Call them generation four-and-a-half—not fifth generation, but getting closer. By John A. Tirpak, Senior Editor Foreign Fighters Get Better OREIGN air forces will be shrink- Check Six: The Air Force has long ing during the next two decades, enjoyed unquestioned dominance in but the aircraft they deploy will fighters, but new foreign aircraft entering production are faster, be more sophisticated than those longer ranged, have better avionics, they currently possess. They will and even exhibit a degree of stealth. Fpose a greater potential danger to US airpower than has been the case since the end of the Cold War, in the view of intelligence experts and in- dustry analysts. Within 25 years, notes one inter- nal Air Force briefing paper, most of the world’s air forces will decline in size by 20 to 30 percent. Savings reaped from the retirement of the older aircraft types and reductions in force structure will generally be applied to buying newer, more ca- pable platforms. USAF analysts expect to see dur- ing this period a sharp global rise in the number of fourth-generation fighters. These aircraft, comparable to Air Force F-15s and F-16s and Navy F-18s, are highly maneuver- able and have advanced radars and Beyond-Visual-Range missiles. Al- ready, some 2,500 such fighters— MiG-29s, Mirage 2000s, Tornados, and the like—can be found in active service in about 40 countries, ac- Staff photo by Guy Aceto cording to the Air Force. A like num- 30 31 Call them generation four-and-a-half—not fifth generation, but getting closer. By John A. Tirpak, Senior Editor Foreign Fighters Get Better OREIGN air forces will be shrink- Check Six: The Air Force has long ing during the next two decades, enjoyed unquestioned dominance in but the aircraft they deploy will fighters, but new foreign aircraft entering production are faster, be more sophisticated than those longer ranged, have better avionics, they currently possess. They will and even exhibit a degree of stealth. Fpose a greater potential danger to US airpower than has been the case since the end of the Cold War, in the view of intelligence experts and in- dustry analysts. Within 25 years, notes one inter- nal Air Force briefing paper, most of the world’s air forces will decline in size by 20 to 30 percent. Savings reaped from the retirement of the older aircraft types and reductions in force structure will generally be applied to buying newer, more ca- pable platforms. USAF analysts expect to see dur- ing this period a sharp global rise in the number of fourth-generation fighters. These aircraft, comparable to Air Force F-15s and F-16s and Navy F-18s, are highly maneuver- able and have advanced radars and Beyond-Visual-Range missiles. Al- ready, some 2,500 such fighters— MiG-29s, Mirage 2000s, Tornados, and the like—can be found in active service in about 40 countries, ac- Staff photo by Guy Aceto cording to the Air Force. A like num- 30 31 problem, as they can equip older, less advanced aircraft. In large num- bers, they could pose a serious prob- lem to US aircraft. “Many countries will focus on modifying and upgrading versions of proven airframes to accommo- date [a] newer generation of air- launched weapons,” the Air Force said. These advanced missiles “will be characterized by increased range through ramjet propulsion, more so- phisticated motors, helmet-mounted cuing systems, improved seekers, ... and improved counter-countermea- sures.” Newer missiles, like the Ad- vanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile, will have active-radar seek- ers, which will allow the pilot to fire, turn around, and run without Two of the most lethal fighters now for sale are the French Rafale (here) and giving any further guidance to the multinational Eurofighter Typhoon (below). Both are superior to the F-15 in missile. many respects and could end up in unfriendly hands. Air Force officers say the F-22 ber of US–built fighters are in ser- vice in about 25 countries. Swarms These numbers have become im- portant because US defense strategy calls for the Air Force to fight its wars in the enemy’s airspace. It takes time to deploy fighters in large num- bers, and the initial squadrons sent to a crisis zone may be outnumbered in the air by a factor of 20. Facing such swarms, and flying against a new generation of advanced, double- digit surface-to-air missiles, Air Force fighters will have to be not merely superior but far superior to prevail in the early days of a future conflict. Even more worrisome than gen- eration four fighters are the aircraft coming just behind. These “fourth- and-a-half” generation aircraft, a and the ability to engage multiple will be the only “true” fifth-genera- quartet of new foreign fighter de- targets at once, along with more ca- tion fighter to enter active service signs now entering production, are pable and jam-resistant weapons. during the next 20 years. It was de- considered significantly more pow- “Advances in sensor technologies signed to defeat Soviet–built Su-27 erful than most of the top aircraft in ... provide the enemy with a ‘first- and MiG-29 fighters, which began the US inventory. look’ advantage over US pilots,” said entering service in the 1980s. Out- The four are Eurofighter’s Ty- the Air Force paper, which referred side of the United States, only Rus- phoon, Dassault’s Rafale, SAAB’s to airmen flying in current-genera- sia and China have said they are at Gripen, and Sukhoi’s Su-35/37. They tion F-15s, F-16s, and F-18s. “Ad- work on development of a true fifth- feature, in a limited but real way, vances in fire control provide the generation fighter. They are not likely some of the characteristics of the Air enemy with a ‘first-shot’ and launch- to enter service any time soon. Force’s—and the world’s—only fifth- and-leave capability. Enemy first- generation fighter, the F-22 Raptor. look and first-shot capabilities will Fighters of the East These traits are supersonic cruise with- put US pilots at a deadly disadvan- Meanwhile, the greatest challenge out afterburner, sensor fusion, ex- tage.” to USAF in the first quarter of the treme maneuverability, and stealth. Intelligence analysts stressed that 21st century probably will come from They will have longer range, better new missiles equipping emerging Russian–built fighter aircraft, chiefly situational awareness for the pilot, threat fighters pose just as deadly a due to their large numbers. The ma- 32 AIR FORCE Magazine / October 2001 jority of those fighters won’t even be in Russia but rather in the air forces of other nations seeking an inexpensive way to provide some counter to US airpower. Russia has had great success mar- keting its front-line fighters—the Su- Photo by Katsuhiko Tokunaga 27 Flanker and its derivatives—to neighboring countries, most notably China and India. Although the trans- fers so far have been mainly of Russia’s most basic Flanker, which is equivalent in capability to the Air Force F-15A of 20 years ago, both countries have struck deals for more- advanced variants that in many key aspects exceed the capabilities of the 1990s–vintage F-15C in service today. Within a decade, reported a highly placed Pentagon intelligence analyst, The JAS-39 Gripen is Sweden’s 21st century fighter. Small and agile, it’s easy “There may be more Flankers in ser- to fix in the field, has advanced avionics, some stealth, and multirole capabil- vice outside Russia than Russia will ity. South Africa will be the first export customer. be able to put in the air itself.” And Su-27 variants sold abroad may be Israel, which are providing the head- factory workers would be on over- more sophisticated than the ones up display and electronic warfare time fulfilling the deal as quickly as Russia can afford for its own use, he suite, respectively. possible. added. China already has deployed sev- The parts for these aircraft will be Russia is selling Flankers for about eral squadrons of Su-27s. Beijing made in Russia, but the aircraft will $20 million to $30 million apiece; plans to acquire an additional 200, at be assembled in China. Russia will that is less than half the cost of a new least. Two years ago, China ordered hold back some key elements of the F-15 fighter. Third-party avionics 40 Su-30s—a ground attack variant technology, and so the Chinese air- enhancements add up to $8 million of the Flanker similar in concept to craft at least will have to return to to the cost of each Russian aircraft. the F-15E. Total cost: some $1.8 Russia for periodic overhauls. China Both China and India will produce billion. In July, as an adjunct to a is not allowed to re-export any of the Flanker variants under license, and new 10-year “friendship pact” be- aircraft that it builds. both will enhance the aircraft with tween Moscow and Beijing, China India has a similar deal to build some indigenous and imported avi- placed a new order for about 40 more the Su-30 under license. onics. India’s avionics enhancements Su-30s, at a cost of $2 billion. Rus- will come primarily from France and sian press reports said the Sukhoi Eagle Equal According to Air Force intelli- gence analysts, the Flanker family is equal to the F-15C in maneuverabil- ity, radar detection range, and vis- ibility on radar.