Property Review Dubai Real Estate Report Q4 2019 DUBAI | HISTORIC REVIEW RECESSION RECOVERY AND GROWTH STABILISATION DOWNTURN 2009-2011 2012-2013 2014-2015 2016-2019 • The Dubai Real Estate market has gone through • The market began to show signs • The market peaked in Q2 2014 • 2016 and 2017 recorded a significant amount of new project launches significant fluctuations over the years. Following of recovery in 2012 when the and corrected thereafter due to and deliveries resulting in steady declines in Sales prices and Rental the introduction of a decree allowing International Euro Crisis and Arab Spring a combination of factors such rates. Whilst new project announcements eased off in 2018 and 2019, Freehold Ownership in 2002, the market recorded conflict led to Dubai being an as the reduction in LTVs, low oil additional supply continued to have a downward effect on rates. rapid growth up until Q1 2009. attractive alternative and ’safe’ prices and a strong US Dollar. haven to invest and live in. • The number and range of incentives increased as Landlords tried to • This period was marked by large scale developments • Rental rates remained broadly retain Tenants and increase take-up, whilst Developers tried to motivate and project launches. The Real Estate market was • In November 2013, Dubai was stable as the handover of Buyers. fuelled by both strong demand from a rapidly awarded to host Expo 2020, new supply was slower than expanding economy and workforce (leading to which led to growth in market anticipated. • A market driven by Tenants and Investors and an increased number double digit Rental growth and Investor returns) and, confidence, a rise in new project of people looking for value-for-money options resulted in affordable more problematically, Investor speculation. launches and increased Sales • Due to the substantial number developments outperforming luxury accommodation in terms of prices and Rental rates. of launches witnessed in the transaction activity. • With the onset of the global financial crisis, loss previous years, concerns of of confidence, erosion of capital and drying-up of • Whilst increased job security an oversupply and lack of • Developers increasingly offered smaller, off-plan units at lower price liquidity, speculators were driven from the market. and market confidence created demand particularly for high points with flexible post-completion payment plans, which resulted in an This resulted in significant value contractions demand for Tenants to upgrade, end properties motivated increase in first-time Buyers and End-users as home ownership became and ultimately the collapse of fundamentals rapid Rental growth also Developers to focus on the mid more accessible to people who were previously unable to jump on the underpinning the Real Estate market. restricted Residents to move and affordable housing sector, property ladder due to high down payments. within Dubai and thus resulted in and to offer incentives such as • Initially, this resulted in a drop in demand for completed properties, but • Asteco also recorded noticeable Tenant migration an upsurge in relocations to the extended payment plans during from neighbouring Emirates due to decreased Rental the slowdown in new project launches and the increased affordability led Northern Emirates in search of the post-completion stage. to a rise in transaction volumes in the secondary market . rates in Dubai. more affordable housing. • Lower deposits also made • Sales activity remained subdued although • In anticipation of the growing off-plan Sales a more attractive transaction levels picked up slightly by the end of Investor demand, the Dubai option compared to the 2011. Government doubled the minimum 25% down payment • Many projects were delayed, put on hold or land registration fee to 4%, required for a mortgaged cancelled. and introduced new loan-to- property. value rules to limit property 220 speculation. 200 180 160 140 120 100 Index Base 100 = March 2010 80 60 40 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun SepDec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Apartment Sales Villa Sales Office Sales Apartment Rentals Villa Rentals Office Rentals The line graph above demonstrates the average percentage sales and rental trend on a quarterly basis. 2 Dubai Real Estate Report - Q4 2019 DUBAI SUPPLY COMPLETED IN COMPLETED IN EXPECTED IN Q1 - Q3 2019 Q4 2019 2020 15,600 8,000 39,000 APARTMENTS NO. OF UNITS 4,700 2,700 10,600 VILLAS NO. OF UNITS 1.85 1.25 2.5 OFFICES MILLION SQ.FT. 3 Dubai Real Estate Report - Q4 2019 DUBAI HIGHLIGHTS AND OUTLOOK 2019 HIGHLIGHTS 2020 OUTLOOK • A total of 31,000 Residential units were handed over in 2019, comprising • New supply for 2020 is estimated at close to 50,000 units and 2.5 million sq.ft. of SUPPLY* approximately 23,600 Apartments and 7,400 Villas, with communities such as Damac Office space, although, similar to previous years, some of this is expected to spill over Hills, Dubai Hills Estates and Akoya Oxygen accounting for the bulk of completions. into 2021. • The Commercial sector recorded the delivery of circa 3.1 million sq.ft. of new Office • We will continue to see project launches from Master Developers with space. construction-linked and post-completion payment plans. • Whilst construction activity for committed projects continued, the pace of new • Calls from industry leaders/experts for a short term curb on new projects in order to launches, particularly from secondary Developers, eased over 2019 in response to restore the supply-demand balance are expected to increase. lower demand and growing supply. • Although Dubai’s Real Estate market continued to mature throughout 2019 in line • With more supply expected for handover in 2020, retention will become increasingly RENTAL RATES with increased transparency and improved regulatory conditions, Rental reductions important and can be achieved through competitive rates/incentives and remained commonplace in the majority of developments. proactive/professional Property Management. • However, these lower Rental rates also enabled more Tenants to upgrade in terms of • Nonetheless, further pressure on Rental rates across all asset classes is expected for size, quality and/or location. the year as economic uncertainties limit newcomers to the market. • Apartments, Villas and Offices recorded average declines of 11%, 10% and 12%, respectively. • Apartment, Villa and Office Sales prices continued their downward trajectory during • Whilst Rental rates are expected to contract further, Sale price declines are likely to SALES PRICES 2019, declining by an average of 13% to 15%. ease in 2020, particularly for newly launched projects, as development costs are • Increased affordability opened the market to a wider Investor pool and facilitated a approaching the lowest practical level. rise in End-users and first time Buyers. • Secondary property prices are, however, expected to record additional drops. • Asteco noted a marked rise in enquiries with focus on affordable properties. • Developers, banks and other financial institutions will need to lower entry points to • In fact, according to Dubai Land’s Department (DLD) data, transaction volumes boost Sales. recorded an 11-year high in 2019. * It is important to note that whilst a number of projects may have received completion certificates, Asteco does not consider a project delivered until the handover process has been initiated, or the units are available for lease in the open market. SALES PRICES RENTAL RATES PROJECT LAUNCHES INCENTIVES SUPPLY DEMAND DEMAND TRENDS - OFF PLAN - COMPLETED 2019 2020 4 Dubai Real Estate Report - Q4 2019 DUBAI APARTMENT RENTAL RATES (All figures in AED 000’s p.a.) TYPE 1 BEDROOM 2 BEDROOMS 3 BEDROOMS 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2008 2019 HIGH TO LUXURY END DIFC - - 73 80 103 113 105 100 90 - 115 130 158 173 160 145 120 170 198 235 230 190 175 DOWNTOWN DUBAI 133 85 70 68 98 118 95 83 185 125 275 165 150 180 228 245 240 225 PALM JUMEIRAH 200 113 90 95 135 110 140 208 155 138 128 300 200 223 243 255 SHEIKH ZAYED ROAD 160 83 80 203 148 290 195 MID TO HIGH END BUSINESS BAY 55 45 60 93 85 70 65 178 DUBAI MARINA 130 78 63 75 68 143 210 205 GREENS 120 65 58 75 88 78 JUMEIRAH BEACH RESIDENCE 115 108 168 163 193 JUMEIRAH LAKES TOWERS 110 50 58 133 153 AFFORDABLE DEIRA 88 48 40 37 35 60 50 48 55 53 63 DISCOVERY GARDENS 100 38 72 DUBAI SPORTS CITY 59 74 45 INTERNATIONAL CITY 70 44 27 23 24 43 46 40 35 30 39 38 JUMEIRAH VILLAGE 73 DUBAI AVERAGE 118 68 57 53 61 85 91 90 74 65 58 157 96 82 75 88 118 127 102 83 216 131 114 107 128 159 170 172 162 142 ANNUAL % CHANGE - -42% -16% -7% 15% 39% 7% -1% -6% -13% -12% -10% - -39% -14% -8% 16% 35% 8% 0% -7% -11% -9% 19% 24% 2% % CHANGE SINCE PEAK (2008) -51% -47% % CHANGE SINCE MARKET LOW (2011) 9% 11% 7% % CHANGE SINCE 2ND PEAK (2014) -36% -35% -33% 5 Dubai Real Estate Report - Q4 2019 DUBAI APARTMENT SALES PRICES AED per sq.ft. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2,050 1,800 2,000 1,000 1,100 1,100 750 1,000 925 700 925 925 900 1,050 1,000 1,225 1,900 1,525 1,300 1,750 1,625 1,210 1,600 1,370 1,300 1,450 1,300 BUSINESS BAY 1,175 DUBAI MARINA 1,250 1,200 975 1,125 1,025 900 1,000 925 JUMEIRAH BEACH RESIDENCE 2,700 1,600 1,400 1,600 700 850 1,500 550 700 1,300 550 650