NAADSN Engage Series China’s Arctic Engagement Following the Polar Silk Road to Greenland and Russia Selected Articles from the Arctic Yearbook Edited by Justin Barnes, Heather Exner-Pirot, Lassi Heininen, and P. Whitney Lackenbauer CHINA’S ARCTIC ENGAGEMENT Following the Polar Silk Road to Greenland and Russia Selected Articles from the Arctic Yearbook © The authors, 2021 North American and Arctic Defence and Security Network (NAADSN) c/o School for the Study of Canada Trent University Peterborough, Ontario, Canada K9J 7B8 Arctic Yearbook c/o Arctic Portal Ráðhústorg 7 600 Akureyri, Iceland. https://arcticyearbook.com All rights reserved. LIBRARY AND ARCHIVES CANADA CATALOGUING IN PUBLICATION China’s Arctic Engagement: Following the Polar Silk Road to Greenland and Russia / Edited by Justin Barnes, Heather Exner-Pirot, Lassi Heininen, and P. Whitney Lackenbauer. (NAADSN Engage Series no. 3 / RDSNAA série d’engage no. 3) Published in print and electronic formats. ISBN: 978-1-989811-12-2 (e-book) 1. China—Arctic. 2. Arctic regions—Defence and Security. 3. Arctic regions— Greenland. 4. Arctic regions—Russia. 5. Arctic regions—Strategic aspects. I. Barnes, Justin, editor II. Exner-Pirot, Heather, editor III. Heininen, Lassi, editor IV. Lackenbauer, P. Whitney, editor V. Title: China’s Arctic Engagement: Following the Polar Silk Road to Greenland and Russia. VI. Series: NAADSN Engage Series / RDSNAA série d’engage; no. 3 Cover design: Jennifer Arthur-Lackenbauer Cover images: P. Whitney Lackenbauer Copy editor: Corah Hodgson Distributed by the North American and Arctic Defence and Security Network (NAADSN) CHINA’S ARCTIC ENGAGEMENT Following the Polar Silk Road to Greenland and Russia Selected Articles from the Arctic Yearbook Edited by Justin Barnes, Heather Exner-Pirot, Lassi Heininen, and P. Whitney Lackenbauer Table of Contents Introduction by Justin Barnes, P. Whitney Lackenbauer, Lassi Heininen, and Heather Exner-Pirot……………………………………………………. i 1. China and the Arctic by Olga Alexeeva and Frédéric Lasserre ......................... 1 2. The Drivers of Chinese Arctic Interests: Political Stability and Energy and Transportation Security by Li Xing and Rasmus Gjedssø Bertelsen ............ 15 3. China’s Arctic Policy & The Polar Silk Road Vision by Kong Soon Lim ...... 38 4. Arctic Blue Economic Corridor: China’s Role in the Development of a New Connectivity Paradigm in the North by Vasilii Erokhin, Gao Tianming, and Zhang Xiuhua ........................................................................................ 63 5. China is in the Arctic to Stay as a Great Power: How China’s Increasingly Confident, Proactive and Sophisticated Arctic Diplomacy Plays into Kingdom of Denmark Tensions by Camilla Sørensen.............................. 91 6. Chinese Mining In Greenland: Arctic Access Or Access To Minerals? by Patrik Andersson, Jesper Willaing Zeuthen, and Per Kalvig ................................ 114 7. Imagining China on Greenland’s Road to Independence by Ulrik Pram Gad, Naja Dryrendom Graugaard, Anders Holgersen, Marc Jacobsen, Nina Lave, and Nikoline Schriver ........................................................................... 136 8. The Desecuritization of Greenland’s Security? How the Greenlandic Self- Government Envisions Post-Independence National Defense and Security Policy by Rasmus Kjærgaard Rasmussen .................................................. 169 9. Intensifying U.S.-China Security Dilemma Dynamics Play Out in the Arctic: Implications for China’s Arctic Strategy by Camilla Sørensen ................ 195 10. Shipping Matters: The Role of Arctic Shipping in Shaping China’s Engagement in Arctic Resource Development by Deng Beixi ................ 217 11. China-Russia Collaboration in Shipping and Marine Engineering as One of the Key Factors of Secure Navigation Along the NSR by Gao Tianming and Vasilii Erokhin..................................................................................... 234 12. Developing Hydrocarbon Resources in Arctic Russia: The Role of Sino- Russian Collaboration by Anastasia Ufimtseva and Tahnee Prior .......... 264 Concluding Reflections by P. Whitney Lackenbauer, Justin Barnes, Heather Exner- Pirot, and Lassi Heininen ..................................................................... 276 Index .......................................................................................................... 289 China’s Arctic Engagement i Introduction Justin Barnes, P. Whitney Lackenbauer, Lassi Heininen, & Heather Exner-Pirot The rise of China and the shift to multipolarity have dominated international relations discourse over the last twenty years, prompting various regional narratives that seek to frame and understand specific Chinese intentions. China’s explosive economic growth has propelled it to look outwards to secure access to raw materials and expand global markets. The country’s growing interest in the Arctic – which is a logical extension of its need for resources, shipping routes, and scientific research, as well as a geopolitical and geostrategic consideration – has myriad implications for Arctic states, Indigenous peoples, and local communities. As an Observer to the Arctic Council, China self-identifies as a “near Arctic” state in its 2018 Arctic Policy. In this policy, China sees itself as a cooperative member of the international community and of the Arctic region in particular. It is interested in exploring potential commercial opportunities related to transportation routes and expanding “into diverse areas of Arctic affairs including the platforms of global governance, regional cooperation, and bilateral and multilateral affairs, and such disciplines as scientific research, ecological environment, climate change, economic development, and cultural exchanges.” The Arctic states’ responses to China’s growing Arctic interests and engagement in regional fora are mixed. For example, Beijing’s future designs for the region have become a staple of the burgeoning literature on Arctic security and governance over the last decade, with many of these narratives casting suspicion on China. Commentators worry that the Asian power will seek to undermine Arctic state sovereignty and co-opt regional governance mechanisms to facilitate its access to resources and new sea routes that fuel and connect its growing global empire. Although China officially states that it is committed to maintaining peace and stability in the Arctic, and that it prefers international cooperation to competition or conflict (Heininen et al. 2020, 224), some commentators caution that the country’s deeper intention ii Barnes, Lackenbauer, Heininen, and Exner-Pirot is to influence and manipulate Arctic states, peoples, and other stakeholders as they have done in other parts of the world. On the other hand, some analysts suggest that China is legitimately and understandably seeking access to resources and improving its “capability in scientific research in the Arctic... [for] a deeper understanding and knowledge of the Arctic science” (China’s Arctic Policy 2018). China has clear rights under international law to areas of the Arctic Ocean beyond national jurisdiction and is a much-needed source of foreign investment and technology to advance Arctic development. China’s grand strategy for expanding its international influence is framed by its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the country’s global infrastructure development strategy. The BRI structures China’s approach to economic integration around the world, including the Arctic, and focuses on securing Chinese access to resources and markets. Beijing’s Arctic Policy promotes that “the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road (Belt and Road Initiative), an important cooperation initiative of China, will bring opportunities for parties concerned to jointly build a ‘Polar Silk Road,’ and facilitate connectivity and sustainable economic and social development of the Arctic.” The authors in this volume illustrate how China’s approach to the Arctic reflects burgeoning Chinese influence beyond its borders in a global context. Advancing relationships with Russia and Greenland can bolster Chinese energy security and facilitate access to raw materials and emerging transportation routes. Does this portend Chinese cooperation with Arcitc states that have sovereign rights to most of these resources and claim jurisdiction over Arctic waters? Will China eventually become a challenger to the Arctic’s regional political norms? What does China’s growing influence in the region mean for the return of great power competition elsewhere in the world? Both Canada and the United States highlight the strategic significance of the Arctic in terms of state sovereignty, with the US stridently asserting the importance of deterring unwanted influence from outside actors over the last few years. Core American strategic documents describe the “re-emergence of long-term, strategic competition” as the central challenge to American security, describing China and Russia as “revisionist powers” seeking to undermine the international liberal order (Pincus 2020). Canada’s 2017 defence policy, Strong, Secure, Engaged, also observes that China and Russia are contributing to an evolving balance of power, stating that “China is a Introduction iii rising economic power with an increasing ability to project influence globally,” and that “Russia has proven its willingness to test the international security environment.” While the policy does not apply this logic directly