University of Tennessee, Knoxville TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange Doctoral Dissertations Graduate School 5-2013 Paleodemography of the Larson Site (39WW2) Cemetery: How Age-at-Death Methods Influence Model Estimation Rebecca Taylor [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_graddiss Part of the Biological and Physical Anthropology Commons Recommended Citation Taylor, Rebecca, "Paleodemography of the Larson Site (39WW2) Cemetery: How Age-at-Death Methods Influence Model Estimation. " PhD diss., University of Tennessee, 2013. https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_graddiss/1784 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange. It has been accepted for inclusion in Doctoral Dissertations by an authorized administrator of TRACE: Tennessee Research and Creative Exchange. For more information, please contact [email protected]. To the Graduate Council: I am submitting herewith a dissertation written by Rebecca Taylor entitled "Paleodemography of the Larson Site (39WW2) Cemetery: How Age-at-Death Methods Influence Model Estimation." I have examined the final electronic copy of this dissertation for form and content and recommend that it be accepted in partial fulfillment of the equirr ements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, with a major in Anthropology. Lyle W. Konigsberg, Major Professor We have read this dissertation and recommend its acceptance: Lee Meadows Jantz, Andrew Kramer, Darinka Mileusnic-Polchan Accepted for the Council: Carolyn R. Hodges Vice Provost and Dean of the Graduate School (Original signatures are on file with official studentecor r ds.) PALEODEMOGRAPHY OF THE LARSON SITE (39WW2) CEMETERY: HOW AGE-AT-DEATH METHODS INFLUENCE MODEL ESTIMATION A Dissertation Presented for the Doctor of Philosophy Degree The University of Tennessee, Knoxville Rebecca Taylor May 2013 Copyright © 2013 by Rebecca Taylor. All rights reserved. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS When I started at the University of Tennessee in the fall of 2001, I would have told you that I was pursuing a career in forensic anthropology and will be getting myself out of Knoxville as soon as I could. Well several years later and an appreciation for the holistic approach to anthropology instilled by the faculty, I owe my development as a person and as an anthropologist to many individuals. First and foremost, I would like to thank Dr. Lee Meadows Jantz for taking me under her wing from the very first semester I was a teaching assistant for her osteology class to becoming her assistant at the Forensic Anthropology Center. She has supported me through this entire journey and gave this naïve girl wanting to do anthropology a chance. You have been there through the many trials of tribulations of life, both professionally and privately, and I could not have asked for a better mentor. I know I have gained a lifelong friend and colleague and hope I one day can repay you for all that you have taught me and all of the opportunities you have given me. I also owe a much need thank you to Dr. Darinka Mileusnic, who in the Spring of 2008 told me that I needed to start thinking about my own career. I was trying to do everything and it was taking its toll. It took me a few more years, but I finally understood. Thank you for forcing me to balance. Also, thank you Dr. Lyle Konigsberg for encouraging me to persevere. I appreciate your willingness to keep me as a student and sitting as my committee chair since leaving the university. You have provided me with valuable assistance, R code, and input on the dissertation. My goal was to prove to you I could do it and I hope I have. Thank you Dr. Kramer for showing me what it takes to be a teacher. iii None of this would be possible without the love of my family. I remember when I told my mother that I wanted to pursue anthropology instead of medicine. Her response was “well as long as you can support yourself.” Both my parents sacrificed and made sure that my siblings and I had the opportunities they did not, while allowing us to take our own path. I appreciate being allowed to find my own way. It may have taken me longer than most, but all that matters is that I did the best I could at the time. I also know I would not have been able to do any of this without my loving husband Anthony. You have taught me so much, including the type of person I should and want to be. Your endless patience with me putting everything but you first is more than anyone could ask. You will always be the epitome of southern hospitality in my eyes. It will take me a lifetime to repay you, but I am looking forward to it. A special thank you must be given to the Department of Anthropology secretaries, Pam, Pam, Charlene, and Donna. I have worked with you for many years and know first- hand you are the unsung heroes of the department. Thank you for all of the help, especially after I left the department. There are many people that have come into out of my life these last several years. All of you have played a role in my renewed dedication to a career in anthropology and have provided the inspiration and drive to complete this research. iv ABSTRACT The Arikara are one of the last Native American tribes to have direct contact with Europeans. Prior to westward expansion of Euro-American settlers, the Arikara served as middlemen in a complex trade network that brought European goods to the Upper Plains in exchange for fur and food items. In the 18th century with a growing European presence in the region, the Arikara experienced drastic bio-cultural and socio-political destabilization leading to population decline. However, these transitions are unclear because of limited written records prior to the early 19th century. Several hypotheses have been proposed to account for the near extinction of the Arikara tribe including warfare, inter- and intra-tribal conflict, disease, and resource stress. This research sought to better understand the population dynamics within the Larson Site. The Larson Site (39WW2) cemetery, a relatively unbiased and well- preserved skeletal assemblage (N=643), was re-analyzed to evaluate the demographic variability associated with increased European presence. The main focus of this research demonstrates how age-at-death estimation methods impact the mortality profiles and demographic measures derived from them. Traditional phase-base approaches, long bone skeletal development, Transition Analysis, and multifactorial approaches for both juvenile and adult individuals were used to compute age-at-death estimates for each individual within the cemetery. The point age-at-death estimates served as the basis for survival analysis via parametric hazards models. The Siler model was used to understand the overall pattern of mortality, while the Gompertz and Gompertz-Makeham models were used to explore adult-specific mortality patterns. The results indicate that the high number of juveniles and the relatively low survivorship of adults imply that the v population may have been experiencing a mortality event, like an epidemic. The high fertility and death rate must be incorporated into future models. Also, the overall patterning of the adult mortality is obscuring any sex-specific adult mortality pattern. This research is the beginning of a larger project to explore the utility of multi- state models of morbidity and mortality to better explain the population dynamics within the Larson Site and between the Larson and other Arikara villages. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 ....................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1 Issues of Interpreting Population Change ....................................................................... 3 Age-at-death Estimation’s Impact on Demographic Model Building ............................ 7 Sex-Specific Adult Mortality ........................................................................................ 12 Summary ....................................................................................................................... 13 CHAPTER 2 ..................................................................................................................... 15 Archaeology and Cultural Affiliation of Larson Site (39WW2) ...................................... 15 Background ................................................................................................................... 15 Cultural Affiliation........................................................................................................ 16 The Archaeological Context ......................................................................................... 18 Dating of the Larson Village Site ................................................................................. 22 The Arikara ................................................................................................................... 23 Mortality ................................................................................................................... 26 Summary ....................................................................................................................... 31 CHAPTER 3 ..................................................................................................................... 32 Paleodemography