Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean LIMITED LC/CAR/L.327 22 October 2011 ORIGINAL: ENGLISH AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE COASTAL AND HUMAN SETTLEMENTS SECTOR IN GUYANA __________ This document has been reproduced without formal editing. i Notes and explanations of symbols: The following symbols have been used in this study: A full stop (.) is used to indicate decimals The use of a hyphen (-) between years, for example, 2010-2019, signifies an annual average for the calendar years involved, including the beginning and ending years, unless otherwise specified. The word ―dollar‖ refers to United States dollars, unless otherwise specified. The term ―billion‖ is taken to refer to a thousand million. N.d. refers to forthcoming material with no set publication date. The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. ii Acknowledgement The Economic Commission of Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean wishes to acknowledge the assistance of Maurice Mason, consultant, in the preparation of this report. iii Table of Contents Notes and explanations of symbols: .................................................................................... i I. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 1 Objective ................................................................................................................................. 2 General methodological approach .......................................................................................... 2 II. THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ............................................................................... 3 A. SEA LEVEL RISE .................................................................................................... 3 B. CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS ............................................................... 4 1. Projections for Atlantic storms .................................................................................. 6 C. CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION ............................................................................ 6 1. Average monthly rainfall ........................................................................................... 7 D. AVERAGE ANNUAL AIR TEMPERATURE................................................................. 8 III. POPULATION AND ECONOMY OF GUYANA ................................................................... 9 A. ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS ....................................................................................... 9 1. Barima-Waini ............................................................................................................... 10 2. Pomeroon-Supenaam ............................................................................................... 11 3. Essequibo Islands-West Demerara ........................................................................... 11 4. Demerara-Mahaica ....................................................................................................... 11 5. Mahaica-Berbice .......................................................................................................... 11 B. ECONOMY ..................................................................................................................... 11 1. Ports in Guyana ............................................................................................................ 11 2. Georgetown .................................................................................................................. 12 3. Manufacturing .............................................................................................................. 12 C. ELECTRICITY ................................................................................................................ 13 IV. LOW ELEVATION COASTAL ZONES AND CLIMATE CHANGE .................................. 14 A. HOUSING SCHEMES BELOW SEA LEVEL ............................................................... 15 1. Characteristics of households ....................................................................................... 18 2. Construction material for houses ................................................................................. 18 B. VULNERABILITY WITHIN LECZ ............................................................................... 19 1. Flooding and erosion .................................................................................................... 19 2. Freshwater shortage ..................................................................................................... 19 3. Loss of coastal ecosystems........................................................................................... 20 C. COASTAL ECOSYSTEMS AND SERVICES ............................................................... 20 1. Industrial fishery .......................................................................................................... 20 2. Mangroves .................................................................................................................... 22 V. METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................................. 26 A. LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................................ 26 iv 1. Calculation of extreme water levels ............................................................................. 27 B. ESTIMATES OF ASSET EXPOSURE ........................................................................... 28 1. Aggregate physical assets exposed .............................................................................. 29 VI. IPCC SCENARIOS ................................................................................................................. 30 A. BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................. 30 B. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS ............................................................................... 30 1. One-metre sea level rise ............................................................................................... 31 VII. VULNERABILITY PROJECTIONS ...................................................................................... 34 A. POPULATION ................................................................................................................ 34 1. Projected population exposure ..................................................................................... 34 B. GDP PROJECTIONS ...................................................................................................... 37 C. PROJECTED ASSET EXPOSURE ................................................................................. 38 D. PROJECTIONS IN COASTAL ECOSYSTEM VALUE ADDED ................................ 40 E. PROJECTED FINANCING GAP BY IPCC SCENARIO .............................................. 42 1. Recovery and reconstruction financing options ........................................................... 43 2. Recommended financing options ................................................................................. 44 VIII. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION ................................................................................... 47 A. Background ...................................................................................................................... 47 B. The philosophy of adaptation ........................................................................................... 47 C. Guyana climate change adaptation efforts ....................................................................... 49 1. Institutional framework ................................................................................................ 50 2. Sea defence adaptation efforts ..................................................................................... 50 3. Drainage system ........................................................................................................... 53 4. Conservancy adaptation ............................................................................................... 58 IX. THE NET BENEFIT FROM ADAPTATION ......................................................................... 60 A. Adaptation benefits .......................................................................................................... 61 B. Adaptation costs ............................................................................................................... 62 1. Major project/event estimates ...................................................................................... 63 C. Findings............................................................................................................................ 63 X. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS ......................................................................................... 65 A. Retrofitting the Sea Wall ................................................................................................. 66 B. Rehabilitation of mangroves ............................................................................................ 66 C. Drainage and irrigation ...................................................................................................