The Scientific Rationality of Early Statistics, 1833–1877 Yasuhiro Okazawa St Catharine’s College This dissertation is submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. November 2018 Declaration Declaration This dissertation is the result of my own work and includes nothing which is the outcome of work done in collaboration except as declared in the Preface and specified in the text. It is not substantially the same as any that I have submitted, or, is being concurrently submitted for a degree or diploma or other qualification at the University of Cambridge or any other University or similar institution except as declared in the Preface and specified in the text. I further state that no substantial part of my dissertation has already been submitted, or, is being concurrently submitted for any such degree, diploma or other qualification at the University of Cambridge or any other University or similar institution except as declared in the Preface and specified in the text It does not exceed the prescribed word limit of 80,000 words for the Degree Committee of the Faculty of History. Yasuhiro Okazawa 13 November 2018 i Thesis Summary The Scientific Rationality of Early Statistics, 1833–1877 Yasuhiro Okazawa Summary This thesis examines the activities of the Statistical Society of London (SSL) and its contribution to early statistics—conceived as the science of humans in society—in Britain. The SSL as a collective entity played a crucial role in the formation of early statistics, as statisticians envisaged early statistics as a collaborative scientific project and prompted large-scale observation, which required cooperation among numerous statistical observers. The first three chapters discuss how the SSL shaped the concepts, practices, and institutions of statistical data production. The SSL demonstrated how the use of a hierarchical division of labour and blank form minimised observers’ leeway to exercise individual observational skills and ensured uniformity in the production of statistical facts. This arrangement effectively depreciated first-hand observation in statistics and allowed statisticians to rely on the statistical facts collected by other people. It prompted the SSL to launch the Journal of the Statistical Society of London to serve as a virtual storage of observed facts where one could share their data for further aggregation and retrieve that of others for their analysis. The statisticians also engaged in contemporaneous discussion on the best mode of a statistical office with a view towards producing complete and internationally comparable statistical facts. The SSL’s endorsement of the Belgian Central Statistical Commission model and the International Statistical Congress was intended to support the introduction of uniformity into statistical data at both the national and international levels. The last two chapters of this thesis discuss how the SSL’s activities contributed to the historical formation of human sciences and the emergence of social scientists. Statisticians demanded the recognition of a scientific field which, independent from natural science, studied people as social beings and whose discourses moulded the treatment of the people they studied. The SSL’s activities helped statisticians not only establish their scientific expertise but also develop their unique scientific ethos. Statisticians learnt not to trust their personal observations since individuals could see only a partial, and potentially distorted, picture of society. Instead, statisticians disciplined themselves to patiently wait for the accumulation of statistical facts and analyse data in their entirety because this was the only way, they believed, to truly understand the complex relationships people had with each other. The SSL’s activities assisted statisticians’ conception of statistical fact and produced a new kind of intellectual inquirer who patiently collected statistical facts as the basis of knowing and intervening in people’s lives. ii Acknowledgements Acknowledgements My research project on the history of early statistics grew from my interest in Ian Hacking’s writings and my experiences as a sociology student at the University of Tokyo. The enthusiastic endorsement of my research idea by my then supervisor, Akihiro Kitada (北田暁大), convinced me of this project’s potential. Without his encouragement and the help of my then advisor, Yukio Maeda(前田幸男), I would never have considered further pursuing my interest in early statistics and studying in the UK. The Heiwa Nakajima Foundation generously supported my study at the University of Essex. Edward Higgs kindly agreed to be my host researcher and provided invaluable advice on my project. After moving to Cambridge, my thesis supervisor, Simon Szreter, helped me navigate the long journey of my PhD. I particularly benefitted from his expertise in the history of demography and public health and his profound knowledge on the interaction of social scientific knowledge and policy making. His advice helped me refine the main focus of my thesis about early statistics’ impact on our way of understanding and treating people. I also would like to thank my advisor, Pedro Ramos Pinto, for encouraging me to make use of my social scientific background for my historical project. My PhD study at Cambridge is generously funded by the Japan Student Services Organisation (JASSO), for which I am very grateful. I thank the members of the Cultural History Workshop for commenting on the early draft of my thesis. I appreciate the friendships that I was fortunate to have at the Cambridge History Department. Especially, I thank Victoria Bartels, Kuan-jen Chen (陳冠任), Laia Portet i Codina, and Walter Jansson for offering their encouragement throughout the writing process of my thesis. Special thanks are in order to Chika Tonooka for her brilliant academic advice and practical tips for living comfortably in a foreign land. The Cambridge History Department, the St Catharine’s College Eric Stokes Fund, and the British Society for the History of Science’s Butler Eyles Grant kindly supported my attendance at the British Society for the History of Science meetings, where I was fortunate to discuss my research with many historians of science. I am particularly grateful for the advice I received from Daniel Belteki and Marco Tamborini. The Max Planck Institute for the History of Science offered me a generous predoctoral fellowship to complete my thesis at their Department II. The institute’s cosmopolitan and interdisciplinary atmosphere and the staff’s remarkable hospitality made my stay in Berlin iii Acknowledgements one of the most pleasant experiences of my PhD study. I thank all the participants of the Doctoral Seminar who read and commented on my work. My special thanks go to Eric Moses Gurevitch, Lily Xiaolei Huang, Nicolas Michel, Kristine Palmieri, Ohad Reiss Sorokin, Laura Sumrall, Mirjam Voerkelius, and Hansun Hsiung for their encouragement and advice at the final writing stage of my thesis. I thank the members of the Hongō Conceptual Analysis Workshop (本郷概念分析研究会) in Tokyo, which was established as an interdisciplinary platform to discuss the intersection of ethnomethodology and Foucault/Hacking style history. I am very grateful for the constructive feedback I received from fellow PhD students there throughout my PhD studies. Special thanks are due to Yasuaki Dan (團康晃), Ken Kawamura (河村賢), Ryo Okazawa (岡沢亮), and Saori Yamazaki (山﨑沙織) for reading and commenting on my thesis draft. My research was impossible without the primary sources made available by the Royal Statistical Society. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to the Royal Statistical Society’s archivist, Janet Foster, for her kind help and encouragement on my research. I also would like to thank the anonymous proofreader EM1066 from Scribendi Inc. for their professional proofreading. Lastly, I would like to thank my family. Without my brother’s unconditional support and belief in me, it would have been impossible for me to go to a university, let alone write a PhD thesis. Having conversations with him also provided me a glimpse of economists’ scientific ethos, the history of which is an important part of my thesis. My deepest gratitude goes to my mother. Raising two children in any circumstances is a demanding task, but it was even more so for her after my late father suffered from a stroke. When it happened, I was six. For nearly ten years after that, my mother worked during the day, took care of two young children at home, and visited her husband at a care house every Saturday. Through her conversations with my late father, she also gave me the profound knowledge that the elaborate use of language was not necessarily the most important or even a central part of human interaction, although I understood her point a little too late. My thesis is nothing compared to my mother’s incredible accomplishments and deep understanding of human lives, but I would like to acknowledge my infinite admiration for her intelligence, courage, and kindness by dedicating this thesis to her. iv Table of Contents Table of Contents Abbreviations ………………………………………………………………………… vi Introduction …………………………………………………………………………… 1 Chapter 1: Faceless Facts, Nameless Gatherers: The Statistical Society of London and the Expanding Community of Observers in Statistics, 1834–1848…………………………24 Chapter 2: Colourless Writings of Statisticians and Their Distant Readers: The Creation of the Journal of the Statistical Society of London, 1838–1858………….…………… 60 Chapter 3: What