THE ROLE OF MEDIA IN THE SYRIAN AND YEMENI CONFLICTS: THE EFFECT OF US AND SAUDI MEDIA COVERAGE IN THEIR FOREIGN INTERVENTIONS A Thesis submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of Georgetown University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Arab Studies By Ada Mullol, M.A. Washington, DC April 10, 2018 Copyright 2018 by Ada Mullol All Rights Reserved ii I dedicate this thesis to my mother, my father, and my brother, who, despite being 6,500 km away and in 6 hours time difference, have been right beside me and supported me every step of the way. And to my grandparents, who would have been filled with joy seeing me achieve my dreams. Gràcies. I am deeply grateful to Prof. Diana Owen, my thesis advisor, and Prof. Marwa Daoudy, my thesis reader, for their detailed comments, suggestions, and valuable lessons. I would also like to show my gratitude to Prof. Vicki Valosick, Dede, Samah, and Mahdi, for all their support and for sharing this year-long journey. And also to all my classmates, faculty, and friends, who supported and taught me, showed interest in my research along the way – and, surprisingly, didn’t get tired of me going over it again and again. Thank you, Ada Mullol iii TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION …………………………………………………………………………… 1 CHAPTER 1. LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ……………………. 8 International Relations And Foreign Policymaking……………………………… 8 Media And Foreign Policymaking……………………………………………….. 11 CHAPTER 2. CASE STUDIES ………………………………………………………………. 21 The Syrian Civil War (2011-Present) …………………………………………… 21 The onset: an unpredicted uprising ……………………………………… 21 The particularity of the Syrian uprising: a civil war …………………….. 22 A regional war, a proxy war ……………………………………………... 26 The Yemeni Civil War (2015-Present) ………………………………………….. 29 The onset: a delayed consequence of the uprisings ……………………… 29 The shift towards a civil war …………………………………………….. 31 A regional war, a proxy war ……………………………………… ……... 33 CHAPTER 3. METHODOLOGY……………………………………………………………… 35 Case Studies……………………………………………………………………… 35 Sample Selection………………………………………………………..………... 36 Data Analysis…………………………………………………………………….. 38 The unit of analysis………………………………………………………. 38 Content analysis …………………………………………………………. 42 Media’s closeness to the conflict…………………………………. 42 Location of the media coverage…………………………... 42 Authorship of the news items……………….……………. 43 iv Types of sources…………………….…..………………… 43 Priming and hierarchy of the news ………………………………. 44 Section……………………………………………………. 44 Physical positioning ……………………………………… 45 Length of the news items……….………………………… 45 Media frames and themes………………………………………… 46 Main Themes……………………………………………… 46 Words’ choice…………………………………………….. 47 Media’s political positioning……………………………………... 47 Political positioning of the headlines.…………………….. 48 Political positioning of the body of the news items………. 48 Interviews………………………………………………………………………… 49 Quantitative Statistical Analysis…………………………………………………. 50 Student’s t-test……………………………………………………………. 50 Logistic regression analysis………………………………………………. 50 CHAPTER 4. RESULTS …………………………………………………………………….. 52 Media Coverage Comparisons…………………………………………………… 52 Description of the results ………………………………………………… 52 Media’s closeness to the conflict…………………………………. 52 Location of the media coverage ………………………….. 52 Authorship of the news items…………………………….. 54 Types of sources………………………………………….. 56 Priming and hierarchy of the news ………………………………. 58 Section……………………………..………………..…….. 58 v Physical positioning of the news items …………………... 59 Length of the news items…………………………………. 59 Media frames and themes………………………………………… 61 Main Themes……………………………………………… 61 Words’ choice…………………………………………….. 63 Media’s political positioning……………………………… ……... 66 Political positioning of the headlines and bodies of the news items………………………… 66 Findings of the study of media coverage comparisons ………………….. 70 Effect Of Media Coverage On Foreign Policymaking…………………………… 72 Selection of variables for the study on media’s effect (Chi-Square analysis)…………………………… 72 Study of media’s effect on foreign policymaking (LRA) ……….………. 76 Description of the results…………………………………………. 77 Findings of the study on media’s effect on foreign policymaking.. 80 CHAPTER 5. DISCUSSION………………………………………………………………….. 82 Media Coverage Comparisons…………………………………………………… 82 Media Coverage Influence On Foreign Policymaking ………………………….. 98 CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS OF THE STUDY ………………………………………. 106 APPENDIX A. HEADLINES OF THE ANALYZED NEWS ITEMS ……………………………… 111 APPENDIX B. METHODOLOGY: DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLES ……………………………. 119 APPENDIX C. CHI-SQUARE ANALYSIS ……………………………………………………. 120 BIBLIOGRAPHY …………………………………………………………………………… 121 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Evolution of the Syrian conflict (2011-present) ………………………………. 40 Figure 2. Evolution of the Yemeni conflict (2015-present) ……………………………... 42 LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Selected events………………………………………………………………….. 36 Table 2. Selected media………………………………………………………………….. 37 Table 3. Syrian conflict: dates……………………………………………………………. 40 Table 4. Yemeni conflict: dates………………………………………………………….. 41 Table 5. Comparison results: Location of the media coverage…………………………... 54 Table 6. Comparison results: Authorship of the news items…………………………….. 56 Table 7. Comparison results: Types of sources………………………………………….. 58 Table 8. Comparison results: Length of the news items…………………………………. 60 Table 9. Comparison results: Main themes………………….…………………………… 62 Table 10. Comparison results: Types of words in the news items…….…………………. 64 Table 11. Comparison results: Political positioning of the news items …………………. 68 Table 12. Chi-square analysis: Media’s closeness to the conflict………………………... 73 Table 13. Chi-square analysis: Media frames and main themes…………………………. 74 Table 14. Chi-square analysis: Political positioning of the news items………………….. 75 Table 15. Logistic regression analysis results (n=153)…………………… ……………... 78 vii “Journalism is the first rough draft of history” Philip Graham, publisher, Washington Post (1963) Introduction The emergence of new technologies associated with globalization has increased the accessibility of international news in real time for the public in very distant countries. In addition to easier accessibility, some scholars have pointed out media’s increasing influence on foreign policy (Goldsborough 1997, 1; Bloch-Elkon 2007, 20; Fitzsimmons 2007, 1; Gilboa et al., 2016, 654), especially regarding conflicts (Hjarvard and Kristensen 2014, 51; Gilboa et al., 2016, 654). This influence was demonstrated during the First Gulf War (1990-1991), following the media coverage about which the term “CNN effect” was coined – as the effect that media coverage of humanitarian crisis could have on policy shifts (Gilboa 2005, 29); it was reinforced during the war in Bosnia (Goldsborough 1997, 1-3). In the 2000s, however, the emergence of Internet and other information technologies and networks and their growing influence on global politics created a new trend against American hegemony. This phenomenon was called “the Al-Jazeera effect,” given Al Jazeera’s growing importance and the role it played in the Second Gulf War, which is similar to the one played by CNN in the previous decade. Al Jazeera channel, launched in 1996 and funded by the government of Qatar, has become one of the news channels with a higher audience in the Middle East and North Africa, creating a powerful arena for non-Western narratives and viewpoints (Zayani 2005, 30; Coban 2016, 47-48). With this study I intend to improve conflict resolution strategies, shedding light on the role that international media, both from the West and from the Arab World, can play in conflict resolution processes. 1 Since the “CNN effect” was conceptualized in the early 1990s, several studies have attempted to analyze separately two relationships. The first relationship is between media coverage and public opinion (Everts 2000; Nelson 2001; Nacos et al., 2006, all quoted in Bloch-Elkon 2007, 22). Media coverage, on the one hand, is understood as the daily activity of mass media within national or linguistic communities that create and distribute actuality content for the masses (Meulemann and Hagenah 2009, 2). Public opinion, on the other hand, encompasses collective attitudes on matters of concern to the nation freely and publicly expressed by people outside the government who claim a right that their opinions should influence or determine the actions of their government (Speier 1950, 376). The second relationship is between public opinion and policymaking, as in more or less democratic settings policymakers are accountable to the public as their source of legitimacy (Bennet and Paletz 1994; Duncan et al., 2003, all quoted in Bloch-Elkon 2007, 22). When tackling the possible influence of media coverage on foreign policymaking, influence is a term that remains difficult to define, despite being a basic concept in political science. This is due, in part, to the fact that influence is closely linked to another crucial concept that has also proved hard to define: power (Betsill and Corell 2001, 72). Nye, for instance, defines power as the ability to do things and control others to achieve the desired objectives (Nye 1990, 154-156). Foreseeing that the sources of power in world politics were “likely to undergo major changes”, Nye also asserted that “proof of power lies not in resources but in the ability to change the behavior of states” (Nye 1990, 155). Scruton considers influence to be a form of power, distinct from