Synthesis Report on South Asian Region Disaster Risks – Final Report South Asia Disaster Risk Management Programme: Synthesis Report on SAR Countries Disaster Risks Synthesis Report on South Asian Region Disaster Risks – Final Report Table of Content PREFACE................................................................................................................................................IV ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.........................................................................................................................V LIST OF FIGURES..................................................................................................................................VI ABBREVIATION USED............................................................................................................................X EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..........................................................................................................................1 1.1 BACKGROUND ....................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 KEY FINDINGS ....................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.3 WAY FORWARD ..................................................................................................................................................... 3 1.3.1 Additional analyses ................................................................................................................................... 3 1.3.2 Response to disaster ................................................................................................................................. 4 1.3.3 Centralized database ................................................................................................................................ 4 1.3.4 Ensuring participation and Institutional strengthening ............................................................................ 4 1.3.5 Improvement in disaster risk assessment ................................................................................................. 4 1.3.6 Coordinated approach .............................................................................................................................. 4 1.3.7 Poverty alleviation and awareness generation ......................................................................................... 5 1.4 ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT ................................................................................................................................... 5 METHODOLOGY......................................................................................................................................6 1.5 DATA REVIEW ....................................................................................................................................................... 6 1.5.1 Data Sources ............................................................................................................................................. 6 1.5.2 Data Issues ................................................................................................................................................ 7 1.5.3 Data Selection and Cleaning ..................................................................................................................... 8 1.6 HAZARD RISK AND VULNERABILITY ESTIMATES ................................................................................................................... 9 1.6.1 Hazard Risk Analysis .................................................................................................................................. 9 1.6.2 Vulnerability Analysis ................................................................................................................................ 9 1.7 RISK ASSESSMENT ................................................................................................................................................. 10 1.8 PRESENTATION OF RESULTS ..................................................................................................................................... 11 SAR HAZARD RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT.................................................................12 1.9 OVERVIEW ......................................................................................................................................................... 12 1.10 REGIONAL SETTING ............................................................................................................................................. 13 1.11 PHYSICAL SETTING ............................................................................................................................................. 14 1.12 SOCIO-ECONOMIC SETTING .................................................................................................................................... 14 1.13 DISASTER OVERVIEW ........................................................................................................................................... 15 1.14 DISASTER RISK PROFILE ........................................................................................................................................ 16 1.15 MAJOR NATURAL HAZARD RISK OVERVIEW AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT .............................................................................. 19 1.15.1 Earthquake ............................................................................................................................................ 20 1.15.2 Flood ...................................................................................................................................................... 24 1.15.3 Landslide ............................................................................................................................................... 29 1.15.4 Cyclone ................................................................................................................................................. 32 1.15.5 Volcano ................................................................................................................................................. 35 1.16 POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE .................................................................................................................... 35 1.16.1 Climate Change Trends from Climate Models ...................................................................................... 36 1.16.2 Asian-Pacific Network climate change estimates ................................................................................. 39 1.17 SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS .......................................................................................................... 44 1.17.1 Socio-Economic Impact of Climate Change .......................................................................................... 45 COUNTRY RISK PROFILE.....................................................................................................................48 1.18 AFGHANISTAN .................................................................................................................................................. 49 1.18.1 Overview .............................................................................................................................................. 49 1.18.2 Regional Setting .................................................................................................................................... 50 1.18.3 Hazard Profile ........................................................................................................................................ 50 Page i Synthesis Report on South Asian Region Disaster Risks – Final Report 1.18.4 Risk Profile ............................................................................................................................................ 50 1.19 BANGLADESH .................................................................................................................................................... 53 1.19.1 Overview .............................................................................................................................................. 53 1.19.2 Regional Setting .................................................................................................................................... 54 1.19.3 Hazard Profile ........................................................................................................................................ 54 1.19.4 Risk Profile ............................................................................................................................................ 55 1.20 BHUTAN .......................................................................................................................................................... 58 1.20.1 Overview .............................................................................................................................................. 58 1.20.2 Regional Setting .................................................................................................................................... 59 1.20.3 Hazard Profile .......................................................................................................................................