Volume 10 ï Number 2 ï July 2021 Volume 10 ï Number 2 ï July 2021 Volume 10 ï Number 2 July 2021 www.allazimuth.com All Azimuth All Azimuth Aims and Scope All Azimuth, journal of the Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research, is an English-language, ALL-AZIMUTH: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace international peer-reviewed journal, published biannually. It aims: Cilt/Volume: 10 • Sayı/Number: 2 • July 2021 • to provide a forum for academic studies on foreign policy analysis, peace and development research, Type of Publication/ Yayın Türü: International Periodical / Yaygın Süreli Yayın • to publish pieces bridging the theory-practice gap; dealing with under-represented conceptual Publishing Period & Language / Yayın Periyodu & Dili: Biannual-English/6 aylık- İngilizce approaches in the field; and making scholarly engagements in the dialogue between the “center” and the “periphery“, • to encourage publications with homegrown theoretical and philosophical approaches. • to transcend conventional theoretical, methodological, geographical, academic and cultural boundaries, • to highlight works of senior and promising young scholars, • to uphold international standards and principles of academic publishing. Owner/Sahibi International Advisory Board/Uluslararası Danışma Kurulu Ersel Aydınlı, Bilkent University Executive Editor/Sorumlu Yazı İşleri Müdürü Meliha Altunışık, Middle East Technical University Ersel Aydınlı, Bilkent University Mohammed Ayoob, Michigan State University Chief Editors/Genel Yayın Yönetmenleri Hüseyin Bağcı, Middle East Technical University Ali L. Karaosmanoğlu, Nimet Beriker, Columbia University Center for Foreign Policy & Peace Research (CFPPR) Gonca Biltekin, ECO Educational Institute Ersel Aydınlı, Bilkent University Esra Çuhadar, Bilkent University Managing Editor/ Yönetici Editör Michael W. Doyle, Columbia University Onur Erpul, CFPPR Daniel Druckman, George Mason University Editors/ Editörler Cooper Drury, University of Missouri-Columbia Andrey Makarychev, University of Tartu Atila Eralp, İstanbul Policy Center Homeira Moshirzadeh, University of Tehran Serdar Ş. Güner, Bilkent University Erik Ringmar, İbn Haldun University Metin Heper, Bilkent University Deepshikha Shahi, University of Delhi Patrick James, University of Southern California Chih-yu Shih, National Taiwan University Knud Erik Jorgensen, Aarhus University Helen Turton, The University of Sheffield Pınar İpek, TOBB ETU University Language Editor/Dil Editörü Emilian Kavalski, University of Nottingham Ningbo, China Julie Mathews Fuat Keyman, Sabancı University Publisher/Yayıncı Müge Kınacıoğlu, Hacettepe University Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research İhsan Doğramacı Peace Foundation/ Ludger Kühnhardt, Bonn University Dış Politika ve Barış Araştırmaları Merkezi, Heath W. Lowry, Princeton University İhsan Doğramacı Barış Vakfı Nicholas Onuf, Florida International University Ankara, Turkey Ziya Öniş, Koç University ISSN (print): 2146-7757 Nihat Ali Özcan, TOBB ETU University ISSN (online): 2757-9026 Özgür Özdamar, Bilkent University All Rights Reserved Haluk Özdemir, Kırıkkale University Printing House/Basımcı T.V. Paul, McGill University Elma Teknik Basım Matbaacılık Kosuke Shimizu, Ryukoku University İvedik OSB Matbaacılar Sitesi İlter Turan, İstanbul Bilgi University 1516/1 Sk. No: 35 Yenimahalle / ANKARA Ali Resul Usul, İstanbul Medipol University Tel: (90-312) 229 92 65 Peter Volten, Center for European Security Studies Printing Date/Basım Tarihi Nuri Yurdusev, Middle East Technical University 16.07.2021 Enders Wimbush, StrateVarious LLC, Washington, Virginia This journal is indexed and abstracted by: Editorial Office/Yayın İdare Adresi: Manuscript Submission: CIAO, EBSCO, Emerging Sources Citation Index, Bilkent Üniversitesi G Binası no: 157, 06800, Bilkent, Ankara/Turkey Manuscripts submitted for consideration must follow the style on the journal’s web page (http://ww- European Sources Online, Gale, JournalSeek, Left Tel: (90-312) 290 2985 w.allazimuth.com/authors- guideline/). The manuscripts should not be submitted simultaneously to Index, Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies, Fax: (90-312) 290 3078 any other publication, nor may they have been previously published elsewhere in English. However, One Belt One Road, Political Science Complete, E-mail: [email protected] • Web: www.allazimuth.com articles that are published previously in another language but updated or improved can be submitted. ProQuest, Scopus, ULAKBİM, Ulrich’s, Worldwide Political Science Abstracts This journal is owned by Ersel Aydınlı, on behalf of the Ihsan For such articles, the author(s) will be responsible in seeking the required permission for copyright. Dogramaci Peace Foundation./İhsan Doğramacı Barış Vakfı adına All manuscripts are subject to review by anonymous referees. Manuscripts should be submitted Ersel Aydınlı yayın sahibidir. through the submission form at: http://www.allazimuth.com/authors-guideline/ TABLE OF CONTENTS Vol. 10 No. 2 July 2021 In This Issue 123 ARTICLES At the Brink of Nuclear War: Feasibility of Retaliation and the U.S. Policy Decisions During the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis 125 Yang Gyu Kim and Félix E. Martín Exogenous Dynamics and Leadership Traits: A Study of Change in the Personality Traits of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan 149 Ali Balcı and İbrahim Efe Reputation Building as a Strategy for Terror Group Survival 165 Efe Tokdemir Tianxia (All-Under-Heaven): An Alternative System or a Rose by another Name? 183 Mehmet Şahin A Government Devoid of Strong Leadership: A Neoclassical Realist Explanation of Turkey’s Iraq War Decision in 2003 197 Samet Yılmaz Hedging as a Survival Strategy for Small States: The Case of Kuwait 213 İsmail Numan Telci and Mehmet Rakipoğlu The Interactions of International Relations: Racism, Colonialism, Producer-Centred Research 231 Deep K. Datta-Ray Abstracts in Turkish 255 V10, N2, July 2021 In This Issue In this issue of All Azimuth, we present to our readers a diverse selection of studies spanning mainstream disciplinary topics, such as the impact of China's rise, as well as powerful critiques of the discipline. We also want to highlight the methodological diversity of the present issue, showcasing rigorous quantitative research designs, well-crafted process-tracing of policy decisions, Leader Trait Analysis, and not to mention a commanding use of autobiographical research to critique the latent colonialism in the IR discipline. We are particularly interested in topics like decision-making and leadership on one hand, and contemporary debates in security studies on the other. We open with “At the Brink of Nuclear War: Feasibility of Retaliation and the U.S. Policy Decisions During the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis” by Yang Gyu Kim and Félix E. Martín, who enter into a conversation with the deterrence literature to investigate American decision- makers' ultimate policy decision of pursuing a hedging strategy during the Cuban Missile Crisis. The deterrence literature often focuses on the policies of the challenger rather than the choices of the defender in cases of deterrence failure. Nuclear revolutionists, who envisage a positive role for nuclear weapons in ensuring peace, and pessimists, those who ascribe limited utility to nuclear deterrence, offer rival explanations for the American decision, but neither satisfactorily explains the variations in the decisions of policymakers during crises. To amend this deficiency, the article employs process-tracing to track the unfolding crisis and the policy recommendations of key American decisionmakers, concluding that Soviet nuclear weapons did not fully affect American decision making until developments on the ground made such weapons feasible tools of punishment. Our second article, “Exogenous Dynamics and Leadership Traits: A Study of Change in the Personality Traits of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan” by Ali Balcı and İbrahim Efe, inquires into personality trait changes in leaders. Specifically, they inquire into the role of exogenous shocks and incumbency on leadership traits. This topic is explored by way of studying Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s personality traits along seven dimensions of leadership, including distrust of others, task focus, belief in the ability to control events, in-group bias, self-confidence, conceptual complexity, and need for power, as well as how these traits have evolved not only during Erdoğan’s tenure, but also as a result of traumatic events. The overall findings have important implications for the study of leadership as it is suggested that leaders who remain in power for a long time do not exhibit stable personality characteristics, and so a fixed-trait assumption should not be taken for granted. The third article, Efe Tokdemir's “Reputation Building as a Strategy for Terror Group Survival,” investigates the staying power of terrorist organizations. Using data from the Reputation of Terror Groups Dataset and Global Terrorism Database, Tokdemir argues that terrorist organizations that rely on either positive (hearts and minds) or negative (coercive) reputational strategies are more capable of securing resources needed to sustain their organizations as opposed to organizations with more neutral reputations. However, organizations that pursue positive reputation-building strategies towards their constituencies also tend to attract more willing and loyal recruits, which positively affects their organization's survival. These findings suggest that effective counterterrorism strategies against entrenched terrorist groups cannot succeed