Region Focus Summer 04.ps - 7/12/2004 3:52 PM BOOKREVIEW Baseball Science MONEYBALL: THE ART OF alent. For some people it’s a little to recommend him other than raw WINNING AN UNFAIR GAME blessing. For others, such as Billy talent and gaudy high-school statistics. BY MICHAEL LEWIS TBeane, it can seem like a curse. He had never proven himself against NEW YORK: W.W. NORTON, There are few things as sad as top-notch competition before the Mets 2003, 288 PAGES promise gone unfulfilled, and by all spent a first-round pick on him. measures Beane was one of the most Unlike another talented young promising baseball talents of his gen- slugger from the San Diego area, Mark REVIEWED BY eration. Standing 6 feet 4 inches, with McGwire, Beane hadn’t played college AARON STEELMAN blazing speed and a quick bat, Beane baseball. McGwire, in contrast, already was labeled a “can’t-miss” prospect. The had three years at the University of South- New York Mets selected the 18-year-old ern California and a trip to the 1984 in the first round Olympic Games of the 1980 ama- under his belt teur draft, along when he was with another high Bill James’ approach, drafted. In other school phenom, words, McGwire Darryl Strawber- called “Sabermetrics,” had more than ry. The two were just talent, he had supposed to be employs statistical a track record. the pillars around One could use a which a cham- and mathematical wide range of pionship team objective meas- would be built. techniques to analyze ures to evaluate Strawberry lived McGwire, while up to this role — baseball records. with Beane one at least for a had to rely on while. He was a subjective meas- star on the 1986 team that won the ures. McGwire, of course, would go on World Series, and had several more to become one of the most prolific good seasons for the Mets before per- home-run hitters in baseball history, sonal problems and injuries cut short while Beane knocked only three his career. pitches out of the park during his Billy Beane’s career, on the other entire career. hand, never really got off the ground. To longtime baseball scouts, though, He played six mediocre seasons in the subjective measures were paramount. Editor’s Note: Beginning with this Major Leagues, mostly as a backup, They believed they could spot a future issue, we introduce a book review compiling a career batting average of star just by looking at him. As long as department to Region Focus. First just .219. a player was fast, strong, and had a up: Michael Lewis’ Moneyball, The can’t-miss prospect proved to be good arm, he could be turned into a which discusses the economics a bust. Why? Nobody really knew at the big-leaguer. Billy Beane fit this profile of Major League baseball, an time, including Billy Beane. Maybe he perfectly. He benefited from the way especially appropriate topic for lacked dedication. Maybe he lacked con- scouts judged players. But after his the summer issue. fidence. Or maybe he just wasn’t as good playing days were over, Beane would as people thought. After all, Beane had devote his efforts to proving these 32 Region Focus • Summer 2004 Region Focus Summer 04.ps - 7/12/2004 3:52 PM “baseball minds” wrong. He would for the Cy Young Award, given annu- number of runs scored by a team dif- strive to make baseball a science — one ally to the league’s top pitcher. fered dramatically from his predicted where quantifiable, testable measures The A’s also have been able to find number, his model was clearly wrong. prevailed over subjective evaluations. bargains in the free-agent market, “As it turns out, James was onto some- Moneyball is the story of Beane’s including many players that teams were thing,” writes Lewis. “His model came efforts to implement his theories as anxious to discard. These players did far closer, year in and year out, to general manager of the Oakland Ath- not perform well on certain measures describing the run totals of every big letics, more commonly known as the A’s. usually given great weight by baseball league baseball team than anything the Written by Michael Lewis, the book insiders, such as batting average and teams themselves had come up with.” follows the team during the 2002 stolen bases. But to the A’s, these were According to the Runs Created season, a year in which Oakland won not particularly important statistics. formula, the two conventional meas- the American League West champi- Beane and DePodesta were follow- ures that contributed most to a team’s onship despite having one of the lowest ers of baseball writer Bill James, who offensive success were on-base per- payrolls in all of baseball. Beane and published his own Baseball Abstract centage and slugging percentage. If a his staff, especially his assistant Paul guy could get on base (it didn’t DePodesta, were able to build a matter how — getting a hit or club that could compete with much taking a walk both counted) or hit richer opponents, even the hated for power, he could help his team New York Yankees, a team that score runs. So James combined the many fans believed were destroying two statistics to create a new one: the game by buying up the game’s On Base Plus Slugging, known best players. How did Beane and simply as OPS. Beane and his staff do it? Through careful DePodesta searched for players scouting of amateur players and with high OPS scores, and found shrewd free-agent acquisitions. one in Scott Hatteberg. Consider the way they Hatteberg, in the view of most approached the draft. As Beane Major League executives, was just an could personally attest, many scouts average player. In a single season, favored talented high-school he had never hit above .277 or driven players — young studs, as it were in more than 43 runs for his former — over older college players. And team, the Boston Red Sox. Still, while some of these high-school Beane and DePodesta noticed that players would have fantastic major he consistently had an OPS score league careers — for instance, high around .800, thanks in large measure schooler Alex Rodriguez was to a good eye at the plate. Hatteberg selected first overall in the 1993 was no star. But he was a solid player draft and is now arguably the who fit into the Oakland system. game’s best player — many more And that was exactly what Oakland would simply fade from the spot- was developing — a system. light. College players were much Before the 2002 season, the A’s safer, if less spectacular, bets. Beane and from 1977 to 1988. James’ data-heavy had lost their best player, Jason Giambi, his staff toured the country in search books were the products of intense to the New York Yankees, who signed of college players who many teams research and some controversy. His him as a free agent. Beane and simply ignored. approach, called “Sabermetrics,” DePodesta knew that they could not For instance, in 1997 the A’s drafted employed statistical and mathematical replace Jason Giambi. There were few right-handed pitcher Tim Hudson. techniques to analyze baseball records. players in the league as good — and Although Hudson was the Southeastern Early on, James created his own those who were carried too high a price Conference player of the year his senior formula called “Runs Created.” The tag. But they could try to replace Jason season, posting a 15-2 record with the idea was to develop a testable hypoth- Giambi’s numbers by acquiring over- Auburn Tigers, few teams were inter- esis about what accounted for a team’s looked journeymen who would play ested in him. The A’s were able to snap offensive output. The formula went as their roles as Beane and DePodesta saw him up in the sixth round. Hudson follows: Runs Created = (Hits + Walks) them. Hatteberg was the prototypical became a regular member of Oakland’s x Total Bases/(At Bats + Walks). cog in the Oakland machine. The plan starting rotation in 1999, and since then James tested his formula using worked perfectly: Even without their has three times finished in the top 10 Major League data. If the actual star, the A’s still won 103 games in 2002 Summer 2004 • Region Focus 33 Region Focus Summer 04.ps - 7/12/2004 3:52 PM and drew more than 2 million fans. consultant. J. P. Ricciardi, who worked — such as free-throw and field-goal It’s hard to argue with Beane’s ap- closely with Beane in Oakland, was shooting percentages — that could be proach. The A’s have performed impres- hired by the Toronto Blue Jays in used to construct formulas similar to the sively under his guidance. Since 2000, November 2001 to run that team’s front ones employed by Beane and his staff. they have compiled a win-loss record of office. The Toronto management was It’s not clear why this hasn’t been done. 392-255, and have gone to the playoffs impressed by what the cash-strapped A’s Whatever shortcomings there may every year. But some questions remain. were able to accomplish and hoped that be with Beane’s approach to running a First, why do the A’s seem unable to Ricciardi could bring similar success Major League baseball team — and the win the big game? The A’s make it to north of the border.