DrDr GavinGavin MM MuddMudd# DrDr JamesJames DD WardWard Env Eng, Monash Uni SCPES, Flinders Uni PeakPeak MineralsMinerals vv SustainableSustainable MiningMining DecemberDecember 20082008 3rd Int. Conf. on Sustainability Engineering & Science, Auckland, New Zealand eng.monash.edu.au/enveng LoyLoy YangYang brownbrown coalcoal mine,mine, AustraliaAustralia 3rd Int Conf on Sustainability Eng/Sci : Sustainable Mining v Peak Minerals ? /2 Institute for Sustainable Water Resources Courtesy: Nicholson Cartoons (www.nicholsoncartoons.com.au) 3rd Int Conf on Sustainability Eng/Sci : Sustainable Mining v Peak Minerals ? /3 Institute for Sustainable Water Resources SustainableSustainable MiningMining vv PeakPeak MineralsMinerals?? •• MiningMining aa ‘‘finitefinite’’ mineralmineral resourcesresources isis almostalmost universallyuniversally acceptedaccepted asas ‘‘unsustainableunsustainable’’:: –– yetyet mineralmineral && metalmetal productionproduction isis biggerbigger todaytoday thanthan everever andand stillstill growinggrowing •• TypicallyTypically twotwo dominantdominant viewsviews –– ““LimitsLimits toto GrowthGrowth”” (ie.(ie. unsustainable)unsustainable) oror ““technologytechnology -- marketsmarkets--demanddemand == solutionssolutions”” ((‘‘sustainablesustainable’’)) •• EasyEasy toto findfind goodgood evidenceevidence forfor bothboth sidessides …… ButBut whatwhat aboutabout ‘‘PEAKPEAK OILOIL’’ →→ ““PEAKPEAK MINERALSMINERALS”” tootoo ?? 3rd Int Conf on Sustainability Eng/Sci : Sustainable Mining v Peak Minerals ? /4 Institute for Sustainable Water Resources PEAKPEAK OILOIL …… ‘‘101101’’ •• WidespreadWidespread debatedebate aboutabout ‘‘PeakPeak OilOil’’:: – will it occur, has it occurred, if not when, or never … •• MM KingKing HubbertHubbert firstfirst appliedapplied systematicsystematic analysesanalyses ofof oiloil productionproduction toto USUS mainlandmainland inin thethe 19501950’’ss –– && (correctly)(correctly) predictedpredicted productionproduction wouldwould peakpeak aroundaround 19701970 •• BasedBased onon simplesimple assumptionsassumptions ofof aa finitefinite resourceresource andand allall oiloil wellswells followingfollowing aa basicbasic bellbell curvecurve :: cumulativecumulative countrycountry == samesame 3rd Int Conf on Sustainability Eng/Sci : Sustainable Mining v Peak Minerals ? /5 Institute for Sustainable Water Resources HubbertHubbert’’ss (in)(in)‘‘famousfamous’’ 19561956 CurveCurve • Hubbert’s 1956 prediction of mainland US oil production, including historical data • Some key assumptions … but assumes “finite” oil 3rd Int Conf on Sustainability Eng/Sci : Sustainable Mining v Peak Minerals ? /6 Institute for Sustainable Water Resources ProductionProduction ProductionProduction ProductionProduction …… 420 2,450 Black Coal (Mt) Brown Coal (Mt) Iron Ore (Mt) Bauxite (Mt) 360 2,100 Gold (t) Uranium (kt UU3O8)3O8) Diamonds (Mcarats) Copper (kt) 300 Lead (kt) Zinc (kt) 1,750 Silver (kg) Nickel (kt) 240 1,400 180 1,050 120 700 Annual Production (Cu, Pb-Zn-Ag, Ni) Pb-Zn-Ag, Annual Production (Cu, 60 350 Annual Production (Coal, Fe ore, Bauxite, Diamonds, Au, U) 0 0 1825 1840 1855 1870 1885 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 3rd Int Conf on Sustainability Eng/Sci : Sustainable Mining v Peak Minerals ? /7 Institute for Sustainable Water Resources TrendsTrends inin OreOre GradesGrades …… ↓↓ ↓↓ ↓↓ ↓↓ 40 2,600 Copper (%Cu) (Ag, 1884 - 3,506 g/t) Gold (g/t) 35 2,275 Lead (%Pb) Zinc (%Zn) 30 Uranium (kg/t(kg/t U3O8) U3O8) 1,950 Nickel (%Ni) 25 Diamonds (carats/t) 1,625 Silver (g/t) 20 1,300 15 975 Ore Grade (Ag) 10 650 Ore Grades (Cu, Pb, Zn, Au, Ni, U, Diamonds) 5 325 0 0 1840 1855 1870 1885 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 3rd Int Conf on Sustainability Eng/Sci : Sustainable Mining v Peak Minerals ? /8 Institute for Sustainable Water Resources TrendsTrends inin EconomicEconomic ResourcesResources …… 60 1.8 Black Coal (Gt) Brown Coal (Gt) Iron Ore (Gt) Bauxite (Gt) 1.6 50 Copper (Mt) Gold (kt) Nickel (Mt) Lead (Mt) 1.4 Zinc (Mt) Uranium (Mt(Mt U 3 O 8 ) 40 1.2 1 30 0.8 Economic Resources 20 0.6 Economic Resources (U only) (U Resources Economic 0.4 10 0.2 0 0 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 3rd Int Conf on Sustainability Eng/Sci : Sustainable Mining v Peak Minerals ? /9 Institute for Sustainable Water Resources SustainableSustainable MiningMining …… •• UnlikeUnlike previousprevious miningmining booms,booms, thethe currentcurrent boomboom isis notnot onlyonly unprecedentedunprecedented inin scalescale butbut isis alsoalso claimedclaimed toto bebe ‘‘sustainablesustainable’’ •• ButBut cancan wewe assumeassume thethe patternspatterns ofof thethe pastpast willwill continuecontinue intointo thethe futurefuture –– –– ieie.. cancan miningmining aa ‘‘finitefinite’’ resourceresource everever troollytroolly bebe ‘‘sustainablesustainable’’ ???????? •• Ultimately,Ultimately, thethe worldworld maymay notnot runrun outout ofof mineral/metalmineral/metal resourcesresources –– butbut energy,energy, water,water, wasteswastes etc.etc. willwill leadlead toto limitslimits …… 3rd Int Conf on Sustainability Eng/Sci : Sustainable Mining v Peak Minerals ? /10 Institute for Sustainable Water Resources SustainableSustainable MiningMining …… Saudi’s Ahmed Zaki Yamani: “The Stone Age came to an end not for the lack of stones and the oil age will end, but not for the lack of oil” (Yamani was Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister from 1962 to 1986) 3rd Int Conf on Sustainability Eng/Sci : Sustainable Mining v Peak Minerals ? /11 Institute for Sustainable Water Resources PeakPeak MineralsMinerals vv SustainabilitySustainability LimitsLimits •• GivenGiven thethe urgenturgent multiplemultiple prongsprongs ofof development,development, population,population, climateclimate changechange andand environmentalenvironmental degradation,degradation, itit isis clearclear thatthat thethe patternspatterns ofof thethe pastpast areare notnot sustainablesustainable intointo thethe futurefuture …… •• ButBut howhow dodo wewe combinecombine bellbell curvescurves && sustainabilitysustainability limitslimits ?? •• ThroughThrough linkinglinking energy,energy, waterwater && costscosts toto mineralmineral production,production, wewe cancan developdevelop scenariosscenarios forfor thethe futurefuture miningmining industryindustry …… 3rd Int Conf on Sustainability Eng/Sci : Sustainable Mining v Peak Minerals ? /12 Institute for Sustainable Water Resources HubbertHubbert PeakPeak Curves:Curves: AuAu && CuCu Actual USA Actual AUSTRALIA Actual CANADA 350 350 350 Modelled Modelled Modelled 300 300 300 250 250 250 GOLDGOLD 200 200 200 150 150 150 ???? Annual Gold Production (t Au) Annual Gold Production (t Au) Annual Gold Production (t Au) 100 100 100 50 50 50 0 0 0 1825 1875 1925 1975 2025 2075 2125 2175 1825 1875 1925 1975 2025 2075 2125 2175 1825 1875 1925 1975 2025 2075 2125 2175 2.4 2.4 2.4 Actual USA Actual AUSTRALIA Actual CANADA Modelled Modelled Modelled 2 2 2 1.6 1.6 1.6 COPPERCOPPER 1.2 1.2 1.2 ok?ok? 0.8 0.8 0.8 Annual Copper Production (ktCu) Annual Copper Production (ktCu) Annual Copper Production (ktCu) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0 0 0 1825 1875 1925 1975 2025 2075 2125 2175 1825 1875 1925 1975 2025 2075 2125 2175 1825 1875 1925 1975 2025 2075 2125 2175 3rd Int Conf on Sustainability Eng/Sci : Sustainable Mining v Peak Minerals ? /13 Institute for Sustainable Water Resources Gold:Gold: COCO2 vv MiningMining •• AsAs goldgold oreore gradesgrades decline,decline, therethere isis anan increasingincreasing environmentalenvironmental costcost (GJ,(GJ, COCO2,, ……)) 600 50 Note, excludes points: Note, excludes points: (82.39, 21.9; 77.1, 22.9) (82.39, 0.2; 77.1, 0.2) (0.64, 1,075.6; 5.3; 630.6) (0.64, 74.6; 2.3; 64.3) 500 40 /kg Au) 2 400 30 300 y = 156.27x-0.2793 20 -0.4379 R2 = 0.1493 y = 15.591x R2 = 0.2248 200 Unit Energy Costs (GJ/kg Au) 10 100 CO (kg Emissions Greenhouse Unit 0 0 0 1020304050 0 1020304050 Ore Grade (g/t Au) Ore Grade (g/t Au) 3rd Int Conf on Sustainability Eng/Sci : Sustainable Mining v Peak Minerals ? /14 Institute for Sustainable Water Resources MiningMining SustySusty PeaksPeaks vv TroughsTroughs …… 60 250 CO2-Limited Future Gold Production (t Au) 50 200 Unit CO Emissions 40 2 (t CO2/kg Au) 150 30 Hubbert-based 100 Future Gold Production 20 (t Au) Projected Annual Gold Production (t Au) Ore Grade; Unit and Total CO2 Emissions and Total Unit Grade; Ore 50 10 Total CO2 Emissions (Mt CO2) (Constant Production) Ore Grade (g/t) 0 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 3rd Int Conf on Sustainability Eng/Sci : Sustainable Mining v Peak Minerals ? /15 Institute for Sustainable Water Resources OngoingOngoing ThoughtsThoughts …… (TI&B?)(TI&B?) •• ForFor manymany countries,countries, therethere remainsremains reasonablyreasonably abundantabundant mineralmineral resources,resources, thoughthough ofof graduallygradually decliningdeclining qualityquality •• ToTo meetmeet futurefuture globalglobal developmentdevelopment demands,demands, miningmining lookslooks setset toto continuecontinue toto growgrow forfor somesome timetime •• SomeSome keykey assumptionsassumptions varyvary betweenbetween ‘‘PeakPeak OilOil’’ andand ‘‘PeakPeak MineralsMinerals’’ –– particularlyparticularly betweenbetween mineralsminerals && metalsmetals …… •• FutureFuture impactsimpacts ofof climateclimate changechange …… ?????? 3rd Int Conf on Sustainability Eng/Sci : Sustainable Mining v Peak Minerals ? /16 Institute for Sustainable Water Resources AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements •• NumerousNumerous ColleaguesColleagues (Monash,(Monash, Zaragoza,Zaragoza, UNSW,UNSW, NGONGO’’ss,, government,government, industry,industry, ……)) •• MineralMineral PolicyPolicy InstituteInstitute (MPI)(MPI) •• VickyVicky –– thethe legendlegend –– AdinAdin 3rd Int Conf on Sustainability Eng/Sci : Sustainable Mining v Peak Minerals ? /17 Institute for Sustainable Water Resources.