12. CHOICES First Quarrer 1993 Ag policy: Looking ahead What policy changes are in store for agricultural policy under the Clinton administration? Spitze reviews clues from the campaign, new appointments, and economic and policy trends to suggest what might happen. Hathaway and Rossmiller look to the past to understand why policy mistakes have been made and how to avoid future errors. To make their case, they review for us some of the notable agricultural events and policies of the last two decades: the world food crisis, the debt crisis, the European community's CAP, and U. S. agricultural policy in the 1970s and 1980s. Finally, Harrington and Doering start us thinking about the 1995 farm bill with a specific suggestion for new commodity policy. Will their proposal do all they claim, or can better ways be found to reach income stability, budget, environmental and other goals? It is not too early to begin the debate. mD1 Election signals for future agricultural and food policy by R. G. F. Spitze hat new agricultural and food poli­ much of this section, can be found in W cies Lie ahead with the new Admin­ Clinton's book Putting People First, co­ istration? Campaign utterances, election re­ authored with Vice President Gore; the sul ts, ini tial appointments, current economic Clinton Democratic Party acceptance trends, and an evolutionary view of public speech, "A Vision for America;" a campaign policy gives us some clues. issue paper, "Bill Clinton on Agriculture;" the Clinton-Gore position paper, "Rebuild­ From the campaign ing Rural America;" the adopted Demo­ cratic Party Platform, "A New Covenant Campaign rheroricand position papers from With The American People;" and numer­ the U.S.-style election are hardly blueprints ous press reports on the candidates' speeches. for action nor a four-year policy agenda. Yet Clinron's roots are in a relatively low neither are they to be ignored if one is to income,economicallysrruggLingfamilywith understand future political decisions. Un­ both parents employed, living in a small like promises made by party leaders in a town (Hope, Arkansas, population then of parliamentary system, the promises of a 8,600). His formative professional years U.S. presidential candidate represent policy were as attorney aeneral and aovernor of directions toward which the victor hopes to Arkansas, a relatively rural state (population lead a Congress that is independent of the now of 2,400,000, forty-six percent rural, execunve. and the largest metropolitan area being the Thej ust-completed presidential and con­ capital with a population of 480,000). gressional election, as well as the elections in Clinton commonly confronted problems of almost all states and counties, vety likely the part-time farm families of the Ozarks as provided more information than ever be­ fore, in a wider variety of forums, ro inter­ well as commercial farmers of the Missis­ sippi Delta. They produced poultry, soy­ ested citizens. The unprecedented use of the beans, beef cattle, rice, and cotton for do­ diverse formats of debates, talk-shows, and mestic and export markets. He faced the call-in programs, as well as the unusual inadequate infrastructure of small towns, three-candidate contest, augmented the usual survival and growing pains of changing public access to the candidates. regional commercial centers, and a state Furthermore, two ofthe presidential can­ economic base of modest personal incomes didates had extensive records of public ser­ and accumulated wealth. The president's R. G. F. Spitze is professor of vice as president and as a state governor. education reached beyond the public schools agricultural economics, University Written evidence of President Clinton's of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign. policy predispositions, and the basis for continued on page 33 CHOICES First Quaner 1993 .33 peanut/sugar paradigm. Such a shift may tate how commodity programs are oper­ • For More reduce direct outlays, but may result in ated. For example, a 7.5 percent Acreage Information greater economic costs for society than defi­ Reduction Program (ARP) rather than a 10 Eisner, Robert. "Deficits: Which, How ciency payment programs where costs are percent ARP was selected for the 1993 Much, and So What?" The American transparent. Thus, concerns over deficits upland cotton program even though it has Economic Review. 82(1992):295-298. may drive agriculrural policy toward poli­ about $130 million higher outlays. Office ofManagement and Budget . Budget cies that reduce outlays but increase market Baselines, HistoricalData, andAlterna­ distortions and increase social costs. Conclusion tives for the Future. U.S. Government Deficit pressure does not necessarily lead The federal budget deficit has some real conse­ Printing Office, Washington, D.C. to more distortionary programs. The triple quences for the economy and for agriculture. January 1993. base provision of the Omnibus Budget Rec­ Perhapsmoreimpottant is theeffect ofconcern onciliationAct of1990 was perhaps theleast about the deficit on policy debate and policy distorting way to modif}r the basic com­ choices. In some ways discussion of the deficit modity programs to save costs. Triple base itselfhas substituted for or obscured the more reduced payment acres but added flexibility basic debate over the apptopriate level of gov­ thus increasing the role of market signals in emment activity and the desirability of specific planting decisions. The decision to freeze govemment programs. It is a major problem program yields in 1985 similarly had both indeed when deficit concerns add to, rather budget savings and sound economic and than reduce, the detrimental impact of environmental effects. govemment programs on the £lmctioning of Deficit concerns do not necessarily dic- our economy. L! ffil1 Ag policy-looking ahead continued IIII Election signals for future agricultural and food policy, continued from page 12 to higher education at Georgetown U niver­ expansion of agriculrural research and de­ will enable rural Americans to help them­ sity, Yale University, and as a Rhodes Scholar velopment." selves, create jobs, and rebuild theircommu- .. ') at Oxford University in England. "Our current farm programs, [Food, nmes. Clinton's central campaign theme was Agriculrure, Conservation, and Trade Act " .. .support policies which protect the the "state of the national economy." Al­ of 1990], properly managed, can achieve environment while recognizing the funda­ though agticulture was not a prominent reasonable prices for producers and guaran­ mental importance of private property part of his theme, Clinton hinted at his tee a safe and stable food and fiber supply for rights." vision for agriculrure and for agriculrural consumers." "Pass a new Clean Water Act with stan­ and food policy in these statements: In the policy area of the rural commu­ dards for non-point-source pollution and " ... adequate supply of quality food and nity, family farm, environment, trade, and incentives for our firms, farmers, and fami­ lies to develop ways to reduce and prevent polluted run-off at its source .. .." Although agriculture was not a prominent part of "Multilateral trade agreements can ad­ vance our economic interests by expanding his theme, Clinton hinted at his vision for agricul­ the global economy... negotiations, our gov­ ture and for agricultural and food policy_ ernment must assure that our legitimate concerns about environmental, health and safety, and labor standards are included." fiber is an important strategic goal of the research, Clinton wrote: "Increase funding for the Food for Peace United States." " ... help diversifY rural economies to en­ Program:" "American farmers are the most com­ able people to continue to live and work in " ... should not use food as a weapon, but petitive and efficient in the world." rural America." search for alternative ways to carry out for­ " .. provide American leadership in world " .. .it's time to invest in the rural economy eign policy objectives." agriculrure through modernization and de­ ...by investing in the infrastructure, tele­ "Federal funds need to be utilized in ways velopment of current farm programs and communicarions, education, and health that which improve cooperation among farmers 34. CHOICES Firsr Quarrer 1993 . t-jI1 Ag policy-looking ahead continued 1111 Election signals for future agricultural and food policy, continued from previous page and between states in the same region." gress. The new House includes 259 Demo­ Congress and the agricultural committees Climon also made observations about crats, 175 Republicans, and one Indepen­ seem to reflect the agricultural and food the Secretary ofAgriculture and reorganiza­ dent, reflecting a loss of nine Democrats. policy leanings ofthe new president and his tion of the USDA: Issues mostly unrelated to agricultural or party. " ... appointaSecretaryofAgriculturewho food policy brought high turnover in the is respected by America's farmers ... turning House. The number ofwomen, Black, and From the initial it imo a department for agriculture and Native American members increased. Sub­ American farmers .... " stantial change occurred in the membership appointments A tone, an attitude, an overriding phi­ of House and Senate Agriculture Commit­ Sixteen top administrators of USDA must losophy of governmem that may transcend tees as a result of reassignments and incum­ have Senate approval. Twelve major agency any insight gained from specific policy pro­ bent defeats attributed to redistricting. heads and well