Basin Futures Water reform in the Murray-Darling Basin Basin Futures Water reform in the Murray-Darling Basin Edited by Daniel Connell and R. Quentin Grafton THE AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY E PRESS E PRESS Published by ANU E Press The Australian National University Canberra ACT 0200, Australia Email: [email protected] This title is also available online at: http://epress.anu.edu.au National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry Title: Basin futures : water reform in the Murray-Darling basin / edited by Daniel Connell and R. Quentin Grafton. ISBN: 9781921862243 (pbk.) 9781921862250 (ebook) Subjects: Darling River Watershed (Qld. and N.S.W.)--Management. Murray River Watershed (N.S.W.-S. Aust.)--Management. Other Authors/Contributors: Connell, Daniel, 1947- Grafton, R. Quentin, 1962- Dewey Number: 333.730994 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher. Cover design and layout by ANU E Press Cover image: © MDBA; Mouth of the Murray River, by Michael Bell Printed by Griffin Press This edition © 2011 ANU E Press Contents Dedication . ix List of figures . xi List of tables and boxes . xiii Basin Futures: An introduction . xv Part I. Water and the Basin 1. Understanding the Basin and its Dynamics . 1 John Williams 2. Freshwater Ecosystem Conservation: Principles versus policy . 39 Jamie Pittock, C. Max Finlayson 3. Environmental Water: The Benefits of Ecological Goods and Services . 59 Richard H. Norris 4. Climate Change and its Impacts - Current understanding, future directions . 81 Nick Schofield Part II. Communities 5. Basin Bookends, the Community Perspective . 101 Leith Boully, Karlene Maywald 6. The Media and the Guide to the Basin Plan . 115 Åsa Wahlquist 7. Rethinking Community in the Face of Natural Resources Management Challenges . 135 Martin Mulligan 8. Why justice is important . 149 Catherine Gross 9. Indigenous Water Management: Priorities for the next five years . 163 Sue Jackson 10. Water Planning and Dispossession . 179 Jessica K Weir 11. The Future of the Basin: Thriving or dying communities? . 193 Chris Miller v Part III. Legal issues 12. A Sustainable Murray–Darling Basin: The legal challenges . 217 Douglas Fisher 13. Evidentiary Issues with the Implementation of the Sustainability Duty of Care in the Basin Plan . 233 Jennifer McKay Part IV. Economics 14. Economic Costs and Benefits of the Proposed Basin Plan . 245 R. Quentin Grafton 15. Multiple Benefits through the Life Cycle of the Basin Plan . 263 Darla Hatton MacDonald, Rosalind Bark, Dustin Garrick, Onil Banerjee, Jeff Connor, Mark Morrison 16. Modelling Challenges . 277 Qiang Jiang 17. Irrigators, Water Trading, the Environment and Debt: Buying water entitlements for the environment . 291 Henning Bjornlund, Sarah Wheeler, Jeremy Cheesman 18. Economic Perspectives of the Proposed Basin Plan for the Southern Connected Murray . 303 Donna Brennan 19. Managing Risk in the Murray-Darling Basin . 313 John Quiggin Part V. Governance 20. The Role of the Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder . 327 Daniel Connell 21. Improving Water Planning Processes: Priorities for the next five years . 339 Mark Hamstead 22. Connecting Science and Engagement: Setting groundwater extraction limits using a stakeholder-led decision-making process . 351 Stuart Richardson, Ray Evans, Glenn Harrington vi 23. Comparative Perspectives on Basin Governance in the Murray–Darling Basin: Insights from the western United States . 367 Dustin Garrick, Rosalind Bark 24. What Can the Murray–Darling Basin Plan Achieve? Will it be enough? . 385 Neil Byron 25. Planning as Performance: The Murray–Darling Basin Plan . 399 Ray Ison, Philip Wallis 26. Enhancing Collaborative Management in the Basin . 413 Katherine A. Daniell 27. Improving the Basin Plan: Options for consideration . 439 Mike Young Contributors . 449 Index . 457 vii viii To Donna Brennan a significant contributor to public policy in rural Australia ix List of figures Figure 1.1 The large geomorphic features of the Murray–Darling Basin Figure 1.2 Annual rainfall anomaly for the Murray–Darling Basin, 1899–2010 Figure 1.3 Cross-section and oblique views, respectively, of ecological function and the floodplain hydrology of river red-gum forests Figure 1.4 The three major climatic regimes of the Murray–Darling Basin Figure 1.5 Average hydrological fluxes across the Murray–Darling Basin, 1981–2006 Figure 1.6 Murray River inflow, 1891–2008 Figure 1.7 Predicted impacts of future climate on surface-water availability in the river systems of the Murray–Darling Basin Figure 1.8 Run-off projections for 2030, 2050 and 2070 relative to 1990 for the entire Murray–Darling Basin, the northern Basin and the southern Basin under high and medium global-warming scenarios Figure 1.9 Farmers’ terms of trade, 1950–85 ratio of prices received to prices paid Figure 1.10 The annual rainfall anomaly for the Murray–Darling Basin, 1891–2010, and the storage capacity and diversions in the Basin, 1920–94 Figure 2.1 The Murray–Darling Basin showing the location of designated Ramsar wetlands Figure 2.2 Psyche Bend Lagoon on the floodplain of the River Murray near Mildura, Victoria, showing the impact of reduced environmental flows that have led to salinisation, acidification and the death of wetland vegetation Figure 2.3 The links between biodiversity conservation, ecosystem services and human wellbeing Figure 4.1 Annual mean temperature anomaly for the Murray–Darling Basin, 1910–2010, with 15-year running average (black line) Figure 4.2 Annual rainfall spatial trend for the Murray–Darling Basin, 1970–2010 Figure 4.3 Record of annual inflows to the MDB 1892-2008 Figure 4.4 Wet area evapotranspiration (mm) in the MDB, 2030 and 2100 Figure 13.1 The Water Act 2007 and the oversight of some basin plans- why not the entire country? xi Basin Futures Figure 14.1 Relative level of water use in 18 regions and the entire Murray– Darling Basin Figure 14.2 Effects of development on seasonal flows in the Goulburn–Broken and the Murrumbidgee rivers Figure 14.3 Flows at the River Murray mouth (GL/yr) Figure 14.4 ABARE–BRS modelling of effects of reduced watercourse extractions in the Murray–Darling Basin Figure 14.5 Marginal benefits equals marginal costs Figure 16.1 Two-stage approach in the ABARE–BRS study Figure 16.2 Catchment management authority areas Figure 16.3 CSIRO Sustainable Yield regions Figure 16.4 Basin Plan regions Figure 16.5 Regions in the ABARE–BRS Water Trade Model Figure 16.6 Barwon–Darling region in the ABARE–BRS Water Trade Model Figure 16.7 Barwon–Darling region in the proposed Basin Plan Figure 17.1 Plans of where to invest after selling water, 2008–09 Figure 18.1 Seasonal price premiums in the Goulburn trading region, 1999–2009 Figure 22.1 Location of the Peake, Roby and Sherlock Prescribed Wells Areas Figure 22.2 Examples of RCLs based on groundwater levels and confined aquifer pressure as percentage of aquifer thickness Figure 22.3 A flow of tasks that represents the technical process coupled with stakeholder engagement Figure 22.4 Modelled groundwater levels for the Northern Adelaide Plains (green line) compared with the agreed RCL (purple line) Figure 24.1 Water extraction versus environmental outcomes Figure 24.2 Where is the correlation? Figure 24.3 Ecosystem health Figure 25.1 Murray–Darling Basin Guide proposals for whole-of-basin adjustments Figure 25.2 A model of the ‘performance space’ in which the Murray–Darling Basin Plan has to be enacted depicted as a transect through one State (Victoria) and one catchment management authority (Goulburn–Broken Catchment Management Authority) Figure 26.1 Understanding when to involve stakeholders at different levels of engagement xii List of tables and boxes Table 3.1 Ecologically dependent functions, goods and services of rivers Table 4.1 Summary of observations of climate change in the MDB Table 4.2 Summary of future climate-change projections in the MDB Table 4.3 Recent synthesis studies funded by the MDBA Table 8.1 Perceptions of injustice in the NSW study Table 8.2 Perceptions of injustice in the Victorian study Table 8.3 Community injustice framework: some emerging themes from the NSW study Table 15.1 Plan implementation elements with responsible party Table 17.1 Trade attitudes by GMID and NSW Murray in 1998–99 (per cent) Table 17.2 Trade attitudes in GMID in 2003–06 (per cent) Table 17.3 Trade attitudes in GMID and Riverland in 2008–09 (per cent) Table 17.4 Trade attitudes in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, 2010–11 (per cent) Table 18.1 Share of interception activities in consumptive water use and its impact on the cuts to diversions required for SDLs (per cent) Table 18.2 Local environmental water needs and the contribution to downstream uses Table 18.3 Rules governing inter-regional trade in the southern Murray Table 18.4 Modelled and actual market prices over the period 1999–2009 Table 18.5 Expected market prices for water allocations, 2008 baseline, 3000 GL and 4000 GL SDL scenarios Table 18.6 An example analysis of the economic impact of spring flows if reliability is accounted for Table 23.1 Physical and institutional dimensions Table 23.2 Comparative perspective on the Murray–Darling Basin from the western United States: scope for mutual learning Table 25.1 Some of the main metaphors employed by Gittins in his article entitled: ‘Don’t think you can keep on neglecting me, Darling’ Table 26.1 Two sets of questions to investigate for collaborative water management Table 26.2 Potential objectives, resources and decision-making phases that can impact on appropriate choice of methods and participants xiii Basin Futures Table 26.3 Common ‘less interactive’ and ‘more interactive’ stakeholder engagement methods with some of their properties Table 26.4 Barriers to stakeholder engagement and collaborative approaches Boxes Box 26.1 Principles underpinning the MDBA’s approach to stakeholder engagement xiv Basin Futures: An introduction This book represents a remarkable collection of evidence, opinions, proposals and remedies for the troubles that ail the Murray–Darling Basin.