The Royal Society For further information and uncertainty Geoengineering the climate: science, governance The Royal Society The Royal Society is a Fellowship of more than 1400 outstanding Science Policy Centre individuals from all areas of science, mathematics, engineering and 6–9 Carlton House Terrace medicine, who form a global scientifi c network of the highest calibre. The London SW1Y 5AG Fellowship is supported by over 130 permanent staff with responsibility for the day-to-day management of the Society and its activities. The Society T +44 (0)20 7451 2500 encourages public debate on key issues involving science, engineering F +44 (0)20 7451 2692 Geoengineering and medicine, and the use of high quality scientifi c advice in policy- E [email protected] making. We are committed to delivering the best independent expert W royalsociety.org advice, drawing upon the experience of the Society’s Fellows and Foreign Members, the wider scientifi c community and relevant stakeholders. the climate In our 350th anniversary year and beyond we are working to achieve fi ve strategic priorities: Science, governance and uncertainty • Invest in future scientifi c leaders and in innovation • Infl uence policymaking with the best scientifi c advice September 2009 • Invigorate science and mathematics education • Increase access to the best science internationally • Inspire an interest in the joy, wonder and excitement of scientifi c discovery September 2009 Society Royal The ISBN 978-0-85403-773-5 ISBN: 978-0-85403-773-5 Centre report 10/09 Science Policy Issued: September 2009 Report 10/09 RS1636 Founded in 1660, the Royal Society is the independent scientific academy of the UK, dedicated to promoting excellence in science 9 780854 037735 Registered Charity No 207043 Price £39 Royal Society policy reports, statements and responses New approaches to biological risk assessment Submission to the NDA consultation on management (July 2009) options for the UK’s separated plutonium Hidden wealth: The contribution of science to service (December 2008) sector innovation Letter to CBD on ground-level ozone (July 2009) (December 2008) Towards a low carbon future Royal Society’s response to a vision for Science and (June 2009) Society: a consultation on developing a new strategy EASAC: Transforming Europe’s electricity supply—full for the UK report and summary (October 2008) (June 2009) Ground-level ozone in the 21st century: future trends, Joint Academies’ statement: Climate change and the impacts and policy implications transformation of energy technologies for a low carbon (October 2008) future Ground-level ozone in the 21st century: summary for (June 2009) policy makers Submission to DFID’s Consultation for its White (October 2008) Paper “Eliminating World Poverty: Assuring our Synthetic biology scientifi c discussion meeting summary Common Future” (August 2008) (June 2009) Royal Society activities on reducing the risk of the Inter-Academy Panel statement on ocean acidifi cation misuse of scientifi c research (June 2009) (August 2008) EASAC: Healthcare-associated infections Innovative mechanisms for tackling antibacterial (May 2009) resistance Submission to the IUSS committee inquiry ’putting (July 2008) science and engineering at the heart of Government Joint science academies’ statement: Climate change policy’ adaptation and the transition to a low carbon society (April 2009) (June 2008) UK-India workshop on food-crop production Joint science academies’ statement: global health (April 2009) (June 2008) Submission to House of Lords Science and Technology Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill brief Committee on nanotechnologies and food (April 2008) (March 2009) Letter to Secretary of State on carbon capture and storage EASAC: Drug-resistant tuberculosis—full report and (April 2008) summary Royal Society submission to the Efra committee call for (March 2009) views on Defra’s scientifi c infrastructure European Academies Science Advisory Council (March 2008) (EASAC): Ecosystem services and biodiversity Royal Society submission to the IUS Committee inquiry in Europe into engineering (February 2009) (March 2008) An integrated approach to infectious disease in the UK Stem cell and embryo research statement (February 2009) (March 2008) Emerging technologies and social change: report Pandemic Infl uenza: report of the follow-up symposium on the third joint Royal Society—Science Council (March 2008) of Japan workshop on new and emerging technologies Detecting nuclear and radiological materials (January 2009) (March 2008) Letter to Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Royal Society submission to DIUS UK science and Change on the management of separated plutonium innovation strategy (December 2008) (February 2008) Cover image from DaisyBall model, by Ginger Booth, http://gingerbooth.com, Copyright © Yale University 1997–2008. The cover image comes from the Daisyworld model developed by Dr. James Lovelock and Professor Andrew Watson, both Fellows of the Royal Society. This conceptual model illustrates the tight coupling between climate and the biosphere through the connection between surface refl ectivity and temperature—white daisies refl ect more and absorb less solar radiation than do dark daisies These reports can be found on the Royal Society’s website (royalsociety.org) thereby keeping the Earth cooler. This is the principle on which Geoengineering by the refl ection of solar radiation is based. Further copies of these reports can be obtained from: Daisyworld has been instrumental in drawing attention to the tight link between the Earth’s surface climate and the presence of living organisms. See: Watson, A. J. and Lovelock, J.E. (1983). Biological homeostasis of the global environment: the parable Science Policy Centre, The Royal Society, of Daisyworld. Tellus 35B, 284–289. 6–9 Carlton House Terrace, London SW1Y 5AG Geoengineering the climate: science, governance and uncertainty RS Policy document 10/09 Issued: September 2009 RS1636 ISBN: 978-0-85403-773-5 © The Royal Society, 2009 Requests to reproduce all or part of this document should be submitted to: The Royal Society Science Policy 6–9 Carlton House Terrace London SW1Y 5AG Tel +44 (0)20 7451 2500 Email [email protected] Web royalsociety.org Design by Franziska Hinz, Royal Society, London Copyedited and Typeset by Techset Composition Limited Geoengineering the climate: science, governance and uncertainty Contents Foreword v Membership of working group vii Summary ix 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Geoengineering 1 1.3 The climate system 1 1.4 Climate change and geoengineering—the policy context 4 1.5 Conduct of the study 6 2 Carbon dioxide removal techniques 9 2.1 Introduction 9 2.2 Land-based CDR methods 10 2.3 Ocean ecosystem methods 16 2.4 Discussion 19 2.5 Conclusion 21 3 Solar radiation management techniques 23 3.1 Introduction 23 3.2 General characteristics of SRM methods 23 3.3 Specifi c techniques 24 3.4 Discussion 34 3.5 Conclusion 36 4 Governance 37 4.1 Introduction 37 4.2 Governance, risk and uncertainty 37 4.3 Ethics 39 4.4 International frameworks 39 4.5 Governance of geoengineering research and development 41 4.6 Public and civil society engagement 42 4.7 Economic factors 44 The Royal Society Geoengineering the Climate I September 2009 I iii 4.8 Option of last resort? 44 4.9 Conclusion 45 5 Discussion 47 5.1 Geoengineering methods and their properties 47 5.2 Criteria and methods for evaluation 47 5.3 Overall evaluation 48 5.4 Human and governance dimensions 50 5.5 Research requirements 52 5.6 Guidance for decision makers 54 5.7 Conclusion 56 6 Conclusions and recommendations 57 6.1 The future of geoengineering 57 6.2 Major characteristics of geoengineering methods 57 6.3 Preliminary evaluation of CDR and SRM methods 58 6.4 Criteria and methods of assessment 59 6.5 Public attitudes and engagement 59 6.6 Governance 60 6.7 Geoengineering research and development 61 7 References 63 8 Annexes 69 8.1 Evaluation criteria 69 8.2 Project terms of reference 70 8.3 Ethics panel 71 8.4 Call for submissions 72 9 Glossary 75 10 Acknowledgements 81 iv I September 2009 I Geoengineering the Climate The Royal Society Foreword Lord Rees of Ludlow OM The continuing rise in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse President of the Royal Society gases, mainly caused by the burning of fossil fuels, is driving changes in the Earth’s climate. The long-term consequences will be exceedingly threatening, especially if nations continue ‘business as usual’ in the coming decades. Most nations now recognise the need to shift to a low-carbon economy, and nothing should divert us from the main priority of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. But if such reductions achieve too little, too late, there will surely be pressure to consider a ‘plan B’—to seek ways to counteract the climatic effects of greenhouse gas emissions by ‘geoengineering’. Many proposals for geoengineering have already been made—but the subject is bedevilled by much doubt and confusion. Some schemes are manifestly far-fetched; others are more credible, and are being investigated by reputable scientists; some are being promoted over-optimistically. In this report, the Royal Society aims to provide an authoritative and balanced assessment of the main geoengineering options. Far more detailed study would be needed before any method could even be seriously considered for deployment on the requisite international scale. Moreover, it is already clear than none offers a ‘silver bullet’, and that some options are far more problematic than others. This report is therefore offered as a clarifi cation of the scientifi c and technical aspects of geoengineering, and as a contribution to debates on climate policy. The Society is grateful to all the members of the Working Group, and especially to John Shepherd, its chairman. We also acknowledge the valuable inputs from the Council’s review group, and the expert support, throughout the exercise, of the Society’s Science Policy team.