Journal is South East * Fellowship printed on 100% Public Services London Caroline Clark Council (FC) chair recycled paper, which is Forest Stewardship and Communities Bhavani Esapathi Maurizio Fantato ** FC deputy chair Council certified and Lorna Prescott ** Amy Pryor Clem Henricson *** FC Trustee Carbon Balanced. Steve Trevillion Judy Rees representative © The RSA. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or part prohibited without prior permission of the RSA. The RSA and Wardour accept no responsibility for the views expressed by contributors to the RSA Journal, or for unsolicited manuscripts, photographs or illustrations, or for errors in articles or advertisements in the RSA Journal. The views expressed in the RSA Journal are not necessarily those held by the RSA or its Trustees. 4 RSA Journal Issue 2 2017 COMMENT “WE NEED TO SPOT AND SEIZE OPPORTUNITIES THAT CAN ARISE UNEXPECTEDLY” MATTHEW TAYLOR In making predictions it can feel like we are in levels of difficulty (it was Harry Kane, in case you’re wondering). Yet, I the grip of a paradox. On the one hand, through am writing the day after Burnley, a team that failed to manage an away big data and processing power we have an ever- victory in the league last season, went to champions Chelsea and stronger basis for prediction. I am writing this won. The game of football has so many moving and interdependent article at a kitchen table in an out-of-the-way part parts that unusual events are inevitable. Indeed, the irony of fans being of rural southern France. A few years ago, finding so interested in predictive statistics is that if every game really did go our way here across winding country roads would according to plan we would soon lose interest. Paul Ormerod is surely have been difficult. Yesterday at the airport we right that we need to try to factor human subjectivity and irrationality simply put the address of the farm into our phone. into our calculations, but as the myth of the sporting hot streak shows, Not only did it instantly work out the route and the same events can apparently inspire one player to greater heights tell us what time we would arrive, but it provided while luring another into complacency. options to avoid road tolls and even regular real- So what are we to do in this world when we know ever more about time updates on traffic conditions. An experience the factors shaping social reality but are still a long way from being that just a decade ago could have been stressful able to predict how these factors will interact to generate an outcome? and uncertain was relaxing and worry-free. The RSA has an answer. It was the subject of a well-received piece in the previous edition of this journal by my colleague Ian Burbidge. Yet, in this information-rich world we are also continuously reminded He explained the advice we offer to our partners in change: ‘think like of the role of contingency in human affairs. I suspect that neither a system, act like an entrepreneur’. In other words, we must make the Lisa Nandy nor Nus Ghani – both of whom have written for this edition fullest possible use of the information available to us to understand of the journal – expected the recent general election result. The point the systemic forces underlying a social equilibrium, and to scope an was not just that Labour’s performance was surprising, but that it alternative, better state. But when it comes to action we need to be was, in a sense, an accident. Part of the reason Theresa May called agile, adaptive and pragmatic; ready to spot and seize opportunities the election and part of the reason she thought she could take risks, that can arise unexpectedly, sometimes only momentarily, to open up a such as including unpopular policies in her manifesto and deciding possibility for change. not to debate them, was that Jeremy Corbyn was doing so badly. Ian’s article has led to several further conversations; an example of But the failings of the Tory campaign opened the door to Labour. how influential RSA Journal can be. Some of these conversations are Thus, Corbyn’s success was partly the result of his previous failure. turning into longer term partnerships for change. The hard issue, it Would an algorithm ever be able to predict something so perverse? turns out, is not accepting that we live in a world that is both data rich Dan Gardner is wise to say in his article that human judgement and unpredictably volatile, but becoming the kind of organisation that cannot be written off.