FUTURES STUDIES IN CONTEMPORARY ISLAMIC AND WESTERN THOUGHT: A CRITICAL STUDY OF THE WORKS OF ZIAUDDIN SARDAR, MAHDI ELMANDJRA, ALVIN TOFFLER AND DANIEL BELL By WAN FARIZA ALYATI BINTI WAN ZAKARIA A thesis submitted to The University of Birmingham For the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY College of Arts and Law School of Philosophy, Theology and Religion Department of Theology and Religion The University of Birmingham February 2010 University of Birmingham Research Archive e-theses repository This unpublished thesis/dissertation is copyright of the author and/or third parties. The intellectual property rights of the author or third parties in respect of this work are as defined by The Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988 or as modified by any successor legislation. Any use made of information contained in this thesis/dissertation must be in accordance with that legislation and must be properly acknowledged. Further distribution or reproduction in any format is prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder. DEDICATION I dedicate this work to, My father, Wan Zakaria Abdul Rahman, My mother, Faudziah Abdullah, My dear sisters and brothers, Wan Nazahiyah, Wan Fakhrul Anwar, Wan Ahmad Zukri, Wan Zuraiha, Wan Farahiyah, Wan Farhana, Wan Zakirah, Wan Mohd. Abdul Hakim, Wan Hakimah Atirah, My beloved grandmothers, Hajjah Wan Kalthum and Hajjah Wan Lijah, My late grandfathers, Haji Abdul Rahman and Haji Abdullah, My late uncle, who inspired me in many ways, Mohd.Shahir Abdullah, And my dear soulmate, for his love and patience. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS In the name of Allah, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful. Firstly, I would like to thank the National University of Malaysia, whose scholarship enabled me to perform this research at the first place. My special thanks go to my honorable supervisor, Dr. Jabal Muhammad Buaben who, without his diligence and patience in encouraging and stimulating my thoughts, to the extent by lending many of his books, this research will not be as it is now. He is indeed ‘a father figure’ who always sacrifices his time to help with every single difficulty that I face throughout this journey – thank you very much. May Allah grant him His love and fill his life and family with happiness. My thanks also go to the University of Birmingham, who generously gave me the opportunity to experience the intellectual journey, and whose staffs of the Department of Theology and Religion gave such invaluable help and support. I would also like to convey my heartiest appreciation to my friends at the Department – Dr.Adlina, Dr. Zuliza, Dr. Hazlin and Sheida Shakouri who encouraged and helped me in the form of enlightening discussions, as well as enriching life experience. I would like to thank the honorable Professor Dr. Mohamad Nasran, Dean of the Faculty of Islamic Studies, Professor Zakaria Stapa, Former Dean of the Faculty of Islamic Studies, Professor Dr. Mohd Nasir Omar and Professor Dr. Jawiah Dakir, former Head of the Department of Theology and Philosophy, and Associate Professor Dr. Ibrahim Abu Bakar, current Head of the Department of Theology and Philosophy, Faculty of Islamic Studies and all its members who encourage and help me in every way. My thanks also go to Puan Normah Adam (Registrar’s Office), Puan Zaidah (Bursar’s Office) and Puan Khatijah Sabtu (Department of Theology and Philosophy) for their endless assistance and support throughout my study. Most importantly, I owe my gratitude to my beloved parents – Wan Zakaria Abdul Rahman and Faudziah Haji Abdullah - for their love and care, their sacrifice and endurance, as well as their unstinting encouragement to pursue my dreams in every single way – financially, morally and spiritually. Without their prayers and love, this work will ii never become reality. My special love and thanks go to my sisters and brothers, who always become my source of strength and happiness – especially to Zuraiha, who has proof-read this work, and assisted and supported me in every way. To my dear soulmate, thank you very much for your patience and fortitude, sacrifice, caring and love that make this happens. May Allah grant us His Mercy and Love in this life and the hereafter. Finally, my gratitude and thanks go to my special friends – Mahera Amirrad, Connie Au, Siti Aisyah Abdul Rahman, Jamilah Mohamad, Nur Farhana Abdul Rahman, Norzira Salleh, and Akhzailina Mohd Akhir; my honorable teachers and now become my colleagues – Associate Professor Ahmad Sunawari Long, Associate Professor Dr. Jaffary Awang, Associate Professor Dr. Mudaser Rosder, Dr.Indriaty Ismail, Dr. Abdull Rahman, and Puan Hajah Anisah Zainal Abidin. Last but not least, my special thanks go to Maggie Dennis, who has given me a ‘haven’ during the final stage of my work in Asbury; Asyiqin Abdul Halim and Amani Benhalem, who cheered me up during the final days and especially Puan Maziah “Cik Yah” and family – Encik Kassim, Sumayyah, Along, Omel and Anas - whose love and care made me realized the beauty of true friendship. And all praise is due to the Lord, the Almighty, who gives the breath, the strength – in truth everything – to this humble servant. He indeed, Who taught me and assisted me in this life journey. Alhamdulillāhi hamdan kathīra! Wan Fariza Alyati Wan Zakaria Room 3081 Department of Theology & Philosophy, Faculty of Islamic Studies, National University of Malaysia. February 2010. iii TRANSLITERATION TABLE CONSONANTS VOWELS Long ’ ء ﺁ a ا ٷ b ب ٳۑ t ت ٲى th ث j ج h Shorts ح kh –َ a خ d –ِ i د dh –ُ u ذ r Double ر (iyy (final form ī ێ (uww (final form ū ۆ z ز s س sh Diphtongs ش aw َٲو s ص ay ٲي d ض t ط z ظ c ع gh غ f ف q ق k ك l ل m م n ن w و h ﻩ h ة y ي ABSTRACT Futures Studies, or the study of future, is a post-Enlightenment new field of inquiry in Western history of intellectual tradition. It attempts to study the probable, possible and desirable futures for human. Nevertheless, the study and concern on future is not a unique Western phenomenon. Indeed, every society and civilization has its own version of “futures studies”, as found in astrology, numerology, palm reading and so on and so forth. Islam - as the religion of fitrah (primordial nature) - regards future within an eternal conception of time – the dunyā and the akhīrah. With the influence of Western analysis on future, this research attempts at firstly recognizing the notion of future in both Islam and Western traditions. In so doing, we chose two Muslim scholars, Ziauddin Sardar and Mahdi Elmandjra, who are both prominent in the study of future, and also two Western scholars, Alvin Toffler and Daniel Bell as representatives of Western tradition in studying future. Secondly, this research traces the development of futures thinking in both Western and Islamic context and argues that futures thinking, indeed Futures Studies, has become a significant mode of thinking in Western society within its reception of modernity, and now postmodernity. The development of Futures Studies and futures thinking on their Muslim counterpart shows similar interest, though with much slower pace. Our analysis therefore focuses on the thematical aspects of the scholars’ thoughts and compares the divergences between both Muslim and Western views on future, as well as their resemblances. We then conclude that the significance of futures thinking and Futures Studies should be urgently recognized by the Muslims in order to resolve their present condition in which they become part of the contributing factor. This, as we argue and believe, should be realized through an ijtihādic struggle – to be ready to criticize oneself, and recognize one’s weaknesses and mistakes in understanding and practicing one’s own religion and then to set forward the best resolution to be implemented for a desirable future. Only through this process of self-criticism and self- awareness that we can contemplate a self-renewal process for ourselves, and most importantly, for the Muslim society and its civilization in the future. i TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………………………1 1.1 The Problem……………………………………………………………………………16 1.2 Rationale………………………………………………………………………………..20 1.3 Objectives………………………………………………………………………………22 1.4 Scope and Limitations…………………………………………………………….........23 1.5 Definition of Term – Futures Studies…………………………………………….........23 1.6 Literature Review ……………………………………………………………….….....24 1.7 Research Methodology...………………………………………………………….......38 1.8 Chapters Organization………………………………………………………………...41 1.9 Conclusion…………………………………………………………….........................46 CHAPTER II INTRODUCTION TO FUTURES STUDIES IN CONTEMPORARY WESTERN THOUGHT ……………………………….................................47 2.1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………………...47 2.2 The Concept of Time and Future...............................………………………………....48 2.3 The Rise of Future Consciousness in the West.........................................………….....52 2.4 Futures Studies – Definitions.………………………………………………………....56 2.5 The Historical Development of Futures Studies in the West……………………….....62 2.6 The Purposes of Futures Studies and the Futurists…………………………………....67 2.7 The Methods of Futures Studies……………………………………………………....75 iii 2.7.1 Global Modelling……..……………………………………………………......78 2.7.2 Trend Analysis……………………………………………………………........81 2.7.3 The Delphi Technique…………….…………………………………………....82 2.8 Future Perspectives…………………………………………………………………..84 2.9 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………...89 CHAPTER III FUTURES STUDIES IN CONTEMPORARY WESTERN THOUGHT: ALVIN TOFFLER AND DANIEL BELL…................................................91