Exploring adaptive responses in dryland cropping systems to increase robustness to climate change. Samantha Doudle1, Peter Hayman2, Nigel Wilhelm2, Bronya Alexander2, Andy Bates3, Ed Hunt3, Bruce Heddle4, Andrew Polkinghorne3, Brenton Lynch3, Mark Stanley5, Alison Frischke1, Naomi Scholz1, Barry Mudge6 1 SARDI, Minnipa Agricultural Centre, 2SARDI, Waite Agricultural Institute, 3Eyre Peninsula Agricultural Consultant, 4Eyre Peninsula Agricultural Research Foundation, 5 Eyre Peninsula Natural Resources Management Board, 6Rural Solutions SA, Jamestown Funded by the Department of Climate Change Project # 0711Doudle Department of Climate Change, Comprehensive Project Report 1. Table of Contents Page No Title Page 1. Table of Contents 2 2. Abstract 3 3. Introduction 5 4. Materials and Methods 7 A. Develop a descriptive climate change adaptation framework for upper EP low rainfall farming systems 7 B. Apply the framework to current farming systems 8 C. Apply the framework to a farming system under climate change 8 D. Use framework for gap analysis 8 5. Results 13 Q1: What are the common characteristics of the robust businesses examined? 13 Q2: What are their important key strengths and associated management strategies? 15 Q3: What are the important vulnerabilities and associated management? 18 SARDI Climate Applications Unit Yield Simulation Analysis of Low Rainfall Areas 18 6. Discussion 21 Q1: What are the common characteristics of robust businesses examined? 21 Q2: What are their important key strengths and associated management strategies? 21 Q3: What are their important vulnerabilities and associated management? 22 Q4: How can their current strengths be maintained or further strengthened and how can the vulnerabilities be minimised in the future? 22 7. Conclusions 24 Feedback from project team 25 8. Communication of key findings 29 9. Acknowledgements 29 10. References 29 11. Appendix 30 1. Climate Analysis for Case Studies 30 2. The challenge of understanding recent rainfall 98 3. Summary of farming systems framework analysis, excel version 100 2 2. Abstract There has long been a debate about the viability of grain farming on the upper Eyre Peninsula (EP), indeed this discussion can be traced back to Goyder who in the late 1860’s delineated a line of reliable cropping that runs through the low rainfall regions in South Australia and traces across the upper EP. Climate change with projections of a warming and drying trend reinvigorates this debate. The Eyre Peninsula Agricultural Research Foundation (EPARF) and SARDI’s Minnipa Agricultural Centre and Climate Applications Unit have collaborated with a small group of farming systems consultants on a project funded by the Department of Climate Change, to assess how the challenging conditions of the past five years compare to the various climate change scenarios for the lower rainfall areas of Eyre Peninsula and the upper North of SA. Case studies were then conducted by the consultants on eleven robust farming businesses who have maintained their strength despite the recent run of poor seasons. The basic premise of this project was that many features of resilience to climate change in coming decades (up to 2030) could be understood from current resilience. However, it is accepted that the projected changes for 2070 include a future that may present challenges not previously met and that there may be more dramatic shifts in climate in the coming decades than what is suggested by the global climate models. Climate change projections from (Suppiah 2006, BoM and CSIRO 2007) indicate high confidence that Eyre Peninsula will be 0.6 to 1.5 degrees warmer by 2030 and that while there is less confidence in rainfall projections, the most likely annual rainfall decline by 2030 is about 5%, with a 1 in 10 chance that it will be 10% drier. For most locations assessed in this project the mean of the last 5 years is about 20% below the mean of the 1980 to 1999 period. Although 5 years is a short period it was considered a guide for evaluating farming systems. The project identified the characteristics of these eleven robust businesses, the strengths and vulnerabilities and the most important requirements for the future to build on the strengths and minimize the vulnerabilities. The range of businesses assessed in this study were diverse in terms of location (from Ceduna in the north- west to Tumby Bay in the south-east of Eyre Peninsula and Pt Germein in the upper North of SA), land zone (calcareous sands and red soils, siliceous sands and deep soils over clay), annual rainfall (300 – 375 mm), agronomic practice (60 -100% cropping), property size (1,500 – 4,570 ha) and many other factors. Not all businesses have come from a strong background, but all have managed to maintain their business strength over the past five very challenging seasons. From this study, there is no one recipe to achieve or maintain strength in terms of agricultural practices across these diverse circumstances; however there were some common business management features and personal characteristics: o They aim to improve their business but in a measured and conservative way. An important business goal is to achieve high equity and to recover that high equity after major expansions or investments. o They are often not the earliest adopters of new technology. When they do adopt they do it well and consolidate before moving on to the next thing. o They are keen to learn (often not formally educated), are organised and allocate time to planning and reviewing. o They recognise they are not experts in every aspect of their business and consult with others for these skills. These characteristics are not rocket science and should be achievable for many businesses. This project team believes that the research, development and extension (RDE) requirements for robust and sustainable businesses in the future under potential climate change impacts should build on what we know is required for low rainfall businesses to better manage short term variability: o An improved ability to identify and analyse potential enterprise costs, benefits and risks. o The flexibility to change the system in response to market and season to develop lower risk, responsive farming systems - including range of crop types, enterprise mixes, input types and levels. o The need to maintain networks and relevant information flow to provide short term support, community confidence and balance to sensational climate change headlines. 3 Given the similarity between short and longer term RDE requirements, increased investment in low rainfall agricultural RDE now is also a solid investment for the future under climate change. Figure 1: The Eyre Peninsula Agricultural Research Foundation Board, 2008. Left to right, back: Dot Brace (SARDI, EPARF Executive Officer, farmer Poochera), Matt Dunn (farmer Tuckey), Andy Bates (consultant, Streaky Bay), Mike Keller (University of Adelaide), Peter Kuhlmann (EPARF Chairman, SAGIT Chairman, farmer Mudamuckla), Samantha Doudle (SARDI, Leader Minnipa Agricultural Centre), Geoff Thomas (Thomas Project Services), Craig James (farmer Cleve, ABB Ltd), Bruce Heddle (vice Chairman EPARF, farmer Minnipa). Front row: Brent Cronin (farmer Chandada), Dean Willmott (farmer Koongawa), Jim Egan (SARDI Pt Lincoln). Absent: Professor Simon Maddocks (Chief, SARDI Livestock & Farming Systems Division). 4 3. Introduction Project Aim: To explore options that increase the ability of dryland farming systems to respond to climate change through building on key strengths and reducing vulnerabilities, with an initial focus on South Australia’s upper Eyre Peninsula. There has long been a debate about the viability of grain farming on the upper Eyre Peninsula (EP), indeed this discussion can be traced back to Goyder who in the late 1860’s delineated a line of reliable cropping that runs through the low rainfall regions in South Australia (and traces across the upper EP, Figure 2). This map also has grain enterprises overlaid which shows the considerable number of enterprises close to or north of Goyder’s line. Climate change with projections of a warming and drying trend reinvigorates this debate. For example, a key recommendation in the ABARE December 2007 report on the impact of climate change was for policies that encourage adjustment in vulnerable sectors in agriculture, including already marginal farming enterprises. Figure 2: Goyder's Line from space, 2006 SPOT Vegetation September 21, 2006 image (SPOT Vegetation Programme CNES-VITO, http://free.vgt.vito.be/) Landcover 2003 & Goyder’s Line (SA, Department of Water, Land and Biodiversity Conservation (DWLBC). Information Management Group) 227.2 is the annual rainfall for 2006 at Orroroo Climate change predictions for upper EP have a high confidence in warming and lower confidence but consistent projections on drying. The CSIRO report prepared for SA government (Suppiah et al 2006) and the Climate Change in Australia report (BoM and CSIRO 2007) indicate the following: 1. There is high confidence that Eyre Peninsula will be 0.6 to 1.5 degrees warmer by 2030 and that at 2030 most of the uncertainty is due to different global climate models rather than different emission scenarios. 2. The most likely rainfall decline by 2030 is about 5% with a 1 in 10 chance that it will be 10% drier and a 1 in 10 chance that it will be 2% to 5% wetter. 3. The projections for 2050 and 2070 show a very hot future, especially under high emission scenarios and a wide range of rainfall futures, but the median or best estimate