The Maize Forum 20 November 2020 Nico Hawkins General Manager White Maize White Maize: Supply & Demand (National vs. International) (Marketing season) SAGIS NAMC International (USDA) May - Apr Sep - Aug White Maize Final Projection Estimate Projection 2019/20 2020/21 2019/20 2020/21 '000t '000t Mt Mt Opening stocks 1 799.0 473.9 Producer Deliveries 5 442.5 8 476.3 Not Not Imports 0.0 0.0 available available Total use (Local) 5 480.2 (a) 6 695.5 (a) Exports 1 275.4 1 050.0 Closing stocks 473.9 (b) 1 207.5 (b) (a) Including producer w ithdraw als and end-users (b) All stocks, regardless ow nership thereof, in commercial structures Sources: SAGIS, NAMC: S&DEC, USDA White Maize: Production & Producer Deliveries CEC Estimates, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries TOTAL MAIZE: CEC ESTIMATES, YIELD, HA & SAGIS DELIVERIES Ton CEC (Crop Est.) SAGIS (Prod del) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield) Yield 18 000 000 7.0 S&DEC 16 000 000 6.0 14 000 000 5.0 12 000 000 10 000 000 4.0 8 000 000 3.0 6 000 000 2.0 4 000 000 1.0 2 000 000 0 0.0 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 20/21 Progr. Proj. May May-Sep- 6 Nov White Maize: Raw material: Imports & Exports (2020/21 Progr. 1 May – 6 Nov ‘20) WHITE MAIZE: IMPORTS & EXPORTS Ton Imports Exports S&DEC 1 950 000 1 800 000 1 650 000 1 500 000 1 350 000 1 200 000 1 050 000 900 000 750 000 600 000 450 000 300 000 150 000 0 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 20/21 Progr. Proj. MayMay-Sep - 6 Nov White Maize: Exports Raw material Major Destinations (2020/21 Progr. 1 May – 6 Nov ‘20) Ethiopia Lesotho 3.8% Eswatini 7.5% 4.2% Nambia Botswana 3.9% 24.2% Mozambique 15.6% Italy Zimbabwe 9.1% 31.7% Progr. Total: 532 362 ton White Maize: RSA Consumption WHITE MAIZE: RSA CONSUMPTION Ton Human Animal/industrial S&DEC 6 000 000 5 000 000 4 000 000 3 000 000 2 000 000 1 000 000 0 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 20/21 Progr. Proj. May-Sep White Maize: Opening & Ending Stocks WHITE MAIZE: OPENING & ENDING STOCKS Ton Opening stock Ending Stock S&DEC 6 000 000 5 000 000 4 000 000 3 000 000 2 000 000 1 000 000 0 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 20/21 Progr. Proj. May-Sep White Maize: Supply & Demand: 20/21 Marketing Year Progr. 1 May – 30 Sep ‘20 White Maize: Current Season Ton 1 May - 30 September 2020 10 000 000 8 476 310 0 6 661 500 1 050 000 S&DEC S&DEC 9 000 000 S&DEC S&DEC Prod Del Imports Processed Exports 8 746 310 8 000 000 7 930 958 7 000 000 Until 6 Nov 6 000 000 5 000 000 4 000 000 3 000 000 2 721 835 2 000 000 Until 1 000 000 6 Nov 0 532 362 0 CEC (Crop Est.) SAGIS (Prod Del) Imports Processed Exports White Maize: Milled for product exports WHITE MAIZE: MILLED FOR PRODUCT EXPORTS Ton African Countries Other Countries 250 000 200 000 150 000 100 000 50 000 0 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 Progr. May-Sep Yellow Maize Yellow Maize: Supply & Demand (National vs. International) (Marketing season) SAGIS NAMC International (USDA) May - Apr Sep - Aug Yellow Maize Final Projection Estimate Projection 2019/20 2020/21 2019/20 2020/21 '000t '000t Mt Mt Opening stocks 864.1 526.6 319.8 304.2 Producer Deliveries 5 444.6 6 273.9 1 116.3 1 158.8 Imports 509.7 0.0 167.1 177.8 Total use (Local) 5 785.5 (a) 4 732.5 (a) 1 128.4 1 155.9 Exports 534.1 1 400.0 170.6 184.5 Closing stocks 526.6 (b) 679.5 (b) 304.2 300.5 (a) Including producer w ithdraw als and end-users (b) All stocks, regardless ow nership thereof, in commercial structures Sources: SAGIS, NAMC: S&DEC, USDA Yellow Maize: Production & Producer Deliveries CEC Estimates, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries YELLOW MAIZE: CEC ESTIMATE, YIELD, HA & SAGIS DELIVERIES Ton CEC (Crop Est.) SAGIS (Prod Del) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield) Yield 8 000 000 8.00 S&DEC 7 000 000 7.00 6 000 000 6.00 5 000 000 5.00 4 000 000 4.00 3 000 000 3.00 2 000 000 2.00 1 000 000 1.00 0 0.00 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 20/21 Progr. Proj. MayMay-Sep - 6 Nov Yellow Maize: Raw Material: Imports & Exports (2020/21 Progr. 1 May – 6 Nov ‘20) YELLOW MAIZE: IMPORTS & EXPORTS Imports Exports Ton S&DEC 2 000 000 1 800 000 1 600 000 1 400 000 1 200 000 1 000 000 800 000 600 000 400 000 200 000 0 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 20/21 Progr. Proj. May May-Sep- 6 Nov Yellow Maize: Exports Raw material Major destinations (2020/21 Progr. 1 May – 6 Oct ‘20) Other 8.0% Eswatini Japan 5.1% 13.2% Zimbabwe 4.9% Korea, Dem Taiwan 31.5% 28.0% Mozambique 11.2% Progr. Total: 1 153 550 ton Yellow Maize: RSA Consumption YELLOW MAIZE: RSA CONSUMPTION Ton Human Animal/industrial S&DEC 6 000 000 5 000 000 4 000 000 3 000 000 2 000 000 1 000 000 0 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 20/21 Progr. Proj. May-Sep Yellow Maize: Opening & Ending Stocks YELLOW MAIZE: OPENING & ENDING STOCKS Ton Opening stock Ending Stock S&DEC 3 500 000 3 000 000 2 500 000 2 000 000 1 500 000 1 000 000 500 000 0 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 20/21 Progr. Proj. May-Sep Yellow Maize: Supply & Demand: 2020/21 Marketing Year (2020/21 Progr. 1 May – 30 Sep ‘20) Yellow Maize: Current Season Ton 1 May - 30 September 2020 8 000 000 6 273 910 0 4 607 500 1 400 000 S&DEC S&DEC S&DEC S&DEC 7 000 000 Prod Del Imports Processed Exports 6 673 910 6 000 000 5 929 742 5 000 000 Until 6 Nov 4 000 000 3 000 000 2 047 812 2 000 000 1 153 550 1 000 000 Until 6 Nov 0 0 CEC (Crop Est.) SAGIS (Prod Del) Imports Processed Exports Yellow Maize: Milled for product Exports YELLOW MAIZE: MILLED FOR PRODUCT EXPORTS Ton African Countries Other Countries 120 000 100 000 80 000 60 000 40 000 20 000 0 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 Progr. May-Sep Total Maize Total Maize: Supply & Demand (National vs. International) (Marketing season) SAGIS NAMC International (USDA) May - Apr Sep - Aug Total Maize Final Projection Estimate Projection 2019/20 2020/21 2019/20 2020/21 '000t '000t Mt Mt Opening stocks 2 663.1 1 000.6 319.8 304.2 Producer Deliveries 10 887.1 14 750.2 1 116.3 1 158.8 Imports 509.7 0.0 167.1 177.8 Total use (Local) 11 265.7 (a) 11 428.0 (a) 1 128.4 1 155.9 Exports 1 809.5 2 450.0 170.6 184.5 Closing stocks 1 000.6 (b) 1 887.1 (b) 304.2 300.5 (a) Including producer w ithdraw als and end-users (b) All stocks, regardless ow nership thereof, in commercial structures Sources: SAGIS, NAMC: S&DEC, USDA Total Maize: Production & Producer Deliveries CEC Estimates, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries TOTAL MAIZE: CEC ESTIMATES, YIELD, HA & SAGIS DELIVERIES Ton CEC (Crop Est.) SAGIS (Prod del) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield) Yield 18 000 000 7.0 S&DEC 16 000 000 6.0 14 000 000 5.0 12 000 000 10 000 000 4.0 8 000 000 3.0 6 000 000 2.0 4 000 000 1.0 2 000 000 0 0.0 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 20/21 Progr. Proj. May May-Sep- 6 Nov Total Maize: Imports & Exports: Raw material (2020/21 Progr. 1 May – 6 Nov ‘20) TOTAL MAIZE: IMPORTS & EXPORTS Ton Total Imports Exports S&DEC 2 850 000 2 700 000 2 550 000 2 400 000 2 250 000 2 100 000 1 950 000 1 800 000 1 650 000 1 500 000 1 350 000 1 200 000 1 050 000 900 000 750 000 600 000 450 000 300 000 150 000 0 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 20/21 Progr.