Montana Department of Transportation Working Paper #1: Assessment of Existing Conditions Final Prepared by: HDR | HLB Decision Economics Inc. 8403 Colesville Road, Suite 910 Silver Spring, Maryland 20910 Tel: (240) 485-2600 Fax: (240) 485-2635 April 2007 DISCLAIMER Some of the claims and conclusions presented in this report are based on interviews conducted by the research team between May and July 2006. Whenever possible, data and technical analysis are provided in the report to substantiate these claims. When no data or analysis is provided, please remember that further analysis is necessary to determine whether the claim, or conclusion, is supported by the facts. US 2 / MT 16 TRED STUDY MDT EXISTING CONDITIONS PAGE I APRIL 2007 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1: INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................. 1 2: OVERVIEW OF THE STUDY AREA ............................................................................... 3 2.1 DEFINITION OF THE STUDY AREA .................................................................................... 3 2.2 POPULATION AND SOCIAL CONDITIONS ........................................................................... 8 2.2.1 Population...................................................................................................................... 8 2.2.2 Major Cities ................................................................................................................. 10 2.2.3 Age Distribution........................................................................................................... 11 2.2.4 Race Distribution......................................................................................................... 12 2.2.5 Mobility Status ............................................................................................................. 13 2.2.6 Income Status............................................................................................................... 15 2.3 INDUSTRY STRUCTURE AND TRENDS ............................................................................. 16 2.3.1 Employment by Industry .............................................................................................. 16 2.3.2 Output and Establishments by Industry....................................................................... 19 2.4 KEY INDUSTRIES AND SECTORS IN THE STUDY AREA .................................................... 22 2.4.1 Agriculture................................................................................................................... 22 2.4.2 Energy.......................................................................................................................... 26 2.4.3 Tourism ........................................................................................................................ 33 2.4.4 Retail Trade ................................................................................................................. 36 2.5 LABOR MARKET ............................................................................................................ 38 2.5.1 Employment, Unemployment, and Participation Rates............................................... 38 2.5.2 Educational Attainment ............................................................................................... 40 2.6 EXISTING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLANS AND EMERGING TRENDS .......................... 40 2.6.1 Agriculture................................................................................................................... 40 2.6.2 Energy.......................................................................................................................... 41 2.6.3 Tourism ........................................................................................................................ 41 2.6.4 Transportation ............................................................................................................. 41 2.6.5 Others........................................................................................................................... 42 3: TRANSPORTATION CHARACTERISTICS, ACCESS, AND PERFORMANCE ISSUES......................................................................................................................................... 44 3.1 EXISTING TRANSPORTATION NETWORK AND ITS CHARACTERISTICS ............................. 44 3.1.1 Transportation Network and Key Routes..................................................................... 44 3.1.2 Highway Traffic and Congestion................................................................................. 48 3.2 COMMERCIAL SHIPMENTS IN MONTANA........................................................................ 51 3.2.1 Origin and Destination of Commercial Shipments...................................................... 51 3.2.2 Shipments Crossing the US – Canadian Border.......................................................... 55 3.2.3 Shipments by Mode ...................................................................................................... 63 3.2.4 Commodity Structure of Shipments.............................................................................. 65 3.3 COMMERCIAL SHIPMENTS IN THE STUDY AREA............................................................. 68 3.4 INDIVIDUAL TRAFFIC GENERATION ............................................................................... 70 3.5 EFFECT OF TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM ON TOURISM...................................................... 71 US 2 / MT 16 TRED STUDY MDT EXISTING CONDITIONS PAGE II APRIL 2007 3.6 TRANSPORTATION AND COMPETITIVENESS OF INDUSTRIES IN THE STUDY AREA........... 72 3.6.1 Supply of Transportation Services............................................................................... 72 3.6.2 Industrial Demand for Transportation ........................................................................ 77 3.7 SAFETY ISSUES .............................................................................................................. 78 3.8 CONSTRAINTS AND REGULATIONS AFFECTING TRANSPORTATION................................. 81 3.8.1 Federal Highway Regulations ..................................................................................... 81 4: EXISTING CONDITIONS IN NEIGHBORING REGIONS......................................... 83 4.1 NORTH DAKOTA ............................................................................................................ 83 4.1.1 Population and Employment........................................................................................ 83 4.1.2 Industry Structure ........................................................................................................ 83 4.1.3 Traffic and Freight Movements ................................................................................... 84 4.1.3.1 Shipments Crossing the US-Canadian Border ..................................................... 87 4.1.3.2 North Dakota Sections of the Theodore Roosevelt Expressway........................... 91 4.2 SOUTH DAKOTA............................................................................................................. 94 4.2.1 Population and Employment........................................................................................ 94 4.2.2 Industry Structure ........................................................................................................ 94 4.2.3 Traffic and Freight Movements ................................................................................... 95 4.3 SASKATCHEWAN............................................................................................................ 98 4.3.1 Population and Employment........................................................................................ 98 4.3.2 Industry Structure ........................................................................................................ 99 4.3.3 Traffic and Freight Movements ................................................................................. 100 4.3.3.1 Saskatchewan Highway 6 Information ............................................................... 103 5: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................... 106 APPENDIX A: SUPPORTING MATERIAL......................................................................... 109 APPENDIX B: ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY AND DATA SOURCES ...................... 114 US 2 / MT 16 TRED STUDY MDT EXISTING CONDITIONS PAGE III APRIL 2007 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2-1: Study Area – Local Level .............................................................................................4 Figure 2-2: Study Area – Regional Level........................................................................................6 Figure 2-3: Study Area – National Level.........................................................................................7 Figure 2-4: Population in Montana and the Study Area ..................................................................8 Figure 2-5: Age Distribution of Population in Study Area in Year 2000......................................11 Figure 2-6: Population Migration between 2000 and 1990 ...........................................................14 Figure 2-7: Crude Oil Production in the U.S. and Montana..........................................................27 Figure 2-8: Montana Crude Oil Production with World