OCS Study MMS 2005-033 ANALYSIS OF COVARIANCE OF FALL MIGRATIONS OF BOWHEAD WHALES IN RELATION TO HUMAN ACTIVITIES AND ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS, ALASKAN BEAUFORT SEA: PHASE I, 1996–1998 by and Western EcoSystems Technology Inc. for MMS Contract 1435-01-02-CT-85133 LGL Report TA2799-3 March 2007 This Phase I study was completed in March 2004. The report prepared then was updated in early 2007 to take account of MMS comments on the initial report. However, this revised 2007 report does not cite or discuss most of the related publications and reports released after March 2004. Suggested Format for Citations: Manly, B.F.J., V.D. Moulton, R.E. Elliott, G.W. Miller and W.J. Richardson. 2007. Analysis of covariance of fall migrations of bowhead whales in relation to human activities and environmental factors, Alaskan Beaufort Sea: Phase I, 1996–1998. OCS Study 2005-033; LGL Rep. TA2799-3. Rep. from LGL Ltd., King City, Ont., and WEST Inc., Cheyenne, WY, for U.S. Minerals Manage. Serv., Anchorage, AK. 128 p. OCS Study MMS 2005-033 ANALYSIS OF COVARIANCE OF FALL MIGRATIONS OF BOWHEAD WHALES IN RELATION TO HUMAN ACTIVITIES AND ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS, ALASKAN BEAUFORT SEA: PHASE I, 1996–1998 by Bryan F.J. Manly c, Valerie D. Moulton b, Robert E. Elliott a, Gary W. Miller a,d, and W. John Richardson a,e a LGL Ltd., environmental research associates 22 Fisher St., POB 280, King City, Ont. L7B 1A6 (905) 833-1244; [email protected] b LGL Ltd., environmental research associates 388 Kenmount Rd., POB 13248, Stn A, St. John’s, Nfld. A1B 4A5 (709) 754-1922; [email protected] and c Western EcoSystems Technology Inc. 2003 Central Ave., Cheyenne, WY 82001 (307) 634-1756; [email protected] LGL Report TA2799-3 March 2007 This study was funded by the U.S. Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service (MMS), Alaska Outer Continental Shelf Region, Anchorage, Alaska, under Contract Number 1435-01-02-CT-85133, as part of the MMS Alaska Environmental Studies Program. The opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Department of the Interior, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recom- mendation for use by the Federal Government. d Deceased. e Author to whom correspondence should be sent. ii Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS.............................................................................................................................iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..........................................................................................................................v INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................1 Background ........................................................................................................................................1 Approach ............................................................................................................................................2 Objectives/Hypotheses .......................................................................................................................3 Natural Factors .............................................................................................................................3 Sightability Factors.......................................................................................................................4 Human Activities..........................................................................................................................4 METHODS ...................................................................................................................................................6 Selection of Data for Phase I ..............................................................................................................6 Aerial Surveys ....................................................................................................................................7 Summary of MMS Survey Procedures.........................................................................................7 Summary of Industry/LGL Survey Procedures .........................................................................10 Summary of LGL/MMS 1998 Feeding Study Survey Procedures .............................................10 Human Activities Summary .............................................................................................................11 Seismic Surveys..........................................................................................................................11 Subsistence Hunting ...................................................................................................................12 Compilation of Data .........................................................................................................................12 Aerial Survey..............................................................................................................................12 Seismic Shotpoint Data ..............................................................................................................13 Bathymetry Data.........................................................................................................................13 Subsistence Whaling Data ..........................................................................................................13 Metadata .....................................................................................................................................13 Standardization of Data ....................................................................................................................14 Recoding of Variables ................................................................................................................14 Database Structure............................................................................................................................14 Regression Analysis and Sightings Databases............................................................................16 Sample Units...............................................................................................................................16 Extracting Spatial Covariates .....................................................................................................17 Generating Seismic Terms..........................................................................................................17 Dependent Variable ....................................................................................................................19 Predictor Variables .....................................................................................................................19 (1) Natural Variables ............................................................................................................19 (2) Sightability Variables......................................................................................................19 (3) Human Activity Variables ..............................................................................................20 Analyses ...........................................................................................................................................20 Data Excluded.............................................................................................................................20 Descriptive Statistics ..................................................................................................................21 Poisson Regression.....................................................................................................................21 Assessing Model Fit ...................................................................................................................22 Correlation..................................................................................................................................24 Maps of Model Results...............................................................................................................24 iii Table of Contents Circular (Randomization) Test for Whale Headings ..................................................................25 RESULTS ...................................................................................................................................................26 Exploratory Analyses .......................................................................................................................26 Poisson Regression...........................................................................................................................26 The Approach .............................................................................................................................26 Natural and Sightability Covariates............................................................................................29 Natural Covariates ................................................................................................................31 Sightability Covariates .........................................................................................................34 Sample Model Predictions....................................................................................................34