YIELDING A FRUITFUL HARVEST Advanced methods and analysis of regional potentials for sustainable biomass value chains interlinked with environmental and land use impacts of agricultural intensification YIELDING A FRUITFUL HARVEST Advanced methods and analysis of regional potentials for sustainable biomass value chains interlinked with environmental and land use impacts of agricultural intensification PhD dissertation Sarah Gerssen-Gondelach, November 2015 Utrecht University | Faculty of Geosciences | Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development | Energy and Resources group The research reported in this thesis was carried out in the context of the research program Knowledge Infrastructure for Sustainable Biomass, which was funded by the Dutch Ministries of ‘Economic Affairs’ and ‘Infrastructure and the Environment’. In addition, the research was partly conducted within the ILUC prevention project which was funded by the Netherlands Enterprise Agency, the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, the Dutch Sustainable Biomass Commission and the Rotterdam Climate Initiative / Port of Rotterdam. The case study carried out in the context of the ILUC prevention project was funded by Shell. Copyright © 2015, Sarah Gerssen-Gondelach ISBN 978-90-8672-067-5 Cover: AgileColor Lay-out: Jos Hendrix – Ridderprint BV – www.ridderprint.nl Printing: Ridderprint BV – www.ridderprint.nl YIELDING A FRUITFUL HARVEST Advanced methods and analysis of regional potentials for sustainable biomass value chains interlinked with environmental and land use impacts of agricultural intensification EEN VRUCHTBARE OOGST Geavanceerde methoden en analyse van regionale potenties voor duurzame biomassa ketens gekoppeld aan milieu- en landgebruik-effecten van landbouwintensivering (met een samenvatting in het Nederlands) Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Universiteit Utrecht op gezag van de rector magnificus, prof.dr. G.J. van der Zwaan, ingevolge het besluit van het college voor promoties in het openbaar te verdedigen op vrijdag 29 januari 2016 des middags te 2.30 uur door Sarah Janna Gondelach geboren op 17 oktober 1985 te Vleuten-De Meern Promotor: Prof. dr. A.P.C. Faaij Copromotor: Dr. B. Wicke TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS 11 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 13 1.1 Current and future resources for energy and materials 14 1.2 Biomass demand and potentials 14 1.3 State of the art and knowledge gaps 16 1.4 Research questions and thesis outline 20 References 23 CHAPTER 2 ASSESSMENT OF DRIVING FACTORS FOR YIELD AND 29 PRODUCTIVITY DEVELOPMENTS IN CROP AND CATTLE PRODUCTION AS KEY TO INCREASING SUSTAINABLE BIOMASS POTENTIALS Abstract 30 2.1 Introduction 31 2.2 Methods 33 2.2.1 Selection of agricultural products and producing countries 33 2.2.2 Historical developments in driving factors 34 2.2.3 Historical yield and productivity developments 34 2.2.4 Future yield projections and the role of driving factors 35 2.3 Results 36 2.3.1 Yield and productivity developments 36 2.3.2 Yield projections 46 2.4 Discussion 52 2.4.1 FAO data 52 2.4.2 Yield indicators for cattle 53 2.4.3 Yield projections and assessment of biomass potentials 54 2.5 Conclusions 55 Acknowledgements 56 References 57 Appendices 63 A2.1 Historical developments in global agricultural sector 63 A2.2 Australia 64 A2.3 Brazil 67 A2.4 China 70 A2.5 India 73 A2.6 USA 76 A2.7 Zambia 80 A2.8 Zimbabwe 83 A2.9 Additional figures and tables 85 CHAPTER 3 INTENSIFICATION PATHWAYS FOR BEEF AND DAIRY 91 CATTLE PRODUCTION SYSTEMS: IMPACTS ON GHG EMISSIONS, LAND OCCUPATION AND LAND USE CHANGE Abstract 92 3.1 Introduction 93 3.2 Materials and Methods 94 3.2.1 Literature review and data 94 3.2.2 Cattle production systems 95 3.2.3 Functional unit and data standardization 96 3.2.4 GHG emissions without LUC 97 3.2.5 Land occupation 98 3.2.6 LUC-related emissions 98 3.3 Results 99 3.3.1 Impact of intensification on GHG emissions without LUC 99 3.3.2 Impact of intensification on land use change and associated 106 emissions 3.4 Discussion 109 3.4.1 Data cover and data quality 109 3.4.2 LUC 111 3.5 Conclusions 112 References 114 Appendices 118 A3.1 Literature review of dairy production systems 118 A3.2 Literature review of beef production systems 128 A3.3 Extended review of various literature reviews of dairy 138 production systems A3.4 Extended review of various literature reviews of beef 144 production systems A3.5 Land use change emissions per region 149 A3.6 Livestock classification and countries and regions included in 150 literature and GLOBIOM CHAPTER 4 BIOETHANOL POTENTIAL FROM MISCANTHUS WITH 155 LOW ILUC RISK IN THE PROVINCE OF LUBLIN, POLAND Abstract 156 4.1 Introduction 157 4.2 Methods and materials 158 4.2.1 Assessment of low-ILUC-risk biofuel potential 158 4.2.2 Assessment of ILUC mitigation measures 161 4.3 Results: ILUC mitigation potentials 168 4.3.1 Above-baseline yield development 168 4.3.2 Increased food chain efficiency 169 4.3.3 Biofuel feedstock production on under-utilized lands 169 4.3.4 Land zoning 170 4.3.5 Integrated analysis 171 4.3.6 Monitoring ILUC and ILUC mitigation measures 173 4.4 Discussion and conclusions 175 4.4.1 Potential surplus land area 175 4.4.2 Legally available and suitable area 176 4.4.3 Low-ILUC-risk bioethanol potential 177 Acknowledgements 178 References 179 Appendices 183 A4.1 Characteristics of case study region 183 A4.2 Projection agricultural production 184 A4.3 Biofuel chain design and efficiencies 185 A4.4 Estimations of under-utilized land area 187 CHAPTER 5 GHG EMISSIONS AND OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS 191 OF ILUC MITIGATION Abstract 192 5.1 Intro 193 5.2 Methods 194 5.2.1 Inputs from case study ILUC mitigation 194 5.2.2 GHG emissions 195 5.2.3 Assessment of other environmental impacts 207 5.3 Results 208 5.3.1 GHG emissions 208 5.3.2 Sensitivity analysis 211 5.3.3 Qualitative assessment of other environmental impacts 212 5.4 Discussion 214 5.4.1 Projections fertilizer and pesticide use 216 5.4.2 Land use change 216 5.5 Conclusions 217 References 219 Appendix. Qualitative assessment of other environmental impacts 223 Biodiversity 223 Water 224 Soil 225 Air 226 CHAPTER 6 COMPETING USES OF BIOMASS: ASSESSMENT AND 229 COMPARISON OF THE PERFORMANCE OF BIO-BASED HEAT, POWER, FUELS AND MATERIALS Abstract 230 6.1 Introduction 231 6.2 Methodology 232 6.2.1 Cost data standardization 233 6.2.2 Avoided GHG emissions and GHG abatement costs 234 6.2.3 Sensitivity analysis 234 6.3 Chain description 235 6.3.1 Feedstocks 236 6.3.2 Biomass logistics 236 6.3.3 Biomass pretreatment technologies 237 6.3.4 Biomass conversion technologies 238 6.4 Cost and emission data 253 6.4.1 Feedstock yields 253 6.4.2 Feedstock production costs 253 6.4.3 Pre-treatment and transportation costs 259 6.4.4 Biomass conversion costs 259 6.4.5 GHG emissions 273 6.4.6 Synthesis: selection of value chains 277 6.5 Results 281 6.5.1 Levelized costs 281 6.5.2 Avoided emissions 284 6.5.3 GHG abatement costs 287 6.5.4 Sensitivity analysis 289 6.6 Discussion 291 6.6.1 Data availability and quality 292 6.6.2 Technological learning 293 6.6.3 (I)LUC 293 6.6.4 Allocation of costs and emissions 294 6.6.5 Fossil energy price in bioenergy costs 294 6.7 Conclusions 294 Acknowledgments 297 Supplementary Material 297 References 298 CHAPTER 7 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 307 7.1 Research context 309 7.1.1 Aim and research questions 310 7.2 Summary of the results 311 7.3 Main findings and conclusions 316 7.4 Recommendations for further research and policy 330 Further research 330 Policy 332 References 334 SAMENVATTING EN CONCLUSIES 337 Context 339 Doel en onderzoeksvragen 340 Hoofdbevindingen en conclusies 341 Aanbevelingen voor toekomstig onderzoek en voor beleidsmakers 356 Toekomstig onderzoek 356 Beleid 358 Referenties 360 DANKWOORD 365 CURRICULUM VITAE 369 PUBLICATIONS 371 Abbreviations AD Anaerobic digestion LULUC Land use and land use change BTX Benzene, toluene, and xylenes LW Live weight BC Biochemical MIRAGE-BioF Modeling International BFM Bone-free meat Relationships in Applied General CBP Consolidated Bioprocessing Equilibrium for Biofuel CC Combined cycle MSW Munical solid waste CFB Circulating fluidized bed MTBE Methyl tertiary butyl ether CHP Combined heat and power MTO Methanol-to-olefins CI Conventional intensification NG Natural gas CW Carcass weight equivalent NGCC Natural gas combined cycle DG Directorate General (European NGGT Natural gas-gas turbine Commission) NOP Natural oil polyol DDGS Dried distillers grain soluble NREAP National Renewable Energy DLUC Direct Land Use Change Action Plan ECH Epichlorohydrin; NUE Nutrient use efficiency ETE Ethanol-to-ethylene O&M Operation and maintenance EU European Union ORC Organic Rankine Cycle FAME Fatty acid methyl ester PA Polyamide FAO UN Food and Agricultural PBR Photobioreactor Organisation PBT Polybutylene terephthalate FMD Foot-and-Mouth Disease PC Pulverized coal FPCM Fat and protein corrected milk PDO 1,3-propanediol equivalent PE Polyethylene FT Fischer-Tropsch PET Polyethylene terephtalate GAEZ Global Agro-Ecological Zones PFP Partial factor productivity GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and PHA Polyhydroxyalkanoates Trade PLA Polylactide GHG Greenhouse Gas PP Polypropylene GLOBIOM Global Biosphere Management PS Polystyrene Model PTT Polytrimethylene terephtalate GT Gas turbine PUR Polyurethanes GWP Global warming potential PVC Polyvinylchloride HHV Higher Heating Value RED Renewable Energy Directive (EU) HTU Hydrothermal upgrading R&D Research & Development ICE Internal combustion engine SC Steam cycle IGCC Integrated gasification