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Master’s Research Proposal For Hybrid-Renewable Energy: A methodology for identifying communities that can benefit from off-grid systems Submitted to The Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment The Department of Mechanical Engineering Science University of Johannesburg Master of Engineering Degree HLOLOGELO MAESELA KEKANA 201048853 Supervisor: Prof. Esther T. Akinlabi Co-supervisor: Mr Gregory Landwehr May 2020 1 Plagiarism Declaration I, Hlologelo Maesela Kekana, hereby declare that this report is entirely my own work; and it has not been used anywhere else for acquiring academic credit. I understand what plagiarism implies; and I hereby declare that this report is my own ideas, words, phrases, figures, results and organisation – except where reference is explicitly made to another person’s work. I understand that any wrong academic behaviour, which includes plagiarism, results in prosecutable penalties by the University of Johannesburg; and consequently, it is punishable by disciplinary action. Thus, as a student of the University of Johannesburg, I adhere to the rules and regulations of this institution. Signature............................................................ Student number .......201048853.......................................... Date ................................................................... i Abstract In a world of increasing demand for electrical energy, renewable energy is Africa’s calling- card to come to the forefront of renewable energy generation. Solar energy can be harnessed in different ways; and the technology to increase the energy output efficiency continues to develop daily, growing exponentially towards achieving efficiency levels, which can substantiate its greater use in everyday lives. This study has attempted to model a hybrid-energy power plant that utilises solar PV and wind energy to power the electricity demand of a community in South Africa. The hybrid-energy system operates with the support of a Battery Energy Storage (BES) system, together with a diesel generator, in order to access an energy supply whenever solar or wind energy are not harnessed. This research work focuses on optimizing the methodology of determining the benefit of an off-grid system. South Africa is one of the most gifted nations in terms of natural resources, providing solar energy and wind energy in abundance from the coastlines to the northern desert areas; renewable energy has the potential of becoming a reliable and sustainable resource with the capacity to power up the remote and rural parts of South Africa, which are currently too costly to connect to the grid and to electrify. This study provides an in-depth look into the methodology of determining a community that can benefit from an off-grid hybrid-energy system. The Ntabankulu local municipality was the opted choice for its remote and rural communities, together with high levels of lack of access to electricity. From the municipality, the Buwani, Mdin and Xopo communities were chosen based on their size and topography. The Mdini community in the Ntabankulu local municipality of the Eastern Cape Province has been shown to be the most suitable community on the basis of the determined selected criteria. This was also based on the DREI costing tool’s levelized cost of energy results. The Derisking Renewable Energy ii Investment (DREI) costing tool, factored in the size of the community, the daily energy consumption and the available wind and solar resources in the area. The costing tool is detailed; and it provides the user with project investment options, interest rates and subsidised financing. Keywords: Battery Energy Storage System (BESS), De-risking Renewable Energy Investment (DREI) costing tool, Eastern Cape, Levellised Cost of Energy (LCOE), Ntabankulu local municipality, Off-grid,. iii Table of Contents Plagiarism Declaration ........................................................................................................ i Abstract ................................................................................................................................ii List of Figures ................................................................................................................... viii List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... xii ACRONYMS .......................................................................................................................... i Nomenclature .......................................................................................................................ii CHAPTER ONE .................................................................................................................... 1 1.0 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background ............................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Motivation .................................................................................................................. 2 1.3 Problem statement .................................................................................................... 2 1.4 Aim of the Research .......................................................................................... 3 1.5 Research Objectives ......................................................................................... 3 1.6 Hypothesis Statements ..................................................................................... 4 1.7 Significance of research ........................................................................................... 6 1. 8 Project plan ............................................................................................................... 6 1. 9 Summary ................................................................................................................... 8 CHAPTER TWO ................................................................................................................... 9 2 Literature Survey ......................................................................................................... 9 2.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 9 2.2 Renewable energy ............................................................................................. 9 2.2.1 Types of renewable energy .............................................................................. 9 2.2.2 Global standings of renewable energy ........................................................... 10 2.3 An Overview of Electricity in South Africa .................................................... 14 2.3.1 South Africa’s GDP on Energy ............................................................................ 23 2.3.2 Gini Coefficient .................................................................................................... 25 2.3.3 Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity (IRP) ..................................................... 26 2.4 Access to electricity and State of renewable energy in South Africa .................. 29 2.5 Critical Review of Off-grid systems ........................................................................ 35 2.5.1 Case Study: Off-grid Micro-grid for Universal Electricity Access in the Eastern Cape, South Africa ....................................................................................................... 35 2.5.2 Case Study: Upper Blinkwater off-grid system in Eastern Cape, South Africa ..... 36 iv 2.5.3 Case Study: Potential of Hybrids for rural off-grids in the Eastern Cape, South Africa ........................................................................................................................... 36 2.5.4 Case Study: Thabazimbi Chrome Mine in Limpopo, South Africa ........................ 38 2.5.5 Hybrid energy projects in Africa ........................................................................... 39 2.5.6 Mini-grid projects in Africa ................................................................................... 40 2.5.7 Case study: Grid parity analysis of a PV- BESS hybrid ....................................... 46 2.5.8 Global view on Wind energy ................................................................................ 46 2.5.9 Case Study: World’s biggest lithium-ion battery in South Australia. ..................... 47 2.6 South Africa’s solar profile ............................................................................. 48 2.6.1 Solar PV energy transfer methods ................................................................