Bihar Assembly Elections From despair to hope to victory: How Nitish Kumar had his revenge Vidya Subrahmaniam Nov 23, 2015 Supporters of the Janata Dal (United) at the party office in Patna after the Grand Alliance won the Bihar Assembly elections, on November 8, 2015. File photo by:Ranjeet Kumar In 2013, Nitish Kumar parted ways from an alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Narendra Modi, arguing that Modi’s politics was at odds with India’s constitutional vision of inclusion and egalitarianism. The results of the 2015 assembly election brought home the relevance of Kumar’s words. Vidya Subrahmaniam writes on the political and social dynamics that resulted in Bihari voters turning down the BJP. If I had to describe the Bihar assembly election in one word, I’d use the word, guts. Nitish Kumar’s guts. The Bihar verdict is remarkable by any yardstick. Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav (inclusive of Rabri Devi’s term) beat a quarter century of anti-incumbency. Between them the Yadav couple held the reins for 15 years and Kumar has been Chief Minister since 2005. Add the Congress years to the combined incumbency of the Janata Dal (United) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and their cumulative time in power would add up to more than 60 years - a point repeatedly made by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on his campaign. It is another matter that when Modi totted up Kumar’s crimes, he forgot that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was in alliance with him until 2013. The BJP was with the Bihar Chief Minister for eight of his 10 years in office, which made the party an 80 per cent partner in his alleged omissions and commissions. Modi turned out to have unwisely omitted the BJP’s own contribution to the Nitish Kumar Government. Modi’s taunts about the 60-year incumbency recoiled on him. The Mahagathbandhan (MGB) formed by the JD(U), RJD and the Congress not only overcame the humongous weight of its incumbency to win the election, it won a larger share of votes than the winning JD-(U)-BJP alliance of 2010. The MGB won 178 seats for 42 per cent against the JD(U)-BJP’s 206 seats for 39 per cent. The odds don’t end here. Kumar and Yadav struck up a friendship that most judged as doomed – not simply because of their ruinous previous enmity but because structurally their constituencies were seen to be in conflict. Kumar and Yadav had similar ambitions and self-image; each saw himself as Bihar’s pre-eminent leader which is why they broke up. Both competed for the Muslim vote and wanted sole leadership of the community. On the other hand, Kumar’s core Kurmi vote was hostile to the Yadavs. Nor was the Congress a natural fit in this alliance as Kumar and Yadav, both products of the Jayaprakash Narayan movement, cut their teeth in anti-Congress politics. The widely shared pre-election opinion was that lack of chemistry among the constituencies would torpedo the MGB even if it had arithmetic on its side. However, Kumar’s high stakes gamble paid off. The major reason for this was his own hard work and the visible improvement in Bihar’s social and economic indicators during his years in office. Yadav’s iron-clad hold on his Muslim-Yadav constituency and Modi’s declining appeal and his fostering of an environment that threatened minorities and Hindu backward segments contributed the rest. Yet, this triumph goes all the way to that one moment when Kumar decided to split from the BJP. The JD(U)-BJP alliance endured for 17 years and had delivered the elusive Chief-ministerial chair to Kumar. However, the pact also became a gilded cage from which he could not escape. Indeed, the Bihar Chief Minister seemed to hover on the brink forever, not having the courage to break free. Ahead of the 2009 general election, Kumar had a flaming row with the BJP over what he saw as Modi’s interference in Bihar. And things came to such a pass that a separation seemed inevitable. Modi had long been the fly in the ointment in Kumar’s relationship with the BJP. Undoubtedly, this can be seen as posturing. For Kumar stayed with the BJP through the horrific 2002 anti-Muslim violence in Gujarat. Secondly, he differentiated between Modi and the BJP, choosing to see only the former as communal. Like many of the BJP’s former allies, Kumar gave an exalted place to Atal Bihari Vajpayee and came around to accepting Lal Krishna Advani as his successor. This was a flawed and problematic approach because Modi, Vajpayee and Advani are all swayamsevaks committed to Hindutva and inseparably linked to the virulently right wing Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. Vajpayee memorably authored the essay “The Sangh is my soul” and was a student of class X when he penned the poem, Hindu Tan Man , Hindu Jeevan (I’m a Hindu in body and mind and my life is of a Hindu). History of course bears witness to the death and devastation that Advani’s Ram rath yatra left behind. Unarguably, though, Modi is the most sectarian face of the BJP. And Kumar, who artfully juggled two personas, nursing the Muslim constituency on the one hand and ‘living in’ with the BJP on the other, drew the line at Modi. As long as Modi was a regional leader confined to Gujarat, Kumar did not have overt problems with him. Because within Bihar, Kumar had kept the BJP under his thumb. His message seemed to be that though in alliance with the BJP, he would never give up on his secular convictions. This delicate balance came apart when Modi’s ambitions began to soar. If Kumar disliked and resented Modi, the latter in turn saw Kumar as a challenge to his growing clout and aspirations. But his way of dealing with Kumar was to provoke and needle him. Sparks flew when the secular Kumar and the sectarian Modi came face to face. Sankarshan Thakur writes in his book, The Brothers Bihari, that Kumar’s aversion to Modi increased manifold after the latter deliberately compromised the Bihar Chief Minister by forcing himself into a photo-op with him. The occasion was a BJP rally held in Ludhiana ahead of the 2009 general election. To quote Thakur: “He (Kumar) had barely set foot on the crowded stage when Narendra Modi, having quickmarched from the other end, took his hand and held it aloft for the crowd to see. A cheer went up that must have buzzed like a fly in Nitish’s ears. Cameras popped and Nitish must have felt like he was being shot. It was over in a trice. Before Nitish could recover his wits, Modi had left him and retreated to his appointed place on the dais…” The next morning’s newspapers predictably flashed this picture, leaving Kumar foaming at the mouth but unable to deny what the photograph showed. Despite this `deception’, Kumar did not exit the BJP alliance, though his counterpart in Orissa, and a fellow member of the National Democratic Alliance, Naveen Patnaik, had set an example by doing so on the eve of the 2009 general election. The BJP-Biju Janata Dal alliance had been dazzlingly successful. Between 1998 and 2009, the alliance won two state elections in a row besides picking up the majority of seats in three consecutive elections to the Lok Sabha. The alliance had reduced the once dominant Congress to a marginal player. So to most onlookers, Patnaik’s daring had seemed suicidal. But Patnaik proved that voters respected action grounded in principles. In the 2009 election, held simultaneously to the Lok Sabha and the assembly, the BJD increased its vote share by 7 percentage points in the Lok Sabha and by over 11 percentage points in the assembly. In terms of seats too, the BJD swept the elections, leaving its former ally with no seat in the Lok Sabha and only 7 in the assembly. Kumar obviously had his own difficult background to consider. Unlike Patnaik who has never tasted failure in politics, Kumar had had a long, tiring wait to become the Chief Minister. In 2000, he was in office for all of nine days, not being able to prove his majority. Around this time, Kumar's opponents began to joke about his jinxed fate. An aide of Lalu Yadav would fondly tell journalists that he had read Kumar's horoscope and he saw no sign of fame or fortune there. The high office eluded Kumar even after the landmark February 2005 election, which saw the Lalu Yadav -Rabri Devi twosome exit the scene after holding sway for 15 long years. So clearly Kumar’s was a risk-averse position: if he fought the election on his own, he could lose the Chief Ministership which had come to him after a gruelling struggle. Thus Kumar embodied two opposite impulses: his happy cohabitation with the BJP and his abhorrence of Modi. In June 2010, Modi once again provoked Kumar by making an unsolicited contribution of Rs. 5 crore towards flood relief in Bihar. Not only this, he had his party plaster Patna with posters announcing this grand deed. The appearance of the posters coincided with the BJP’s decision to hold its national executive meet in Patna. Kumar was not in Patna at the time, and unaware of Modi’s mischief, he had invited the BJP delegation for a dinner at home. As Thakur notes in his book, “When the morning’s papers were brought to Nitish the next day, what he saw left him so irate he couldn’t hold his cup of tea straight.