GLOBAL ALERT The Rationality of Modern Islamist Terrorism and the Challenge to the Liberal Democratic World BOAZ GANOR GLOBAL ALERT COLUMBIA STUDIES IN TERRORISM AND IRREGULAR WARFARE COLUMBIA STUDIES IN TERRORISM AND IRREGULAR WARFARE Bruce Hoffman, Series Editor This series seeks to fill a conspicuous gap in the burgeoning literature on terrorism, guerrilla warfare, and insurgency. The series adheres to the highest standards of scholarship and discourse and publishes books that elucidate the strategy, operations, means, motivations, and effects posed by terrorist, guer- rilla, and insurgent organizations and movements. It thereby provides a solid and increasingly expanding foundation of knowledge on these subjects for students, established scholars, and informed reading audiences alike. Ami Pedahzur, The Israeli Secret Services and the Struggle Against Terrorism Ami Pedahzur and Arie Perliger, Jewish Terrorism in Israel Lorenzo Vidino, The New Muslim Brotherhood in the West Erica Chenoweth and Maria J. Stephan, Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Resistance William C. Banks, New Battlefields/Old Laws: Critical Debates on Asymmetric Warfare Blake W. Mobley, Terrorism and Counterintelligence: How Terrorist Groups Elude Detection Guido W. Steinberg, German Jihad: On the Internationalization of Islamist Terrorism Michael W. S. Ryan, Decoding Al-Qaeda’s Strategy: The Deep Battle Against America David H. Ucko and Robert Egnell, Counterinsurgency in Crisis: Britain and the Challenges of Modern Warfare Bruce Hoffman and Fernando Reinares, editors, The Evolution of the Global Terrorist Threat: From 9/11 to Osama bin Laden’s Death BOAZ GANOR GLOBAL ALERT The Rationality of Modern Islamist Terrorism and the Challenge to the Liberal Democratic World Columbia University Press / New York Columbia University Press Publishers Since 1893 New York Chichester, West Sussex cup.columbia.edu Copyright © 2015 Columbia University Press Chapter three first published, in slightly different form, in William C. Banks, ed., Shaping a Global Legal Framework for Counterinsurgency: New Directions in Asymmetric Warfare (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012). By permission of Oxford University Press. All rights reserved Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Ganor, Boaz. Global alert : the rationality of modern Islamist terrorism and the challenge to the liberal democratic world / Boaz Ganor. pages cm. — (Columbia studies in terrorism and irregular warfare) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-231-17212-7 (cloth : alk. paper) — ISBN 978-0-231-53891-6 (ebook) 1. Terrorism—Islamic countries. 2. Terrorism—Religious aspects—Islam. 3. Terrorism—Prevention. I. Title. HV6433.I74.G36 2015 363.325—dc23 2014029475 Columbia University Press books are printed on permanent and durable acid-free paper. This book is printed on paper with recycled content. Printed in the United States of America c 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Cover design: Noah Arlow Cover image: Geoff Spear References to websites (URLs) were accurate at the time of writing. Neither the author nor Columbia University Press is responsible for URLs that may have expired or changed since the manuscript was prepared. CONTENTS Acknowledgments vii Introduction ix 1. INTRODUCTION TO MULTIDIMENSIONAL WARFARE: Defining Terrorism, Redefining War 1 2. THE CHALLENGES AND DILEMMAS FACED BY LIBERAL DEMOCRACIES COPING WITH MODERN ISLAMIST TERRORISM 21 3. THE PROPORTIONALITY DILEMMA IN COUNTERING TERRORISM 37 4. STATE INVOLVEMENT IN TERRORISM 64 CONTENTS 5. THE HYBRID TERRORIST ORGANIZATION 73 6. IS LIBERAL DEMOCRACY THE SOLUTION TO TERRORISM—OR IS IT PART OF THE PROBLEM? 84 7. THE RATIONALE OF MODERN ISLAMIST TERRORISM 97 8. THE PRACTICAL ASPECTS OF AN ISLAMIST TERRORIST ORGANIZATION’S RATIONALE 119 9. UNDERSTANDING THE RATIONALE BEHIND DIFFERENT TYPES OF TERRORIST ATTACKS 133 10. THE RATIONALE OF THE MODERN ISLAMIST TERRORIST ORGANIZATION: Hamas as a Case Study 150 11. CONCLUSION 172 Notes 181 Selected Bibliography 205 Index 211 vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS HIS BOOK IS dedicated to my wife, Amit Ganor, and my children, Lee, Tom, and Dan, as an expression of my love and gratitude for their T understanding and support through all the years of my professional work and especially during the writing of this book. The book is also dedi- cated to my parents of blessed memory, Shulamit and David Ganor, who instilled in me the passion for learning, research, and writing. It would be impossible for me to thank all of my colleagues who advised and guided me during the research phase of this book, but special thanks are due to Marsha Weinstein, who translated and edited the book with exceptional skill and professionalism, and above all to my assistant and dear friend Stevie Weinberg, director of operations at the International Insti- tute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT), who played a valuable and central role in preparing the book for publication. I would like to thank my friends and acquaintances who supported the publishing of this book—Shabtai Shavit, former head of the Mossad and chairman of the ICT board of directors; Congressman Peter King, member of the Homeland Security Committee and chairman of the Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence; Judge Jean-Louis Bruguiere, former head, Counter-Terrorism Unit, Paris District Court, and former leading French magistrate for investigating counterterrorism, France; Fernando ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Reinares, professor of political science, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, and senior analyst on international terrorism, Real Instituto Elcano Madrid, Spain; and Brian Jenkins, senior advisor to the president, RAND Corpo- ration. In addition, I want to thank Columbia University Press and edi- tor Anne Routon, as well as Columbia Studies in Terrorism and Irregular Warfare series editor Bruce Hoffman. In conclusion, I would like to thank Uriel Reichman, founder and president of the Interdisciplinary Center (IDC), Herzliya—my academic home—whose distinct academic vision and initiative prompted his con- stant support of all my academic activities throughout the past two decades, both at the ICT and in personal endeavors. I also am grateful to Ambassa- dor Ronald S. Lauder, who granted me the Chair for Counter-Terrorism at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy, and Strategy, as well as my dear friends Daniel Jusid Man and Daphna and Gerry Cramer. viii INTRODUCTION O EACH AGE its challenges. Barely over half a century ago, the interna- tional community grappled with fascism; less than half that time ago, T it seemed that communism would be the scourge to end all scourges. The formation, dismantling, and re-formation of nations and nation-blocs of the past century and a half have been accompanied by changes in the way wars are fought, and in where and how they are fought. Although terror- ism is not a modern phenomenon, it has in the modern age continued to don and slough off various incarnations: from state terrorization of civilian populations during World War II, through the anti-colonial campaigns of the Viet Minh and EOKA, to the anarchistic and nationalistic terrorism of the Red Brigades, IRA, and PLO. Recent years have seen an increase in the religious-ideological terrorism of Islamist-jihadists, whose manipula- tion of supportive civilian populations so as to wield violence against other civilians whom they regard as infidels represents a “perfecting” of modern terrorist strategies. Islamist-jihadist terrorism—a plague that has spread to almost every corner of the world—creates painful dilemmas for the peoples and decision makers who confront it. Its rapid, shape-shifting advance has sometimes confounded efforts to comprehend its origins, motives, and aims. Its sophistication in exploiting liberal values poses challenges and difficul- ties for the Western world, and for liberal democratic states in general, in INTRODUCTION attaining effective and balanced counter-terrorism policies. It is this gap in the understanding of Islamist-jihadist terrorism, as an offshoot and devel- opment of modern terrorism, that Global Alert wishes to bridge. Chapter 1 begins the work of bridging the gap in understanding current trends and challenges in countering Islamist terrorism by providing a his- torical perspective on modern terrorism, as opposed to traditional warfare. It proposes a definition of terrorism, which takes into account the difficulty that the international community has so far had in reaching consensus on such a definition. It also reviews the reaction of today’s terrorists—Islamist terrorists among them—to liberal democracy, including their warped inter- pretation of modern liberal democratic governance and attempts to under- mine it to achieve their aims. Chapter 2 expands on terrorism’s exploitation of liberal democracy and explains the main dilemmas that this generates for the liberal democratic state plagued by terrorism. The chapter also describes the tango danced by terrorism and the liberal, free media, and explains how terrorist organizations “spin” their actions to send different messages to different target audiences. The tension created by the effort to devise efficient counter-terrorism strategies while preserving liberal democratic values gives rise to yet another dilemma, that of the proportionality of the response to terrorism. Chapter 3 addresses the conundrum of proportionality by first taking up the thread of analysis presented in chapter 1, this time in light of international humani- tarian law. Developed to provide a frame