MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND SCIENCE OF UKRAINE ODESA MECHNІKOV NATIONAL UNIVERSITY BLACK SEA REGION IN WORLD POLICY: ACTORS, FACTORS, AND SCENARIOS OF THE FUTURE MONOGRAPH Editors Olga Brusylovska, Volodymyr Dubovyk, and Igor Koval ODESA ONU 2020 Brusylovska, Olga, Dubovyk, Volodymyr, and Koval, Igor (eds.), Black Sea Region in World Policy: Actors, Factors, and Scenarios of the Future (Odesa: Odesa Mechnikov National University Press, 2020. – 168 p.). Odesa Mechnikov National University Press is a department of the Odesa Mechnikov National University. Odesa Mechnikov National University Dvoryanska, 2 65082 Odesa Tel: +38/048/723-52-54 Fax: +38/048/723-35-15 Email: [email protected] http://onu.edu.ua/en/ Published in Ukraine by Odesa Mechnikov National University Press Elisavetynska, 12, Odesa, 65082. Published with support by Fulbright Ukraine Proofread by Valeriia Lozova All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Odesa Mechnikov National University. You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer. ISBN 978-617-689-406-3 © Odesa Mechnikov National University ISBN 978-617-689-407-0 Press 2020 DOI 10.18524/978-617-689-406-3 TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE ................................................................................................... 4 (Igor Koval) CHAPTER 1. STRUCTURAL REALISM VS CONSTRUCTIVISM? MODERN SCIENTIFIC APPROACHES TO THE STUDY OF THE BLACK SEA REGION ................................................................. 6 (Olga Brusylovska) CHAPTER 2. TURKEY’S POLICY IN THE BLACK SEA REGION: THE BALANCE OF POWERS, THREATS AND INTERESTS ............. 27 (Yevgeniya Gaber) CHAPTER 3. ANNEXATION OF CRIMEA: LEGAL AND SECURITY PERTURBATIONS ..................................................... 46 (Sergii Glebov) СHAPTER 4. THE RUSSIAN BLACK SEA FLEET: IS THERE A PLACE FOR STRATEGIC DIMENSION? ........................................... 67 (Polina Sinovets) CHAPTER 5. THE EU’S POLICY TOWARDS THE BLACK SEA REGION: CLASH OF INTERESTS, RESPONSIBILITY AND THREATS ........................................................................................ 80 (Iryna Maksymenko) СHAPTER 6. NATO IN THE BLACK SEA: TRANSFORMATION OF APPROACHES AND TAILORED PRESENCE ................................. 96 (Hanna Shelest) CHAPTER 7. FEATURES OF THE MODERN APPROACH OF CHINA TO THE BLACK SEA REGION COUNTRIES ................... 112 (Olga Brusylovska) CHAPTER 8. THE STATES OF THE BLACK SEA REGION IN JAPAN’S FOREIGN POLICY: HISTORY AND MODERNITY ........... 136 (Violetta Udovik) CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................... 158 (Igor Koval) ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS ......................................................... 164 PREFACE Political, economic and cultural borders are usually different from ge- ographical ones; this also applies to the Black Sea region. Only six countries border the Black Sea: Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Georgia and Tur- key. But the Charter of the Organization of Black Sea Cooperation (BSEC) was also signed by Albania, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Greece. Mol- dova can be geographically considered a part of the Black Sea region, as it is located between Ukraine and Romania and is close to the Black Sea. Greece is close to the mouth of the Bosporus, which connects the Black and Medi- terranean Seas. Armenia does not border the Black Sea, but is located near it. Two other countries are located on the shores of other seas connected to the Black Sea by many waterways: Azerbaijan (via the Caspian) and Albania (via the Adriatic). Therefore, the definition of the Black Sea is based on the signing of the BSEC, which laid the foundation for modern economic and political relations between 11 countries in the region. However, the relevance of this monograph is primarily due to the fact that the BSEC has not become the main field of interaction for the Black Sea states. On the contrary, its current state can be bluntly described as “coma- tose”. Therefore, this collective monograph is devoted, firstly, to identifying the behaviour of the main systemic and non-systemic actors that determine the development of the regional system of the Black Sea region, and, second- ly, to identify factors that affect these actors in order to predict their behaviour in the medium term. The purpose of the monograph is to identify the causes of the decline of the Black Sea regional system. The research dilemma can be formulated as follows: to what extent is this decline the result of the actions of the two regional leaders, Turkey and the Russian Federation, and to what extent is it due to non-systemic actors? Among the tasks is the identification of mod- ern theoretical approaches that most adequately help to build a study of the dynamics of the Black Sea region. Also included in these tasks is the the identification of the following features: a) the policy of Turkey and Russia as regional leaders of the Black Sea region, b) the policies of the EU and NATO as the most influential international organizations, and c) the policies of China and Japan as non-systemic actors whose influence on the Black Sea is constantly growing. The concepts of systemic and non-systemic actors are critically impor- tant for this monograph. Therefore, a systematic approach was chosen for the study, which in turn provided an opportunity to: 1) consider the object under study (the Black Sea) as a complex system of input and output signals, 2) to 4 establish the connection of the system with its environment (world politics, which is manifested in the politics of major world actors), and to 3) specify the object of study (the Black Sea) as a system that is limited by internally de- fined relationships between elements. A systematic approach to the phenom- enon includes the analysis of: 1) the elements that make up the system, 2) the patterns of the origin and development of the phenomenon, 3) its evolution, 4) the reasons for the changes, and 5) the essence and laws of its develop- ment. The application of the systems approach first enabled the division of the Black Sea into a number of subsystems (including lower level systems, such as regional leaders, EU newcomers, New Eastern Europe, and the South Caucasus), and then allowed for an analysis of the harmonization of each subsystem within the overall purpose of the system. It further allowed for a final construction of a systemic hierarchy, and the hierarchy of factors which make up this system and contribute to its functioning. A prominent place in the study is given to the study of direct and feedback relations of the Black Sea with the EU, NATO, China and Japan, which constitute the environment of the regional system under study. Additional research methods were chosen, namely the prognostic meth- od and the case study method; the selection of these methods provides for an opportunity not only to investigate individual cases, but also to apply the ac- quired knowledge in further scientific research on other cases. Scenario con- struction is a means of forecasting, which is used to predict the development of political events. This establishes a logical sequence of events, based on an existing or given situation. The scenarios focus on the connections between events and on the critical points where the effects can actually have an impact on the situation. Therefore, a study of the Black Sea’s place in world politics would be incomplete without trying to provide potential scenarios for the coming decades. The monograph focuses on the various developing relations in the Black Sea region, which over the years have been researched by the staff of the De- partment of International Relations of the Odesa I. I. Mechnikov National University. Accordingly, the work is structurally divided into eight sections, each of which covers a separate area of the​​ foreign policy of international and national actors. The work is designed for everyone who is interested in foreign policy and international relations – from students to experts. 5 CHAPTER 1 STRUCTURAL REALISM VS CONSTRUCTIVISM? MODERN SCIENTIFIC APPROACHES TO THE STUDY OF THE BLACK SEA REGION (Olga Brusylovska) Liberalism is a many-headed creature (Jorgensen, 2010, p. 57) Structures never tell us all that we want to know. Instead they tell us a small number of big and important things (Waltz, 1979, p. 72) Introduction The Black Sea region is a specific established structure in which the main actors are states (big and small) and supranational forces (EU, NATO, BSEC, etc.). In this view, it is not surprising that structural realism was cho- sen to study the Black Sea Region (BSR). However, this section also exam- ines the liberal tradition of the study of international relations (IR), namely constructivism. This is due to certain gaps in structuralism that need to be supplemented by alternative theory. Neorealists claim that great powers pay close attention to the balance of power and competition among themselves in order to gain power at the expense of others or at least not to lose their power/authority. They do so because the anarchic structure of the international system leaves them little choice if they want to survive. These competitions for power create a danger- ous world in which great powers fight each other. Concentration on big states prompts a researcher that the provisions of structuralist theory