NASA/CR-2017-219671 Management by Trajectory: Trajectory Management Study Report Kenneth Leiden, Stephen Atkins, Alicia D. Fernandes, and Curt Kaler, Mosaic ATM, Inc., Leesburg, Virginia Alan Bell and Todd Kilbourne Systems Enginuity, Inc., Manassas, Virginia Mark Evans Independent Consultant, Tarpon Springs, Florida September 2017 NASA STI Program . in Profile Since its founding, NASA has been dedicated to the • CONFERENCE PUBLICATION. advancement of aeronautics and space science. The Collected papers from scientific and technical NASA scientific and technical information (STI) conferences, symposia, seminars, or other program plays a key part in helping NASA maintain meetings sponsored or co-sponsored by NASA. this important role. • SPECIAL PUBLICATION. Scientific, The NASA STI program operates under the auspices technical, or historical information from NASA of the Agency Chief Information Officer. 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Fernandes, and Curt Kaler, Mosaic ATM, Inc., Leesburg, Virginia Alan Bell and Todd Kilbourne Systems Enginuity, Inc., Manassas, Virginia Mark Evans Independent Consultant, Tarpon Springs, Florida National Aeronautics and Space Administration Prepared for NASA Langley Research Center NASA Langley Research Center Under contract #NNL16AA17C Hampton, Virginia 23681-2199 September 2017 Acknowledgments The Management by Trajectory (MBT) research team gratefully acknowledges the support of the NASA Langley Trajectory Based Operations team and the input from Mike Jackson of Honeywell. The use of trademarks or names of manufacturers in this report is for accurate reporting and does not constitute an official endorsement, either expressed or implied, of such products or manufacturers by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Executive Summary In order to realize the full potential of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), improved management along planned trajectories between air navigation service providers (ANSPs) and system users (e.g., pilots and airline dispatchers) is needed. Future automation improvements and increased data communications between aircraft and ground automation would make the concept of Management by Trajectory (MBT) possible. Key components of an MBT concept include: The ability for air traffic controllers and managers to quickly generate, evaluate and implement changes to an aircraft’s trajectory. Imposing constraints on flight operator-preferred trajectories only to the extent necessary to maintain safe and efficient traffic flows. A method for the exchange of trajectory information between ground automation systems and the aircraft that allows for trajectory synchronization and trajectory negotiation. MBT addresses shortfalls that remain in the Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) solution set, despite years of research into various aspects of transitioning from the current airspace environment to TBO. This report is the result of a survey of this research, as well as enabling technologies. The report provides insights into previous related concepts and technologies, with a particular focus on lessons that can be applied to the MBT concept development and evaluation effort in order to improve the feasibility and ultimate adoption of MBT. Specifically, for each topic covered in the study, the report identifies roadblocks to adoption and/or enablers that should be considered in MBT concept development. The objectives of this study are to describe previous attempts at developing and/or implementing MBT concepts and concept elements. The description of these efforts identify: Likely reasons why previous MBT concept elements have not been fully adopted. Portions of previous concepts that have been adopted and the likely enablers of these adoptions. Whether there is growing consensus, or lack thereof, about aspects of MBT concept elements. Key findings determined from this study include the following: 1. During the original Controller-Pilot Data Link Communication (CPDLC) program, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) had identified airborne reroutes as a benefit mechanism, but did not have the modeling tools to assess the benefit. Had the FAA included the reroutes benefit mechanism, users may have seen a tangible benefit that would support a decision to invest in CPDLC equipment. Voice communication of complex reroutes is impractical for widespread use in the National Airspace System (NAS). The nine-year deferment of data link capabilities has slowed progress toward TBO in general, and MBT in particular. Future MBT cost/benefits assessment should: a) identify benefit mechanisms that are tangible to users; b) identify methods for determining hard-to-assess benefit mechanisms; and c) consider providing financial incentives for flight operators to equip with capabilities that are foundational to the MBT concept. 2. The Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Contract (ADS-C) Extended Projected Profile (EPP) report appears to be the only capability on the horizon with any 1 momentum that can be utilized for sharing complete (or near-complete) flight management system (FMS) trajectory intent with ANSP ground systems. However, there is no mandate to equip aircraft to provide the EPP report, which is expected to be very expensive. The MBT concept should include a concept variant that assumes the EPP report will not be available to provide intent for a high percentage of aircraft. However, for aircraft that cannot downlink the EPP report, managing aircraft trajectory prediction uncertainty will be more difficult, lessening the effectiveness of MBT. However, as noted below, there is a fast-growing industry and suite of technologies that may mitigate this impediment to full MBT implementation. 3. The wide range of FMS capabilities in the NAS that currently exists and will continue to exist for decades into the future results in a mixed capability environment. The MBT concept will have to consider the best approach for addressing the mixed capability environment on a concept element by concept element basis. It may be necessary to determine what “best equipped, best served” means for each MBT concept element. 4. High cost inhibits low-cost carriers from implementing in-flight connectivity (IFC) to the internet. Low-cost carriers may not be able to leverage electronic flight bag (EFB) applications and System Wide Information Management (SWIM) information. Thus, certain benefits of MBT (e.g., effective trajectory negotiation) that rely on dynamic information may not be attainable to them. 5. There are many letters of agreement (LOAs) and standard operating procedures (SOPs) that can change the aircraft trajectory but are unknown to the pilot and are not available in an FMS database. Furthermore, trajectory changes (e.g., altitude and speed restrictions) due to these procedures often put the aircraft on an open trajectory. LOAs and SOPs place constraints on aircraft trajectories that today are not published, and FMSs have limited database capacity to add the data associated with these SOPs and LOAs. MBT should account for these constraints and their effect on trajectories and trajectory negotiation. 6. Trajectory uncertainty causes controllers to use tactical clearances, which tend to be open trajectory clearances. Without the automation support for closed trajectories, controllers will continue to use open trajectory techniques. Open trajectory clearances exacerbate the trajectory