Catalan uprising: a matter of inclusion? An in-depth case study of decentralization and secessionism in Spain and Catalonia Andrés Durante Bachelor Thesis Uppsala University, Spring 2018 Department of Government Supervisor: Niklas Bremberg Words: 13379 Pages: 39 Abstract The scholarly field on decentralization and its relationship with secessionism is divided. Two camps can be distinguished, with opposite conclusions concerning the merits of autonomy concessions. A lack of systematic attention given to the varying capacity of decentralization to produce contrary outcomes has been identified. To address this, an in-depth case analysis on decentralization and secessionism in Spain and Catalonia was conducted. Using a theoretically- guided process tracing approach, this study explores the role of the state on the causal argument. Main findings suggest an increase in secessionist activity when full inclusion through central power sharing arrangements within the state’s executive organs is absent or limited. Keywords: decentralization, secessionism, autonomy, power sharing, Spain, Catalonia Table of contents LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES ......................................................................................................... 1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................... 1 2 THEORY ..................................................................................................................................... 2 2.1 Definitions ...................................................................................................................................... 2 2.2 Literature review............................................................................................................................ 4 2.3 Theoretical framework .................................................................................................................. 6 3 METHOD ................................................................................................................................... 9 3.1 Operationalization of dependent and independent variables ...................................................... 9 3.1.1 Dependent variable ................................................................................................................ 9 3.1.2 Independent variable .............................................................................................................. 9 3.2 Operationalization of causal mechanism .................................................................................... 10 3.2.1 Causal mechanism hypotheses ............................................................................................. 10 3.3 Validity and reliability .................................................................................................................. 10 3.4 Case selection .............................................................................................................................. 11 3.5 Process tracing ............................................................................................................................. 13 3.6 Sources of empirical material ...................................................................................................... 14 4 EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................... 15 4.1 Spain and Catalonia ..................................................................................................................... 15 4.1.1 Dependent variable .............................................................................................................. 15 4.1.2 Independent variable ............................................................................................................ 17 4.2 1978-1983: Autonomy pacts ....................................................................................................... 17 4.2.1 H1: “Implement regional autonomy concessions and power sharing arrangements” ........ 18 4.2.2 Interpretation ....................................................................................................................... 19 4.2.3 Alternative explanation(s) .................................................................................................... 20 4.3 1983-2000: Demands for greater autonomy ............................................................................... 21 4.3.1 H2: “Demand increased self-governance and pressure the state through substantial means obtained from autonomy concessions” ......................................................................................... 21 4.3.2 Interpretation ....................................................................................................................... 23 4.3.3 Alternative explanation(s) .................................................................................................... 24 4.4 2000-2010: Resistance from the central government................................................................. 24 4.4.1 H3: “Deny demands for greater autonomy, produce unfavorable policies and/or attempt recentralization” ............................................................................................................................ 24 4.4.2 Interpretation ....................................................................................................................... 27 4.4.3 Alternative explanation(s) .................................................................................................... 27 4.5 2010-present: Catalan uprising.................................................................................................... 27 4.5.1 H4: “Mobilize against a perceived unfair treatment of the state” ....................................... 27 4.5.2 Interpretation ....................................................................................................................... 29 4.5.3 Alternative explanation(s) .................................................................................................... 30 4.6 Consistency with hypotheses ...................................................................................................... 31 4.7 Limitations ................................................................................................................................... 31 5 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION .................................................................................................. 32 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................... 33 List of figures and tables FIGURE 1. Hypothesized causal mechanism ............................................................................................ 8 FIGURE 2. Reverse causation ................................................................................................................. 21 FIGURE 3. Public opinion in Catalonia 2010-2018 on self-identification ............................................... 29 TABLE 1. Public opinion in Catalonia 2010-2018 on political status...................................................... 28 1 Introduction Does decentralization, a system of government in which there is a vertical division of power, instigate or inhibit secessionism? Despite being subject to extensive study, there is little agreement in the literature. According to some scholars, granting autonomy concessions for ethnic groups promotes new demands for self-governance or even independence while other scholars argue that decentralization arrangements alleviate ethnic tensions and reduces the probability of secessionist conflict. In practice, evidence shows that decentralization has generated mixed results, suggesting an important research gap (see Bakke 2015). As such, to pursue further clarity on this phenomenon, the following research question was developed: “When does decentralization prevent and/or reduce secessionism?” This question is significant because autonomous claims by territorially concentrated ethnic minorities are at the center of the political agenda for many states. By analyzing Spain and Catalonia through a theoretical framework based on the role of the state in secessionist activity, the purpose of this study is to broaden our understanding and explore the different potential causal directions associated with decentralization. Previous research has generally studied cases where conflict has been present but ignored cases where autonomy has had a preventive effect. Also, the interaction between regional autonomy and power sharing at the center has rarely been analyzed and few studies take reverse causation into account (Cederman et al. 2015). In turn, this study aims to make a contribution by addressing these shortcomings. Once regarded as a democratic example of a successfully implemented decentralization model, the Spanish system of government is now under intense scrutiny. Likewise, Catalonia has often been praised for its civic nationalism, yet recent developments suggest a more complex relationship than previously anticipated. A modern Catalan secessionist movement is on the rise, seeking independence from Spain and to establish Catalonia as a sovereign state. The general structure of this study is as follows: the next section introduces conceptual definitions followed by a literature review. Then, the theoretical