Country Report Guyana October 2010 Economist Intelligence Unit 26 Red Lion Square London WC1R 4HQ United Kingdom Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For 60 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Economist Intelligence Unit Economist Intelligence Unit 26 Red Lion Square The Economist Group London 750 Third Avenue WC1R 4HQ 5th Floor United Kingdom New York, NY 10017, US Tel: (44.20) 7576 8000 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Fax: (44.20) 7576 8500 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Hong Kong Geneva Economist Intelligence Unit Economist Intelligence Unit 60/F, Central Plaza Boulevard des Tranchées 16 18 Harbour Road 1206 Geneva Wanchai Switzerland Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2585 3888 Tel: (41) 22 566 2470 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 Fax: (41) 22 346 93 47 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] This report can be accessed electronically as soon as it is published by visiting store.eiu.com or by contacting a local sales representative. The whole report may be viewed in PDF format, or can be navigated section-by-section by using the HTML links. In addition, the full archive of previous reports can be accessed in HTML or PDF format, and our search engine can be used to find content of interest quickly. Our automatic alerting service will send a notification via e- mail when new reports become available. Copyright © 2010 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, by photocopy, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author's and the publisher's ability. However, the Economist Intelligence Unit does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 1753-4739 Symbols for tables "0 or 0.0" means nil or negligible; "n/a" means not available; "–" means not applicable Printed and distributed by IntypeLibra, Units 3&4, Elm Grove Industrial Estate, Wimbledon, SW19 4HE. Guyana 1 Contents Guyana 3 Summary 4 Basic data 5 Political structure 6 Economic structure 6 Annual indicators 7 Quarterly indicators 8 Comparative economic indicators 9 Outlook for 2010-11 9 Political outlook 9 Economic policy outlook 10 Economic forecast 12 The political scene 15 Economic policy 16 The domestic economy 17 Foreign trade and payments The region 18 Summary 19 Outlook for 2010-11 22 Recent developments List of tables 10 Guyana: international assumptions summary 12 Guyana: forecast summary 15 Guyana: central government finances 16 Guyana: selected production indicators 17 Guyana: balance of payments 24 The region: tourist arrivals by main market, 2010 25 The region: cruise passenger arrivals, 2010 List of figures 12 Guyana: gross domestic product 12 Guyana: consumer price inflation Country Report October 2010 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010 2 Guyana Morawhanna Port Kaituma ATLANTIC OCEAN Matthews Ridge Charity VENEZUELA C Supenaam uyuni R. Parika GGEORGETOWN Mahaicony BarticaBartica . R New Amsterdam a r a r M RRockstoneockstone e a m LindenLinden za e r . un D i R. R CCorrivertonorriverton o (Springlands)(Springlands) b i u Moleson Creek q e s E s IItunituni . MaburaMabura R e ic b er Mahdia B KwakwaniKwakwani GUYANA Orinduik Pakar KurupukariKurupukari aim a M o u n Annai ta in s AApoteripoteri SURINAME LethemLethem . R o r a t U i p w p K e r C o Dadanawa u . r a R n i . t n R y w n u e N e n AishaltonAishalton R u . p . u R R o b Isherton i Main road u q e s s International boundary E Main airport Capital Major town Other town 0 km 25 50 75 100 BRAZIL 0 miles 25 50 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010 Country Report October 2010 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010 Guyana 3 Guyana October 2010 Summary Outlook for 2010-11 With a general election due by December 2011, a focus by the president, Bharrat Jagdeo, on cementing his legacy is expected to translate into a strong push by his government to secure development assistance via commitments to preserve the environment in Guyana's vast interior. Open hostility between the ruling People's Progressive Party-Civic (PPP-Civic) and the main opposition People's National Congress-Reform (PNC-R), will continue to impair legislative agility. The PPP-Civic's reputation has been tarnished by allegations of collaboration with criminal elements, but no significant shift in the balance of power in the National Assembly is expected to take place during the outlook period, given firmly entrenched racial voting patterns. Economic policy priorities include improving implementation of governance reforms and raising competitiveness within the framework of a poverty reduction strategy paper (PRSP) agreed with international financial institutions. The economy will grow modestly in 2010 as global demand recovers. In 2011 growth prospects will be dragged down by a renewed weakening in the US. The current-account deficit will widen in 2010 as global energy prices rise, before narrowing in 2011 as exports pick up. The political scene Mr Jagdeo hinted in August that his party would name its presidential candidate "soon" but declined to say who his preferred candidate would be. Rumours persist that he may seek to have the constitution changed to allow him to stand for a third term in office. Economic policy The government's fiscal position improved in the first half of 2010 as revenue growth outpaced expenditure growth. The overall central government surplus improved by 12.3% year on year, to G$6.4bn (US$31m; 2.1% of estimated 2010 GDP). Barring any external shocks, the improved fiscal position is expected to be sustained for the rest of the year. The domestic economy Driven by improved output of both rice and gold, the Bank of Guyana (the central bank) estimated that real GDP expanded by 2.8% in the first half of 2010. Although a detailed quarterly breakdown was not published, supply-side data indicate a mixed performance during the period, with rice and gold output offsetting declines in other sectors. Foreign trade and payments The current-account deficit widened by nearly 40% year on year in the first half of 2010, to US$143.9m (9.4% of GDP) following a sharp increase in energy- related import spending. Editors: Bronwen Brown (editor); Fiona Mackie (consulting editor) Editorial closing date: September 16th 2010 All queries: Tel: (44.20) 7576 8000 E-mail: [email protected] Next report: To request the latest schedule, e-mail [email protected] Country Report October 2010 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010 4 Guyana Basic data Land area 214,969 sq km Population 761,510 (2006 official estimate) Main towns Population in 2002 (census estimates) Georgetown (capital) 213,705 Linden 41,112 New Amsterdam 18,480 Climate Tropical Weather in Georgetown Hottest months, September and October, 24-31°C; coldest months, January and (altitude 2 metres) February, 23-29°C (average daily minimum and maximum); driest month, October, 76 mm average rainfall; wettest month, June, 302 mm average rainfall Languages English, often spoken in a strongly marked Creole dialect; Amerindian languages are also used widely in the interior Measures Conversion to metric system is now officially complete, but US and Imperial units remain in common use; also Rhynland acre=0.4 ha=1.1 acres Currency 1 Guyana dollar (G$) = 100 cents Time 4 hours behind GMT Public holidays January 1st; February 23rd (Republic Day); Phagwaha (usually March); Good Fridaya; Easter Mondaya; May 1st (Labour day); May 26th (Independence Day); First Monday in July (Caricom Day); August 1st (Emancipation Day); December 25th and 26th; Youm un Nabia; Deepavalia (Diwali, usually November) a The dates of these public holidays depend on religious calendars and differ from year to year. Country Report October 2010 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010 Guyana 5 Political structure Official name Co-operative Republic of Guyana Form of government Republican representative system with a strong presidency and limited regional autonomy The executive The president appoints a prime minister and cabinet, not all of whom need to be members of the legislature; the cabinet is answerable to the National Assembly Head of state Elected president, who is the leader of the largest party in the National Assembly National legislature Unicameral 65-member National Assembly; normally sits for a five-year term Legal system Series of magistrates' courts and further appellate courts, with the Caribbean Court of Justice at the apex National elections August 28th 2006; the next election due by December 2011 National government The PPP-Civic and TUF majority coalition holds 37 of the 65 seats in the National Assembly Main political organisations Government: People's Progressive Party-Civic (PPP-Civic)