City University of New York (CUNY) CUNY Academic Works Dissertations and Theses City College of New York 2015 Consequence Management: Evaluating and Developing International Responses to Nuclear and Radiological Disasters Timothy Taylor CUNY City College How does access to this work benefit ou?y Let us know! More information about this work at: https://academicworks.cuny.edu/cc_etds_theses/365 Discover additional works at: https://academicworks.cuny.edu This work is made publicly available by the City University of New York (CUNY). Contact: [email protected] Consequence Management: Evaluating and Developing International Responses to Nuclear and Radiological Disasters By Timothy Taylor May 2015 Master’s Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of International Relations (MA) at the City College of New York Advisor: Jean Krasno, PhD 1 Acknowledgments This research could not have happened without the inspiration and help of so many people. First and foremost, I want to acknowledge my academic and thesis advisor, Dr. Jean Krasno, for being a driving force for this research, as well as for my academic and professional success. Her level of knowledge and expertise within the field of International Relations is only surpassed by her love and compassion for others, especially those whom she inspires through her teaching. I would also like to acknowledge Dr. Barry J. Balleck for pushing me as an undergraduate student to pursue research and a graduate degree. Dr. Balleck helped me to hone my research and writing skills in International Studies, and to analyze critical global issues as a policy-maker. I will always value my friendship with him and the Balleck family. None of my research would be possible if it were not for the moral and financial support of family and friends. I would like to acknowledge my parents, Tim and Charlene Taylor, and express my gratitude for their lifetime of love and support. To my friends, Tony DiLascio and Nathan Franks, I wish to express my sincerest thanks for their friendship and support, for believing in me, and for helping me to realize my potential. 2 Table of Contents Chapter 1 Introduction . 5 Chapter 2 Literature Review . 9 Chapter 3 The Essentials of Nuclear Technology . 20 Chapter 4 Nuclear and Radiological Disasters . 30 Chapter 5 Case Studies . 49 Chapter 6 The International Nature of Nuclear and Radiological Disasters . 62 Chapter 7 Conclusion . 67 3 Abstract This thesis examines the relationship between a state’s level of international cooperation and its ability to effectively respond to nuclear and radiological disasters. It includes an analysis of two such disasters, the 1986 reactor meltdown in Chernobyl, Ukraine, and the 2011 reactor meltdown in Fukushima, Japan. These two incidents serve as the case studies for this research, and provide evidence to suggest the relationship between international cooperation and effective responses. This thesis reviews the nuclear and radiological technologies and materials that pose the greatest risk to human populations, examines the potential consequences of such disasters, and evaluates the level of preparedness of states and relevant international organizations to respond to and mitigate the effects of such disasters. This research identifies gaps in the capacity of state and international responses to disasters, most notably, the lack of effective technologies and procedures for decontaminating non-industrial sites. This research includes an analysis of the international institutions and frameworks best suited for developing and executing effective responses to nuclear and radiological disasters, and suggest specific measures that should be included in such responses. 4 Chapter One Introduction From the creation of the first nuclear reactors to the development of advanced thermo- nuclear weapons systems, scientists and policy makers have continually developed safeguards, security procedures, and non-proliferation strategies to reduce the risk of nuclear and radiological accidents and attacks throughout the world. While the security and non- proliferation policies that have been developed over the last generation have done much to ensure the low probability of such events, policy-makers must acknowledge that accidents and attacks have and will continue to occur, given an indefinite timeline. Why is this important? It is critically important to ensure that international procedures are established to mitigate the consequences of such events. My research will underscore this importance by highlighting the environmental, economic, political, social, and cultural harms that come with such disasters, and by demonstrating how the international community can serve to mitigate these harms. Existing academic literature evaluating nuclear and radiological disasters has illustrated that the consequences of such disasters are international in nature, but that international coordination for mitigating these consequences exists in a relatively limited capacity. Some scholars believe that international cooperation will be essential in managing the consequences of future nuclear and radiological disasters – incidents which these scholars also believe to be inevitable. However, there has yet to be empirical research into whether or not there is evidence to suggest that international cooperation contributes to nuclear and radiological consequence management in any positive manner. In fact, there are some who might argue that international 5 cooperation might hinder state responses to consequence management because of the bureaucratic and decentralized nature of many international and intergovernmental organizations. This thesis seeks to determine whether or not there is a relationship between a state’s level of international cooperation and its ability to effectively respond to nuclear and radiological disasters. I argue that such increases in international cooperation are related to increases in the ability of states to effectively respond to such disasters. In this context, this thesis defines concepts for what is meant by international cooperation and the effectiveness of responses. These concepts are used as the independent and dependent variables, respectively, in this research analysis. The respective components of these variables are analyzed so that it can be determined whether or not any patterns exist between them. I also argue that there are little, or even no, international guidelines or strategies in place to effectively address nuclear or radiological disasters with respect to radioactive decontamination and a state’s long-term recovery. As a research tool, this thesis includes a comparative analysis of two states and their respective management of nuclear and radiological disasters within their borders. The methodology utilizes historical archiving, expert interviews, presentations, and the comparative analysis of the information and variables related to the two case studies. The two case studies selected include the 1986 reactor meltdown in Chernobyl, Ukraine (USSR) and the 2011 multiple reactor meltdown in Fukushima, Japan. These two case studies were selected because they are considered by nuclear industry experts to be the most serious nuclear and radiological disasters in history, being the only two nuclear incidents classified as “major disasters” on the International Nuclear Event Scale. Given that these two incidents occurred decades apart, this 6 thesis also addresses the potential impact of technological advances on the comparative effectiveness of these responses. My research will also refute two potential realist arguments: First, that nuclear consequence management is best handled at the state level; and second, that international responses would be hindered by state concerns for sovereignty. I argue that liberal theories support potential strategies for the development of nuclear consequence management at the international level. This thesis concludes with a prescriptive section which makes recommendations for nuclear and radiological consequence management strategies based upon the findings of the research. In order to present this research in an organized manner, I have arranged this thesis by a sequence of sub-topics and research questions that provide the necessary background information and context for understanding nuclear and radiological consequence management. The sub-topics and research questions are arranged as follows: · Literature Review · The Essentials of Nuclear Technology · What are nuclear and radiological disasters? · What is the difference between a nuclear disaster and a radiological disaster? · What potential nuclear and radiological disasters are most likely to threaten human populations? · What are the consequences of nuclear and radiological disasters? · Which states are prepared to deal with such disasters, and do these states correspond to the populations most at risk? · How have states dealt with nuclear and radiological disasters in the past? 7 · Case Study of the Chernobyl Reactor Meltdown · Case Study of the Fukushima Reactor Meltdown · Comparative Analysis of the Case Studies · Are nuclear and radiological disasters international in nature? · What, if any, international response mechanisms exist to mitigate the effects of nuclear and radiological disasters? · Are nuclear and radiological disasters better addressed at the international level? · What framework might be used to establish or build upon international responses to nuclear and radiological