Reducing the costs and impacts of bushfires A report by the Independent Bushfire Group after the Black Summer fires of 2019-2020 July 2020 The Independent Bushfire Group is 12 non-aligned bushfire practitioners, fire managers, land managers, fire researchers and ecologists with over 400 years of collective experience in bushfires, land management and fire ecology across a range of fire landscapes. We focus on practical firefighting issues. A version of this report was submitted to the NSW Independent Bushfire Inquiry in June 2020. This report may be updated from time to time. 1 Table of Contents Preamble ............................................................................................................................................... 3 Summary and Recommendations ........................................................................................................ 4 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 11 Part 1 – Causes and Contributing Factors .......................................................................................... 15 1.1 Summary of Fire Studies ......................................................................................................... 15 Part 2 – Preparation and Planning ..................................................................................................... 17 2.1 A Risk-based Approach to Bushfires ....................................................................................... 17 2.2 Aspects of Bushland Management ......................................................................................... 24 2.3 Community Fire Planning ........................................................................................................ 36 2.4 Critical Fire Incident Management Skills ................................................................................ 44 2.5 Research .................................................................................................................................. 52 Part 3 – Response to Bushfires ........................................................................................................... 55 3.1 Initial Attack for Remote Fires ................................................................................................ 55 3.2. Fire Behaviour Modelling ....................................................................................................... 64 3.3 Suppression Strategies for Large Fires ................................................................................... 71 3.4 Fire Incident Management Arrangements ............................................................................. 85 Part 4 – Other Matters - Recovery ..................................................................................................... 91 4.1 Post Fire Review of Operations .............................................................................................. 91 4.2 Environmental Recovery ....................................................................................................... 105 4.3 Community Education .......................................................................................................... 116 Part 5 – Detailed Fire Studies ........................................................................................................... 120 Fire Study 1 .................................................................................................................................. 131 Fire Study 2 .................................................................................................................................. 136 Fire Study 3 .................................................................................................................................. 140 Fire Study 4 .................................................................................................................................. 145 Fire Study 5 .................................................................................................................................. 150 Fire Study 6 .................................................................................................................................. 155 Fire Study 7 .................................................................................................................................. 160 Fire Study 8 .................................................................................................................................. 166 Fire Study 9 .................................................................................................................................. 170 Fire study 10 ................................................................................................................................. 175 Fire Study 11 ................................................................................................................................ 177 Appendix A ........................................................................................................................................ 179 Report Authors ............................................................................................................................. 179 2 Preamble The extraordinary bushfires of 2019-2020 present an historic opportunity to recognise the best in bushfire management and to drive improvement. The fire environment has changed with respect to climate, community exposure, fire intensity and size. Costs to communities, health, environment and government are escalating. The costs in NSW alone of suppression, recovery and the broader economic impacts of the 2019- 2020 fire season will run into billions of dollars. Then there are the less tangible but no less important effects on individuals, firefighters, communities, physical and mental health, ecosystems, catchments and wildlife. The community, media and governments have never been so interested or receptive. All these factors create the opportunity for change to fire management practices that will: • better protect communities • reduce costs • reduce the overall risk and trauma to firefighters • conserve our natural heritage. It is also important to counter simplistic solutions that could lead to less effective fire management with even greater impacts. Firefighters deserve to be supported with the best possible systems and strategies. Fires no longer behave the way they did 40 or so years ago when some of the authors commenced their professional and volunteer roles as fire managers, but over that period we have experienced the gradual, yet predictable, change that culminated in the 2019-2020 fire season. In this report we share our concerns, thoughts and recommendations from the 2019- 2020 season and highlight new opportunities that this season’s experiences can offer firefighters. As a group of dedicated fire practitioners, we have a strong interest in seeing sensible changes adopted in response to the 2019-2020 experience. Whether this is a thorough rethink on fire prediction modelling, a review of the effectiveness of the current ways assets are given protection on the bush/urban interface, a new focus on supporting key firefighting roles such as Divisional Commanders or improving community resilience; all these and other priority initiatives are addressed in the report. Managing bushfires is a whole-of-community project. Fire agencies can do their best, but they need the support and commitment of the community, government, independent experts, scientists, non-government organisations and other agencies. This crisis represents a once-in-a-generation opportunity for genuine reform. Editorial, Sydney Morning Herald, 6 January, 2020 Preamble 3 Summary and Recommendations This report has been prepared by a collaboration of 12 bush fire practitioners, fire managers, land managers, fire researchers and ecologists. Together we have over 400 years of practical, professional experience in bushfires, land management and fire ecology across a range of fire landscapes. The report has a pragmatic approach to, and operational focus on, issues within our expertise. It applies our collective knowledge to close observation and analysis of the recent NSW bushfires. Detailed studies of particular fires form part of this analysis. We believe firefighters deserve to be supported with the best systems and strategies. We are putting forward comprehensive recommendations for improved operational performance, systems development and research priorities for bushfire management in NSW and beyond. We recommend changes to fire management that will: • better protect communities • reduce costs • reduce overall risk and trauma to firefighters and, • conserve our natural heritage. We suggest the greatest gains can be made from improvements to risk-based strategic thinking, research, initial attack, suppression strategies, critical skills and operational reviews. Current practices have been tested during the 2019-2020 fires and amongst many ‘wins’, they have not always been successful. Multiple difficult fires and resource shortages as in the 2019-2020 season, make the best systems and processes even more important to achieving the best outcomes. Many challenges are a product of how fire suppression is thought about, organised and resourced. Others require stronger evidenced-based and new-thinking approaches to meet the challenge of climate