OCS Study MMS 2007-042 VARIATION IN THE ABUNDANCE OF ARCTIC CISCO IN THE COLVILLE RIVER: ANALYSIS OF EXISTING DATA AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE VOLUME I: FINAL REPORT November 2007 Prepared for The U.S. Department of the Interior Minerals Management Service Alaska Outer Continental Shelf Region Environmental Studies Section 3801 Centerpoint Drive, Suite 500 Anchorage, AK 99503-5823 Contract No.: 1435-01-04-CT-34979 Prepared by ABR, Inc.–Environmental Research & Services Sigma Plus, Statistical Consulting Services Stephen R. Braund & Associates Kuukpik Subsistence Oversight Panel, Inc. OCS Study MMS 2007-042 VARIATION IN THE ABUNDANCE OF ARCTIC CISCO IN THE COLVILLE RIVER: ANALYSIS OF EXISTING DATA AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE VOLUME I: FINAL REPORT November 2007 Principal Investigator: Stephen M. Murphy ABR, Inc.–Environmental Research & Services Co-principal Investigator: Franz J. Mueter Sigma Plus, Statistical Consulting Services Co-principal Investigator: Stephen R. Braund Stephen R. Braund & Associates ABR, Inc.—Environmental Research & Services P.O. Box 80410 Fairbanks, AK 99708-0410 This study was funded by the U.S. Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service (MMS), Alaska Outer Continental Shelf Region, Anchorage, Alaska, under Contract No. 1435- 01-04-CT-34979, as part of the MMS Environmental Studies Program. Disclaimer: The opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this report or product are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Department of the Interior, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use by the federal government. OCS Study MMS 2007-042 PROJECT ORGANIZATION REPORT AUTHORS Stephen M. Murphy, ABR, Inc.—Environmental Research & Services, Fairbanks, AK: Principal Investigator, Program Manager, and Lead Author Franz J. Mueter, Sigma Plus, Statistical Consulting Services, Fairbanks, AK: Co-principal Investigator, Lead Data Analyst, Fisheries Oceanographer, and Co-author Stephen R. Braund, Stephen R. Braund & Associates, Anchorage, AK: Co-principal Investigator, Cultural Anthropologist, and Co-author Leonard Lampe, Sr., Kuukpik Subsistence Oversight Panel, Inc., Nuiqsut, AK: Subsistence Fisher, Community Liaison for the Panel of Experts, and Co-author Alex K. Prichard, ABR, Inc., Fairbanks, AK: Lead Database Manager, Data Analyst, Technical Reviewer, and Co-author Betty A. Anderson, ABR, Inc., Fairbanks, AK: Lead Bibliographer, Database Manager, and Co-author John C. Seigle, ABR, Inc., Anchorage, AK: Fisheries Biologist, Technical Reviewer, and Co-author NUIQSUT PANEL OF EXPERTS Joeb Woods Sr., Panel of Experts, Nuiqsut, AK Dora Nukapigak, Panel of Experts, Nuiqsut, AK Gordon Matumeak, Panel of Experts, Nuiqsut, AK Gordon Brown, Panel of Experts, Nuiqsut, AK Robert Lampe Sr., Panel of Experts, Nuiqsut, AK Bernice Kaigelak, Panel of Experts, Nuiqsut, AK Sam Tukle, Panel of Experts, Nuiqsut, AK Archie Ahkiviana, Panel of Experts, Nuiqsut, AK Marjorie Ahnupkana, Panel of Experts, Nuiqsut, AK Frank Oyagak Jr., Panel of Experts, Nuiqsut, AK ABR, Inc. iii Variation in the Abundance of Arctic Cisco OCS Study MMS 2007-042 OTHER KEY PROJECT PERSONNEL Lawrence L. Moulton, MJM Research, Lopez Island, WA: Lead Fisheries Biologist and Technical Reviewer John R. Rose, ABR, Inc. —Environmental Research & Services, Fairbanks, AK: Database Manager for Anthropogenic Activity Elizabeth Sears, Stephen R. Braund & Associates, Anchorage, AK: Cultural Anthropologist Pamela Odom, ABR, Inc. —Environmental Research & Services, Fairbanks, AK: Document Specialist SUGGESTED CITATION ABR, Inc.—Environmental Research & Services (ABR, Inc.); Sigma Plus, Statistical Consulting Services; Stephen R. Braund & Associates; and Kuukpik Subsistence Oversight Panel, Inc. 2007. Variation in the Abundance of Arctic Cisco in the Colville River: Analysis of Existing Data and Local Knowledge, Volumes I and II. Prepared for the U.S. Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service Alaska OCS Region, Anchorage, AK. Technical Report No. MMS 2007-042. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was funded by the Minerals Management Service (MMS), and we thank Kate Wedemeyer (Contracting Officer’s Technical Representative for MMS) who administered this study and provided fisheries and oceanographic expertise, critical reviews of draft work products, and original ideas about how to successfully implement the study. This study depended on a successful collaboration with the community of Nuiqsut, and we are grateful to the Kuukpik Subsistence Oversight Panel, Inc. (KSOPI) and Marlene Lampe (KSOPI Executive Director), in particular, for facilitating our interactions with the community. We also thank the members of the Panel of Experts (Joeb Woods, Sr.; Dora Nukapigak; Gordon Matumeak; Gordon Brown; Robert Lampe, Sr.; Bernice Kaigelak; Sam Tukle; Archie Ahkiviana; Marjorie Ahnupkana; and Frank Oyagak, Jr.) who shared their experiences and knowledge with the scientific team. And we thank the residents of Nuiqsut who welcomed us into their community and made this study possible. This study depended heavily on the experience and fisheries expertise of Larry Moulton (MJM Research). Dr. Moulton provided data on the subsistence harvest, attended meetings with the Panel of Experts, and reviewed draft work products. We also are grateful to ConocoPhillips Alaska Inc. and BP Alaska Exploration for providing data from previous studies and on their development activities in the Colville region. Allison Zusi-Cobb, Will Lentz, Matt Macander, and Becky Baird (all of ABR, Inc.) also contributed to this study. Variation in the Abundance of Arctic Cisco iv ABR, Inc. OCS Study MMS 2007-042 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Arctic cisco (qaaktaq; Coregonus autumnalis) are important to the culture of Iñupiat people on the North Slope, and the subsistence fishery on the Colville delta provides a major food source for the residents of Nuiqsut. The goal of this study was to evaluate existing scientific data and local knowledge from subsistence fishers to increase our understanding of annual variability in the abundance and subsistence harvest rates of Arctic cisco in the Colville River. This study included five main tasks: (1) assemble all literature and data relevant to Arctic cisco, including and biotic and abiotic factors that potentially could be affecting their abundance and availability to the subsistence fishery; (2) convene and work closely with a Panel of Experts from the subsistence fishing community to obtain local knowledge for incorporation into the analytical work and to gain consensus, when possible, between the scientists and fishers on the results, interpretations, and recommendations resulting from the analytical work; (3) exploration of the relationships among biotic and abiotic variables and identify testable hypotheses; (4) test a series of a priori hypotheses, hypotheses identified during preliminary analyses, and hypotheses developed from input provided by the Panel and Experts; and (5) perform sensitivity analyses to determine the importance and influence of the variables evaluated and to help identify data gaps and future research priorities. An improved understanding of the causes of this observed variability is needed by the Minerals Management Service (MMS) to support environmental risk assessments, Environmental Impact Statements for potential oil and gas leasing, and for other decision documents in the Beaufort Sea Planning Area. LIFE HISTORY OF ARCTIC CISCO The current understanding of the life history of this fish suggests that most or all Arctic cisco in the Beaufort Sea originate from adults spawning in the Mackenzie River in Canada. In the spring, juvenile (i.e., young-of-the-year) Arctic cisco are carried downriver into ice-free waters of the coastal Beaufort Sea and then are transported westward towards Alaska by currents. If easterly winds prevail during the summer, juveniles can be carried as far west as Prudhoe Bay and the Colville River region where they take up winter residence. Although juveniles may overwinter in the Sagavanirktok delta, most juveniles and subadults (< age 7) are believed to overwinter in the brackish waters of the Colville River, which is the only river in Alaska known to support significant numbers of Arctic cisco. In summer, subadult Arctic cisco swim into Beaufort Sea coastal waters to feed. They remain in the Colville River region until the beginning of sexual maturity at about age seven. These sexually mature fish then migrate back to the Mackenzie River for fall spawning. Arctic cisco continue to spawn every other year or so and likely remain in the Mackenzie region for the rest of their lives, with life expectancy being 19 years or more. PANEL OF EXPERTS With help from Kuukpik Subsistence Oversight Panel, Inc. (KSOPI), the scientific team sought to engage Nuiqsut residents who were experienced and knowledgeable about Arctic cisco and also were willing to attend workshops and meetings with scientists. Ten residents were selected to be on a Panel of Local Experts, and their primary roles, as outlined by MMS, were to identify sources of information, including traditional knowledge, that would help the scientific ABR, Inc. v Variation in the Abundance of Arctic Cisco OCS Study MMS 2007-042 Executive Summary team understand the observed annual changes in Arctic cisco abundance and to evaluate (validate) the findings of the scientific team. Four meetings were held with the Panel of Experts during the course of the project, with meeting