THE WORLD CLIMATE AND SECURITY REPORT 2020 A Product of the Expert Group of the INTERNATIONAL MILITARY COUNCIL ON CLIMATE AND SECURITY FEBRUARY 2020 www.imccs.org THE WORLD CLIMATE AND SECURITY REPORT 2020 A Product of the Expert Group of the INTERNATIONAL MILITARY COUNCIL ON CLIMATE AND SECURITY February 2020 Cover Photo: U.S. Army Service Members return to the U.S. Virgin Islands to assist with disaster relief operations in response to Hurricanes Irma and Maria, Sept. 23, 2017. U.S U.S. ARMY / PVT. ALLEEA OLIVER/RELEASED www.imccs.org The International Military Councilon Climate and Security (IMCCS) is a group of senior military leaders, security experts, and security institutions across the globe dedicated to anticipating, analyzing, and addressing the security risks of a changing climate. The IMCCS is co-led by: IMCCS Secretary General The Honorable Sherri Goodman Former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense (Environmental Security) US Department of Defense Senior Strategist, The Center for Climate and Security IMCCS Chair General Tom Middendorp (Ret) Former Chief of Defence of the Netherlands Senior Associate Fellow, Clingendael Institute The IMCCS Expert Group consists of IMCCS leaders committed to driving analysis, policy and communications on climate and security, including through the development, publication and endorsement of the World Climate and Security Report, as well as other timely analysis driven by demand signals from the IMCCS. The IMCCS Expert Group currently consists of representatives from four institutions: • The Center for Climate and Security (CCS), an institute of the Council on Strategic Risks (CSR) • The Planetary Security Initiative at the Netherlands Institute of International Relations (Clingendael) • The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) • The French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS) This report should be cited as: “The World Climate and Security Report 2020.” Product of the Expert Group of the International Military Council on Climate and Security. Authors: Steve Brock (CCS), Bastien Alex (IRIS), Oliver-Leighton Barrett (CCS), Francesco Femia (CCS), Shiloh Fetzek (CCS), Sherri Goodman (CCS), Deborah Loomis (CCS), Tom Middendorp (Clingendael), Michel Rademaker (HCSS), Louise van Schaik (Clingendael), Julia Tasse (IRIS), Caitlin Werrell (CCS). Edited by Francesco Femia & Caitlin Werrell. Published by the Center for Climate and Security, an institute of the Council on Strategic Risks. Feb 2020. © 2020 The Center for Climate and Security, an institute of The Council on Strategic Risks www.imccs.org FOREWORD The inauguralWorld Climate and Security Report 2020 from the Expert Group of the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS) provides global and regional assessments of the security risks of a changing climate, as well as opportunities for addressing them. It is the first report of its kind, and is intended to inform future climate and security policy and analysis. This report addresses a broad spectrum of the security risks of climate change, including: • Where human security risks spill over into higher-order security risks, such as political instability, conflict, major natural disasters involving significant military and humanitarian responses, mass displacements of peoples, and threats to critical resources and infrastructure • Geopolitical impacts of climate change including regional and inter-state tensions and conflicts • Impacts of climate change on military and defense, including military infrastructure, force readiness, military operations and military strategy The report is anchored by a contemporary, global survey of the climate security landscape from the vantage point of international military and security expert contributors. On the risks side, the report includes a Global and Regional Risk Overview - a description of the most current knowledge on the intersection of climate change and security at the regional and international level. This section also includes a Climate Security Risk Perception Survey, which is the first survey to assess perceptions of risk among military and security professionals who are concerned about climate change. Regarding opportunities for addressing those risks, the report includes initial results from a Climate Security Strategic Capability Game - a unique gaming approach that aims to increase awareness about relevant capabilities and capacities that are needed for conflict prevention and response in the context of climate change. Further, the report highlights some best climate security practices among national militaries and national security establishments, as well as intergovernmental security and military institutions, and explores how climate change is being incorporated into defense strategy and policy, and national and international military operations. The report concludes with recommendations for the way forward. The report clearly shows that climate change is a matter of national and global security. Consequently, the international security community has a responsibility to prepare for and to prevent the security risks of climate change, as well as a responsibility to cooperate to meet this unprecedented threat. Signed, The Honorable Sherri Goodman Secretary General The International Military Council on Climate and Security General Tom Middendorp (Ret) Chair The International Military Council on Climate and Security www.imccs.org 4 CONTENTS KEY RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 RISKS 9 I. GLOBAL AND REGIONAL RISK OVERVIEW 10 AFRICA 13 ARCTIC 28 EUROPE 33 INDO-ASIA PACIFIC 42 MIDDLE EAST 53 NORTH AMERICA 66 SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 84 II. CLIMATE SECURITY RISK PERCEPTION SURVEY RESULTS 102 OPPORTUNITIES 122 III. CLIMATE SECURITY GAME RESULTS 123 IV. HIGHLIGHTS: MILITARY BEST PRACTICES ON CLIMATE AND 136 SECURITY V. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS: 147 GLOBAL SECURITY COOPERATION www.imccs.org 5 KEY RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES Key Risks: Significant or higher risks to global security under current circumstances 1. Climate change-exacerbated water insecurity is already a significant driver of instability, and according to 93% of climate security and military experts surveyed for this report, will pose a significant or higher risk to global security by 2030. 2. Though fragile regions of the world are facing the most severe and catastrophic security consequences of climate change, all regions are facing significant or higher security risks due to the global nature of the risks. For example, 86% of climate security and military experts surveyed for this report perceive climate change effects on conflict within nations to present a significant or higher risk to global security in the next two decades. 3. As reinforced by the 31 nations represented in the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS), an increasing number of national, regional and international security and military institutions are concerned about, and planning for, climate change risks to military infrastructure, force readiness, military operations, and the broader security environment. 4. Climate mitigation, adaptation and resilience efforts are increasingly urgent to avert the significant security consequences of climate change, yet some proposed solutions such as geoengineering could present negative second-order effects to global security, if not implemented carefully. 5. Rising authoritarianism, sharpened global competition and national agendas are hampering the needed cooperation among nations to address the security risks of climate change. Key Opportunities: A path forward for global security cooperation on climate change 1. National, regional, and international security institutions and militaries around the world should advance robust climate resilience strategies, plans and investments, especially regarding climate implications for water and food security and their associated effects on stability, conflict and displacement, in their primary mission sets or lines of effort. 2. Security and military institutions should demonstrate leadership on climate security risks and resilience and encourage governments to advance comprehensive emissions reductions and adaptation investments to avoid those security disruptions. Military organizations can also lead by example through taking advantage of the significant opportunities to adopt lower carbon energy sources, and make progress on other greenhouse gases beyond carbon dioxide. 3. Climate-proofing development assistance for vulnerable nations which are likely hotspots of instability and conflict, as well as climate-proofing other policies affecting those regions, should be a priority for conflict prevention. Assistance should be aimed at climate resilience challenges such as water security, food security, and disaster preparedness. 4. The international community should embrace a Responsibility to Prepare and Prevent framework, given unprecedented foresight capabilities regarding the unprecedented risks of climate change.1 This includes ensuring all levels of government and civil society, including all national, regional and international security institutions, are prepared for the security implications of climate change. 5. Security institutions around the globe should integrate climate knowledge and training into institutional frameworks to ensure that knowledge and understanding of climate change threats permeates the organizational culture. For example, climate security curricula should be added to national and regional training