To condition or not – is that the question? An analysis of the effectiveness of ex-ante and ex-post conditionality in social cash transfer programs DISSERTATION To obtain the degree of Doctor at the Maastricht University, on the authority of the Rector Magnificus, Prof. Dr. G.P.M.F. Mols, in accordance with the decision of the Board of Deans, to be defended in public on Thursday 5 July 2012, at 16:00 hours By Esther Schüring Supervisors: Prof. Dr. Thomas Dohmen Dr. Franziska Gassmann Assessment Committee: Prof. Dr. Joan Muysken (chairman) Prof. Dr. Armando Barrientos Prof. Dr. Chris de Neubourg Dr. Stephen Devereux ISBN 978 90 8666 264 7 Published by Boekenplan, Maastricht The picture on the cover, taken by the author, depicts a scene from the allocation and conditionality experiment which was conducted in 2009 in Monze district in Zambia. Acknowledgements Looking back at the PhD years, there are many people who deserve a big thank you for their guidance, support, encouragement and love. You made this time special, helped me greatly with multi-tasking and you deserve credit for the final product! First of all, I was blessed in working with two supervisors, Franziska Gassmann and Thomas Dohmen, who provided a perfect balance between letting me realize my own ideas and granting me the necessary freedom whilst giving me the necessary support at the right time. I want to thank you for your commitment to this PhD project despite me often being thousands of kilometers away, for your valuable advice and your efforts to help me finish the dissertation before my next ‘project’ was due. Thanks Thomas for all your insights and critical feedback concerning the experiments in Zambia; you had already proved a great source of inspiration during the course you taught in the PhD program. Thanks Franziska for your critical eye and the great suggestions on the social protection front. I particularly enjoyed our feedback session in Mauritius, gazing out at the ocean and sipping fruit juices. Equally memorable are the trainings we conducted in West-Africa including the swimming sessions, joint cravings for good deserts and learning the African hip-shaking at the end. My field work in Zambia would not have been possible within the given timeframe without the support of many diligent, hard-working and committed people. Special thanks go to Rose Mutupo and her team in the Department of Social Welfare in Lusaka, to Manzunzo Zulu and his team in the Department of Social Welfare in Monze and to Emily Ngandu at the Faculty of Humanities at the University of Zambia for their great help in facilitating research activities. After working for 3 years as an adviser in your Ministry, it was a real pleasure to have you as my advisers this time and to benefit from your knowledge and networks. The field work greatly benefited from the support of Gelson Tembo at the Department of Agricultural Economics of the University of Zambia whose contributions and suggestions in the field proved highly valuable. A big thank you also goes to Twaambo for her excellent research assistance throughout the entire project. I will certainly remember the creative dinners, the exhausting field work, sorting plastic cups and questionnaires by candlelight in the middle of the night and all the good conversations we had. There are of course more people who contributed to the success of the field work. I want to express my sincere gratitude to the field team in Monze and the team in Lusaka for their hard work and dedication. You all worked long days and did an excellent job in conducting the experiments and surveys. And what could a researcher do without all the interview partners and respondents who volunteer to give their time and all the enriching information? I cannot thank you enough and hope that this research will live up to the promise of making a small contribution to policy changes that have a positive impact on your life. i The field work was extensive and would have exceeded my research budget. I therefore sincerely thank the German Kiel institute for the World Economy (www.pegnet.ifw- kiel.de), the Ministry of Community Development, Mother and Child Health (former MCDSS) in Zambia, the UNICEF office in Zambia and the DfID funded Regional Hunger and Vulnerability Programme (www.wahenga.net) for their financial contributions to this dissertation. Thank you for allowing me to experiment with a new methodology and to use a mixed method approach, which definitely shaped the character of this dissertation. The dissertation also greatly benefitted from thought-provoking questions and comments from Cécile Cherrier, Nicholas Freeland, Jessica Hagen Zanker, Gabriele Köhler, Julie Lawson-McDowall, Keetie Roelen and Michael Samson. Particular thanks to Keetie for your 24/7 advice service, for the many helpful exchanges and just for being one of my “Himmelschwestern.” Particular thanks also to my dear friend Julie who volunteered to do a final proof-read despite a really busy schedule managing work and family (now I know what it means!). Marte, many thanks for adding an artistic touch to the cover. I am also really grateful to have met so many interesting and fun people at Maastricht. Despite my move to Munich, we managed to stay in touch and it was always a great pleasure to come back to the School. Thanks to Flo and Melissa for offering me a home away from home. You made my stays in Maastricht very special. Thanks to Floor for the nice coffee & lunch breaks and all the wonderful baby advice. Thanks, Julie, Cheng and Margaret for all the special moments, for cracking jokes and jointly fighting our way through courses and research. Aziz, thanks for accompanying me throughout my PhD, sharing worries but also many special moments such as the arrival of our daughters. Thanks to Sachin for all the stimulating conversations and the encouragement. Thanks Sepideh for coming into my life at a later stage during the PhD program. Thanks Mahmut for being my Maastricht connection in Munich. Thanks to Judith, the Oxanas, Metka and Maha for many interesting conversations. Thanks to Alan, Nevena, Kristine and Mulyadi for being great office-mates. Thanks to Nyasha and Dorcas for timing your research in a way that we could all be in Zambia at the same time. Thanks to Mindel for always finding a creative solution. Thanks to my cohort in general for a great time and to the school and its staff for all the support. Last but not least möchte ich mich ganz herzlich bei meiner Familie bedanken. Antonia, Du warst die beste Motivation, die Dissertation zeitnah einzureichen. Ich kann Dir gar nicht sagen wie glücklich ich bin, dass Du in unser Leben getreten bist und wie erleichtert, dass mein anderes „Baby“, die Diss, doch noch fertig geworden ist. Mein lieber Andreas, ich danke dir für deine Unterstützung, deine Liebe und dein Verständnis für die ein oder andere lange Nacht hinter dem Computer. Ohne Dich hätte ich so manche Hürde (ich sage nur Dateneingabe in Sambia) nicht so gut gemeistert und ohne Dich wäre mein Leben sicherlich nur halb so schön. Ich bin froh, dass es Dich gibt. Meine lieben Eltern und Tobi, ohne Euch stände ich nicht dort, wo ich heute ii stehe. Ihr habt mir immer Türen und Tore geöffnet, ihr wart mein Anker, auch in stürmischen Zeiten, und habt sicherlich einen großen Anteil daran, dass ich heute meine Dissertation in den Händen halte. Ich danke Euch für Eure Anteilnahme, Unterstützung und den Glauben an mich; ich hätte mir keine bessere Familie wünschen können. iii Table of contents CHAPTER 1: Introduction .................................................................................... 1 1.1 Social cash transfers.............................................................................................. 3 1.2 Why focus on conditionality? ............................................................................... 4 1.3 Why focus on targeting? ....................................................................................... 5 1.4 The case of Zambia ............................................................................................... 6 1.5 Data & methodology ............................................................................................. 8 1.6 Outline & main findings ..................................................................................... 10 CHAPTER 2: Conditions, conditionality, conditionalities, responsibilities – finding common ground .............................................................. 13 2.1 Introduction......................................................................................................... 13 2.2 The concept of conditionality ............................................................................. 14 2.2.1 Definition of conditionality ........................................................................... 14 2.2.2 Dimensions of conditionality ........................................................................ 15 2.2.3 Conditionality in practice .............................................................................. 18 2.3 Rationale behind conditionality .......................................................................... 19 2.3.1 Economic superiority of unconditional cash transfers .................................. 20 2.3.2 Private welfare gains ..................................................................................... 23 2.3.3 Societal welfare gains.................................................................................... 26 2.3.4 Political-economy arguments