COUNTRY REPORT Kenya 2nd quarter 1997 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent Street, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The EIU delivers its information in four ways: through subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through specific research reports, whether for general release or for particular clients; through electronic publishing; and by organising conferences and roundtables. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. 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ISSN 0269-4239 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Redhouse Press Ltd, Unit 151, Dartford Trade Park, Dartford, Kent DA1 1QB, UK Kenya 1 Contents 3 Summary 4 Political structure 5 Economic structure 6 Outlook for 1997-98 8 Review 8 The political scene 12 The economy 15 Finance 17 Agriculture and fisheries 19 Mining and telecommunications 19 Transport and tourism 21 Regional cooperation, foreign trade and payments 22 Quarterly indicators and trade data List of tables 7 Forecast summary (domestic) 8 Forecast summary (external) 15 Public finances 16 Pre-tax performance of leading parastatals 21 Current account, 1996 22 Quarterly indicators of economic activity 22 Trade with main partners 23 Direction of trade List of figures 8 Gross domestic product 8 Kenya shilling real exchange rate 13 Interest rates and inflation EIU Country Report 2nd quarter 1997 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1997 Kenya 3 May 1, 1997 Summary 2nd quarter 1997 Outlook for 1997-98: The re-election of Mr Moi and his ruling KANU party in late 1997 is not seriously in doubt. The point of interest is the regrouping within the ruling party for the post-Moi era. Mr Biwott and KANU “B” appear to be in the ascendancy, although their plans for a new ethnic alliance of the Kalenjin and the Kikuyu are highly ambitious. Pre-election caution on the part of investors coupled with the effects of the drought are set to reduce GDP growth to 3.4% this year, with a return of confidence among consumers and investors pushing growth back up to 4.4% in 1998. A stronger trading perform- ance will keep the current-account deficit manageable in both years. The political scene: Divisions within the Kalenjin family of tribes have resurfaced. The KANU “B” faction is hoping to redraw the ethnic alliances underpinning the ruling party. The new police chief is under pressure follow- ing the death of a student activist. The electorate appears unenthusiastic about the forthcoming polls. The armed forces command has been restructured. The economy and finance: The IMF has relaxed its stance on Kenya. Infla- tion has risen due to food shortages. The government has issued a policy paper aiming for industrialisation by 2000. Kenya Breweries is bracing itself for serious South African competition. Budget discipline has weakened gently. The govern- ment has successfully launched a first issue of one-year Treasury bonds, and has defended its record over privatisation. The attorney-general has published a bill increasing the autonomy of the National Social Security Fund. Sectoral trends: The president has issued a disaster alert because of the famine. The Coffee Board has warned of a markedly lower crop in 1996/97. The horticulture industry is looking to expand into markets in the Middle East. The government is using beetles in a six-year programme to tackle the problem of water hyacinth in Lake Victoria. A Canadian company has discovered very large deposits of mineral sands near Kilifi. KPTC is to be broken up into four entities. Vested interests have gained the upper hand at Mombasa port, under- mining the foreign managers of the container terminal and the executive chairman of the KPA. Regional cooperation, foreign trade and payments: Services industries are exploiting the opportunities of the EAC, with the support of the secretariat in Arusha. The current-account deficit narrowed sharply in 1996, from $400m to under $50m, due to a stronger trading performance. Editor: Mark Feige All queries: Tel: (44.171) 830 1007 Fax: (44.171) 830 1023 EIU Country Report 2nd quarter 1997 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1997 4 Kenya Political structure Official name Republic of Kenya Form of state Unitary republic Legal system Based on English common law and the 1963 constitution National legislature Unicameral National Assembly of 188 elected members, 12 presidential appointees, the attorney-general and the speaker. Section 2a of the constitution, under which the Kenya African National Union (KANU) was the sole authorised party, was repealed in December 1991 National elections December 1992 (presidential and legislative); next elections due by December 1997 (presidential and legislative) Head of state President, elected by direct universal suffrage National government The president and his appointed vice-president and cabinet; reshuffled January 1997, and composed entirely of KANU members Main political parties KANU; Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD)-Asili; FORD-Kenya; Democratic Party (DP); National Development Party of Kenya (NDPK) President & commander-in-chief Daniel arap Moi Vice-president, minister for planning & national development George Saitoti Key ministers Agriculture, livestock development & marketing Darius Mbela Commerce & industry Joshua Angatia Cooperative development Kamwithi Munyi Culture & social services Winfred Nyiva Mwendwa Education Joseph Kamotho Energy Kirugi M’mukindia Environment & natural resources Henry Kosgey Finance Wycliffe Musalia Mudavadi Foreign affairs & international cooperation Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka Health Jackson Mulinge Home affairs & national heritage William ole Ntimama Information & broadcasting Johnstone Makau Labour & manpower development Philip Masinde Land reclamation, regional & water development Simeon Nyachae Lands & settlement Noah Katana Ngala Local government Francis Lotodo Office of the president Nicholas Biwott Jackson Kalweo John Kipsang arap Koech Public works & housing Jonathan Ng’eno Research, training & technology Hussein Maalim Mohamed Tourism & wildlife Protas Momanyi Transport & communications Wilson Ndolo Ayah Attorney-general Amos Wako Central Bank governor Micah Cheserem Head of the civil service Fares Kuidwa EIU Country Report 2nd quarter 1997 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1997 Kenya 5 Economic structure Latest available figures Economic indicators 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 GDP at factor cost K£a m 10,986 13,509 16,304 19,456b n/a Real GDP growth % 0.5 0.2 3.0 4.9b 4.8b Consumer price inflation % 27.3 46.0 28.8 1.6 9.0 Population m 25.2 26.0 26.8 27.5 28.3 Exports fob $ m 1,109 1,263 1,537 1,914 2,050b Imports fob $ m 1,609 1,510 1,775 2,652 2,450c Current account $ m –180 71 98 –400 47b Reserves excl gold $ m 53 406 558 353 747 Total external debt $ bn 6.91 7.12 7.16 7.38 n/a External debt-service ratio % 30.9 26.9 32.7 25.7 n/a Manufacturing output index 1990=100 105.1 107.1 109.1 113.3 119.6c Marketed tea production ’000 tons 188.1 211.1 209.5 244.5b 260.0c Coffee productiond ’000 tons 75.1 79.9 95.8 97.6 78.0e Tourist departures ’000 515 536 676 503b 480.0c Exchange rate (av) KSh:$ 32.22 58.00 56.05 51.43 57.12 April 25, 1997 KSh55.23:$1 Origins of gross domestic product 1995b % of total Components of gross domestic product 1995b % of total Agriculture, forestry & fishing 29.7 Private consumption 69.4 Manufacturing 11.1 Government consumption 15.0 Trade, restaurants & hotels 15.5 Gross fixed capital formation 21.6 Transport, storage & communications 7.8 Change in stocks 0.4 Government services 14.8 Exports of goods & services 33.1 Other (net) 21.1 Imports of goods & services –39.5 GDP at factor cost 100.0 GDP at market prices 100.0 Principal exports 1995b $ m Principal imports cif 1995b $ m Tea 350 Industrial machinery 507 Coffee 281 Motor vehicles & chassis 363 Horticulture 207 Crude petroleum 225 Petroleum products 85 Iron & steel 200 Cement 31 Resins & plastics 180 Pyrethrum extract 26 Refined petroleum products 163 Main destinations of exports 1995 % of total Main origins of imports 1995 % of total Uganda 15.8 UK 12.6 Tanzania 13.0 Japan 11.0 UK 10.0 Germany 6.8 Germany 7.6 UAE 6.7 a K£1:KSh20.