KUNGL. TEKNISKA HÖGSKOLAN TRITA-INFRA 03-041 Royal Institute of Technology ISSN 1651-0216 ISRN KTH/INFRA--03/041--SE DEPARTMENT OF INFRASTRUCTURE Introduction of regional high speed trains A study of the effects of the Svealand line on the travel market, travel behaviour and accessibility Oskar Fröidh Ph. D. Thesis Division of Transportation and Logistics Stockholm 2003 © 2003 Oskar Fröidh All photos: © 2003 Oskar Fröidh [email protected] Division of Transportation and Logistics Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) S-100 44 Stockholm Sweden www.infra.kth.se English translation: Ian Hutchinson (except ch. 10, appendices 1-6 and 9 by the author) Swedish title: Introduktion av regionala snabbtåg. En studie av Svealandsbanans påver- kan på resemarknaden, resbeteende och tillgänglighet. KTH TRITA-INFRA 03-040. Stockholm, 2003 ISBN 91-7323-041-3 Printed in Sweden by Universitetsservice US AB, Stockholm 2003 2 Introduction of regional high speed trains Sala Heby Morgon- gåva N The Mälaren Virsbo Uppsala valley Ransta Ramnäs Knivsta and surroundings Sura- Tillberga hammar Railways in 2002 Arlanda Märsta Hallsta- Västerås 0 10 20 30 40 km hammar Enköping Kolbäck Bålsta Dingtuna Upplands Köping Bro Väsby Frövi Valskog Kvicksund Torshälla Kungsör Strängnäs STOCK- Arboga Eskilstuna Sundbyberg HOLM Hovsta central Älvsjö Mariefred Åkers Läggesta Södertälje Örebro styckebruk Tumba Flemings- berg Nykvarn Hälleforsnäs Väster- Kumla haninge Mellösa Järna Flen Hallsberg Mölnbo Vingåker Gnesta Katrineholm Vagnhärad Nynäs- Trosa hamn The Svealand line is shown in semi-bold. This thesis is dedicated to the women and men whose time and effort have made the Svealand line a reality Next page: A high speed train to Stockholm on the Svealand line at Läggesta in 1997. Läggesta station can just be seen in the background. The Svealand line 3 Bild_lg.tif Helsida, UTFALLANDE 4 Introduction of regional high speed trains Contents Foreword 7 Summary 9 1. Introduction 19 Background 19 ● Aim 23 ● Arrangement of the thesis 25 2. Theoretical framework and literature review 27 Transportation and economy 27 ● Accessibility 38 ● Previous studies of the effects of the Svealand line 44 ● Examples of train service supply and demand in Sweden 47 ● High speed trains 55 ● Discussion and conclusion 65 ● Theory, model and hypotheses 70 3. Methods 75 Supply and demand 75 ● The field surveys 77 ● The accessibility analysis 98 4. The Svealand line’s inception and the development of the region 101 The Svealand line 101 ● Economic development during the 1990s 118 ● Popu- lation, migration and commuting 121 ● Discussion and summary 142 5. Supply and demand along the Svealand line 145 Supply 145 ● Demand 156 ● Discussion and summary 178 6. Knowledge and valuation of the supply 183 Knowledge of the supply 183 ● Valuation of the supply 197 ● Discussion and summary 224 7. Travel behaviour 231 Effects on car ownership 231 ● Effects on willingness to travel 234 ● Effects on the choice of travel mode 258 ● Effects on the choice of destination 265 ● Discussion and summary 266 8. Accessibility 273 Individual accessibility measures 273 ● Distance measures 274 ● Cumulative- opportunity measures 282 ● Utility-based measures and other Sampers results 286 ● Discussion and summary 297 9. Discussion and conclusions 303 Changes in the travel markets 303 ● Changes in knowledge and valuations 304 ● Changes in travelling behaviour 306 ● Changes in accessibility 307 ● Market – behaviour – accessibility 308 ● Summary of results and conclusions 311 ● Methodology issues 317 ● Future research 318 10. References 321 Appendices 335 The Svealand line 5 Foreword This thesis is one of the results of the research project entitled “The establishment of new train services – their effect on travel demand and social structure. The Svealand line”. The project was run from 1996 until 2002 at the Division of Transportation and Logistics of the Royal Institute of Technology, Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan (KTH), in Stockholm. A research report of the results was presented at the halfway point in 1999.1 The present thesis constitutes the concluding report of the research project. The thesis is published in English, while a corre- sponding research report is available in Swedish. My principal supervisor over the course of writing the thesis was ad- junct professor Bo-Lennart Nelldal, assisted by Karl Kottenhoff and professor Lars-Göran Mattsson. All the material in the thesis has been produced by the author, with the exception of the accessibility studies using the Sampers modelling system for forecasting travel demand where a consulting firm, Transek AB, were responsible for making the analyses. The project was principally financed by Banverket (the National Rail Administration) and the Swedish Agency for Innovation Systems (Vin- nova, previously KFB). The Swedish Institute for Transport and Com- munication Analysis (SIKA), Trafik i Mälardalen (TiM; a company jointly owned by SJ and the other local public transport authorities to cooperate on tickets), the Södermanland county administrative board, Stockholm and Södermanland county councils and the local authorities of Södertälje, Nykvarn, Strängnäs, Eskilstuna and Nyköping have also contributed with financial support for the surveys. My sincere thanks are due to all the people, who must remain anonymous, who filled in the questionnaires and participated in com- puter-based interviews in the surveys, without whom the thesis would not have been possible. My thanks also to all my contacts at the local authorities and others who have helped me by freely giving of their information and knowledge and making comments on the thesis. Finally, I would also like to thank Bolle, Kalle and Lars-Göran for their help as supervisors over the course of the project, which proved invaluable for teaching an engineer to be a researcher. Stockholm, February 2003 Oskar Fröidh 1 Fröidh (1999) The Svealand line 7 Sala Heby Morgon- gåva N The Mälaren Virsbo Uppsala valley Ransta Ramnäs Knivsta and surroundings Sura- Tillberga hammar Railways in 2002 Arlanda Märsta Hallsta- Västerås 0 10 20 30 40 km hammar Enköping Kolbäck Bålsta Dingtuna Upplands Köping Bro Väsby Frövi Valskog Kvicksund Torshälla Kungsör Strängnäs STOCK- Arboga Eskilstuna Sundbyberg HOLM Hovsta central Älvsjö Mariefred Åkers Läggesta Södertälje Örebro styckebruk Tumba Flemings- berg Nykvarn Hälleforsnäs Väster- Kumla haninge Mellösa Järna Flen Hallsberg Mölnbo Vingåker Gnesta Katrineholm Vagnhärad Nynäs- Trosa hamn The Svealand line (shown in semi-bold) opened in 1997 and has led to a marked increase in travelling by public transport. Summary Introduction and methodology Background The Svealand line was opened in 1997 and replaced an older, less ade- quate line. It consists of a newly built, and for the most part single-track, line from Södertälje to Eskilstuna (79 km), and a modernised stretch from Eskilstuna west to Valskog (35 km). Trains can thus continue to- wards Örebro and Hallsberg. From 2000 on trains also run north of Stockholm, via Arlanda airport to Uppsala. Together with other infra- structure investments in the Stockholm area, this means that regional high speed trains can cover the distance between Eskilstuna and Stock- holm (115 km) in just an hour, making five stops along the way. Considerable sums have been invested in improvements to the Swedish rail network since the 1990s. In the Mälaren valley in particular several new lines have been built or older lines modernised to cope with speeds of up to 200 km/h. The main aims were to facilitate daily com- muting so that the people living in the region can live and work in dif- ferent places, thus evening out imbalances in the housing and labour markets, and to spread the economic growth from Greater Stockholm The Svealand line 9 to the surrounding area through improved accessibility. Such invest- ments in regional high speed trains to achieve these ends are very rare in an international perspective. Aim The market effects of the introduction of the regional high speed trains on the Svealand line have been studied in a case study in a research pro- ject run at the Royal Institute of Technology, Kungliga Tekniska Hög- skolan (KTH), in Stockholm from 1996 to 2002. The aim of the research project was to find general market effects arising from the improved market supply, i.e. the connection between a radically improved supply of train services on the one hand and travel demand and accessibility on the other. The general market effects that can be expected to occur can be used as indicators that changes in the social structure will become apparent in the long term. The knowledge will be able to be used to improve and further develop various models for transportation and social structure, may be used in drawing up the decision-making bases for other infrastructure investments that may be considered in the future, and to identify areas where further research would improve the basic information underlying social planning, and contribute to a better understanding of the problem. Theory and model Underpinning the analyses are theories and models of the effects of infrastructure investments on regional economic development, and the linkage between traffic and social structure. The effects occur over vary- ing lengths of time, and the effects of traffic are generally seen more quickly than the effects on the social structure. Through the mutual interaction between traffic and social structure the effects of a radical change in supply will be observed in a change in demand over a pro- longed period of time, until a new theoretical equilibrium emerges. Methodology The research project was carried out as a before and after-study (ex ante, ex post) of the supply and its influence on demand and accessibility. The study included quantitative field surveys with questionnaires sent by post to people living along the line, and interviews with public transport users with the aid of portable computers on the buses and trains along the stretch in question. Both the Stated Preferences (SP) and Revealed Preferences (RP) methods were used in the interviews to study individu- als’ knowledge and valuation of the supply and travelling behaviour.