Contents 1. Overview 1 2. Atmospheric Observations and Services 9 3. Atmospheric and Climate Processes and Modeling 18 4. Coastal and Ocean Observation Systems, Science and Services 29 5. Ocean Technology 43 6. Polar Science and Cryosphere 49 7. Geosciences and Ocean Mineral Resources 60 8. Earth Science-Data Centres 70 9. Capacity Building and Human Resource Development 73 10. Infrastructure Development 83 11. Awareness and Outreach programmes 87 12. International Cooperation 92 13. Awards and Honours 97 14. Administrative Support 98 15. Patents and Research Papers 103 16. Perfomance Evaluation Report 130 17. Acknowledgements 137 CHAPTER 1 OVERVIEW 1.1 INTRODUCTION are largely being pursued through its centres, he Earth behaves as a single, interlinked viz. India Meteorological Department (IMD), Tand self-regulating system. Its components, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), viz. atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, geosphere National Centre for Medium Range Weather and biosphere, function together and their Forecasting (NCMRWF), National Centre for interactions are complex and significant. The Antarctica and Ocean Research (NCAOR), earth system science is a science of national National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT), importance. The scientific understanding Indian National Centre for Ocean Information of the earth system helps to improve Services (INCOIS), Centre for Marine Living prediction of climate, weather and natural Resources (CMLRE) and Integrated Coastal hazards as well as explore the polar regions and and Marine Area Management (ICMAM). sea bed and afford sustainable use of resources. This year, the Centre for Earth Science The agenda for the earth system science in the Studies (CESS), an Institute under the Kerala country includes promotion of discovery to State Government, Council of Science & provide new perspective on earth systems, Technology and Education (KSCSTE) has better understanding of earth processes and been taken over by ESSO-MoES to strengthen apply this knowledge for sustainability of the solid earth component. The National Centre Earth and develop services for the societal for Seismology has been formed to focus on benefits. earthquake research. The Earth System Science Organization By all measures, the year, 2013-14 (ESSO) was established in October 2007 with has been the most challenging, eventful and the objective to provide the nation with the best possible services for monsoons, weather, productive year for various endeavors of the climate, oceans and natural hazards. A ESSO-MoES. During the year, the country framework has been created for understanding witnessed a number of natural disasters such the complex interactions among the key as tropical cyclones like the Phailin, the Helen, elements of the Earth system, namely ocean, the Lehar, the Mahasen, the Madi and extreme atmosphere, cryosphere and solid earth. The weather events like heavy rainfall over weather and climate services cater to a variety Uttarakhand and Gujarat. The challenging task of sectors like agriculture, aviation, water of issuing weather forecasts and advisories resources, shipping, sports, etc; disasters has received an overwhelming appreciation (cyclone, earthquake, tsunami, sea level (See the BOX-1). The general improvement rise), living and non-living resources (fishery in weather and climate services in the country advisory, poly-metallic nodules, gas hydrates, has been achieved through augmentation of freshwater, etc), coastal and marine ecosystems, observational network, improvements in data climate change and underwater technology. assimilation methods, weather and climate The policies and programmes of the ESSO models and forecasting. Annual Report 2013-2014 2 • CHAPTER 1 • Overview BOX-1 On the success of weather services provided by the ESSO-MoES “Our advances in meteorology were evident during the recent cyclone in Odisha, when we received accurate forecasts of the landfall point that were more accurate than the forecasts of well known international bodies. Our decision to set up a new Ministry of Earth Sciences following the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004 and to invest in world-class tsunami forewarning systems in 2007 has been amply rewarded. We now have the ability to issue alerts within 13 minutes of a tsunami-genic event. This has established India’s scientific leadership in the Indian Ocean region. I would also like to see continuous improvement in our monsoon prediction capability through the recently launched Monsoon Mission so that we avert the kind of calamities that we saw in Uttarakhand last year. “ Dr Manmohan Singh Hon’ble Prime Minister At the Indian Science Congress, Jammu, 2014 The details of various programs are elucidated below: 1.2 ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE AND about 30% improved skill over the deterministic ServiceS forecast. In a pilot study, 72-hour forecasts of wind Global Modelling: at 50 and 100m have been generated. Preliminary The data assimilation scheme of the results show that for a wind farm located in Global Forecast System (GFS) has been Tamil Nadu, the actual power generation lies upgraded to include a new version of the within 30% of the wind power generation Community Radiative Transfer Model forecast schedule. One of the important (CRTM). The data assimilation capacity has milestones has been the implementation of been increased from 2 GB to 20 GB during the high-resolution meso-scale data assimilation year. It is now capable of assimilating new for improved operational weather forecast satellite datasets such as Metop-B, GEOS-14, services such as agro-meteorological, aviation, GEOS-15 and GPS refractivity. Probabilistic location specific/city forecasts and hydrological forecasts of quantitative precipitation from the for high-impact localized weather phenomena. 21 member Global Ensemble Forecast System Operational dynamical prediction system was (GEFS; T190L28) have been made operational used to provide global monthly and seasonal and are available on www.ncmrwf.gov.in. forecasts for rainfall and temperatures. Thus, quantitative estimates of the reliability of forecasts in various precipitation ranges are Augmentation of meteorological services: generated. The track and intensity forecasts for Currently, atmospheric observations Tropical Cyclone “Mahasen” based on GEFS such as maximum and minimum air were generated. The 72 hour forecast track temperature, wind speed and direction, errors by the probabilistic forecasts showed humidity, rainfall, cloud cover, etc. are Annual Report 2013-2014 3 • CHAPTER 2 • Overview available through weather radars, automatic The Ensemble based Meteograms weather stations, automatic rain gauges (1600 (EPSgram), which are a probabilistic platforms), etc. and satellite and aircraft based interpretation of the forecasts were generated platforms. High quality GPS based upper air for 33 major cities of India. The ten day systems have been installed at 11 stations namely EPSgrams display the time evolution of the Chennai, Hyderabad, Vishakhapatnam, distribution of several atmospheric parameters, viz. temperature and relative humidity, winds, Goa, Amini, Thiruvananthapuram, Minicoy, and six hourly accumulated rainfall. Patna, Mohanbari, Portblair, Srinagar. A roadmap was finalized for implementation Cyclone Forecast: Remarkable improvement of the Integrated Himalayan Meteorology has been achieved in the skill of forecasts for Programme to improve mountain weather cyclone track and landfall for Tropical Cyclones over the north Indian Ocean. The genesis, and climate monitoring and forecast services forecast for intensity, track and landfall and over the Himalayan region. The data from heavy rainfall, gale wind and storm surge the new INSAT-3D, launched on 26 July, associated with the tropical cyclone PHAILIN 2013 are being used to generate various new were predicted with great accuracy (See Box satellite products with improved resolution. 2). These accurate predictions helped the state Atmospheric profiles of temperature and governments to plan mitigation efforts to humidity are derived from the INSAT-3D save human life and to minimize the losses to sounder data. properties. BOX-2 On Successful Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Phailin “Warm Congratulations on the way that the recent cyclone was handled by MoES and IMD. TV and other media could be a powerful platform for keeping in touch with the people whenever such events are likely to occur. So, I was very happy to see that has now happened. I must particularly congratulate all ESSO-MoES scientists on the very professional way in which the predictions were made and constantly updated, on the quality of graphics and on the apparently effective way in which coordination with the local administrations managed.” Prof. Roddam Narasimha, F.R.S Hon Professor, Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research Bangalore Monsoon Mission: Monsoon: The monsoon variability is quite The Monsoon Mission is aimed to complex both spatially and temporally. Seasonal improve the monsoon weather and climate forecasts for monsoon rainfall are provided forecasts in the country. The Mission’s goal is to with fairly good accuracy. The prediction skill improve the skill of (i) Seasonal and Extended of active and break cycles has been improved. Range Monsoon mission has been launched to further Annual Report 2013-2014 4 • CHAPTER 1 • Overview improve, short-term, medium-range, extended 5 million farmers. The impact of this service on range and seasonal scale prediction of rainfall. GDP is ` 50,000 crores.