The sustainable freight railway: Designing the freight vehicle – track system for higher delivered tonnage with improved availability at reduced cost SUSTRAIL Grant Agreement n°: 265740 FP7 - THEME [SST.2010.5.2-2.] Project Start Date: 2011-06-01 Duration: 48 months D5.2: Economic benefit final report Due date of deliverable: 31/12/2014 Actual submission date: 18/05/2015 Work Package Number: WP5 Dissemination Level: PU Status: Draft Leader of this deliverable: University of Leeds, UNILEEDS Prepared by: John Nellthorp, UNILEEDS Dan Johnson, UNILEEDS Juan de Dios Sanz Bobi, UPM Kiril Karagyozov, VTU Todor Razmov, VTU Anna Dzhaleva, VTU Mirena Todorova, VTU Verified by: Phillip Wheat, UNILEEDS Kevin Blacktop, NR Dissemination Level PU Public PP Restricted to other programme participants (including the Commission Services) RE Restricted to a group specified by the consortium (including the Commission Services) CO Confidential, only for members of the consortium (including the Commission Services) [PU - 1] Page 2 of 110 Document History Version Date Author/s Description Draft 0.1 16/10/2014 John Nellthorp, Phill Wheat, Dan Document Structure Johnson Draft 0.2 27/02/2015 John Nellthorp Sections 1&2 Draft 0.3 01/05/2015 John Nellthorp, Dan Johnson, Sections 3-7 draft Kiril Karagyozov, Todor Razmov Draft 07/05/2015 John Nellthorp, Dan Johnson, Complete document Final 1.0 Kiril Karagyozov, Todor Razmov. Juan de Dios Sanz Bobi Draft 15/05/2015 John Nellthorp, Dan Johnson Amendments following QA Final 1.1 review Final 1.2 18/05/2015 John Nellthorp Further minor amendments to the document Disclaimer The information in this document is provided as is and no guarantee or warranty is given that the information is fit for any particular purpose. The user thereof uses the information at its sole risk and liability. The document reflects only the author’s views and the Community is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. [Deliverable D5.2] [PU – 1] Page 3 of 110 Table of contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................... 7 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................... 14 1.1 THE SUSTRAIL BUSINESS CASE (WP5) AND THE ROLE OF ECONOMIC BENEFITS ...................................... 14 1.2 INPUTS TO THIS ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................................... 14 1.3 SCOPE OF THIS DELIVERABLE ...................................................................................................................... 15 2. APPROACH TO USER AND ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS .............................................. 16 2.1 FREIGHT USER BENEFITS ............................................................................................................................. 16 2.2 PASSENGER USER BENEFITS ......................................................................................................................... 16 2.3 ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS ........................................................................................................................ 17 2.4 SCENARIOS .................................................................................................................................................. 17 2.5 TIME PERIOD ............................................................................................................................................... 18 2.6 GEOGRAPHICAL SCOPE ................................................................................................................................ 18 2.7 TRACK ACCESS CHARGE ASSUMPTIONS ....................................................................................................... 19 2.8 INPUTS ........................................................................................................................................................ 19 3. IMPACTS OF THE SUSTRAIL INNOVATIONS ...................................................................... 21 3.1 AGGREGATION FROM INPUTS TO THE CASE STUDY CORRIDOR .................................................................... 21 3.1.1 The LCC data ..................................................................................................................................... 21 3.1.2 Track costs .......................................................................................................................................... 22 3.1.3 Freight operators’ costs ..................................................................................................................... 23 3.1.4 The RAMS data ................................................................................................................................... 23 3.2 SUMMARY OF THE IMPACTS OF THE SUSTRAIL INNOVATIONS .................................................................. 24 3.2.1 Track costs .......................................................................................................................................... 24 3.2.2 Track access charges .......................................................................................................................... 24 3.2.3 Freight operators ................................................................................................................................ 25 3.2.4 End users and third parties ................................................................................................................ 26 4. FREIGHT AND ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS FOR THE UK CASE STUDY ................. 27 4.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................ 27 4.2 LEFT MODEL .............................................................................................................................................. 27 4.2.1 Overview ............................................................................................................................................. 27 4.2.2 LEFT model architecture .................................................................................................................... 27 4.3 DATA .......................................................................................................................................................... 29 4.3.1 Road Tonnes and Tonne-kms .............................................................................................................. 29 4.3.2 Rail Tonnes and Tonne-kms ............................................................................................................... 30 4.4 CALIBRATION .............................................................................................................................................. 32 4.5 FREIGHT TRANSPORT ELASTICITIES ............................................................................................................. 33 4.6 SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS ............................................................................................................................. 33 4.7 EMISSIONS MODELLING AND VALUATION .................................................................................................... 34 4.7.1 Road emissions ................................................................................................................................... 35 4.7.2 Rail emissions ..................................................................................................................................... 35 4.7.3 Valuation of SUSTRAIL emissions reductions .................................................................................... 35 4.8 RESULTS ...................................................................................................................................................... 36 5. FREIGHT AND ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS FOR THE BULGARIAN CASE STUDY38 5.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................ 38 5.2 BULGARIAN FREIGHT MODEL ...................................................................................................................... 38 5.3 DATA .......................................................................................................................................................... 41 5.4 SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS ............................................................................................................................. 42 5.4.1 Option SUSTRAIL 0............................................................................................................................ 42 5.4.2 Option SUSTRAIL 1............................................................................................................................ 42 5.4.3 Option SUSTRAIL 2............................................................................................................................ 43 [Deliverable D5.2] [PU – 1] Page 4 of 110 5.5 BENEFITS FOR END USERS ............................................................................................................................ 43 5.5.1 Benefits of increased reliability of shipments ..................................................................................... 43 5.5.2 Benefits of time