/H`^HYKZ *VTTLYJPHS9LHS,Z[H[L:LY]PJLZ>VYSK^PKL Submission Document SD22 LIVERPOOL CITY REGION SUPERPORT AN ANALYSIS OF THE SUPPLY OF, AND DEMAND FOR, DISTRIBUTION SPACE WITHIN THE LIVERPOOL CITY REGION MarchT 2014 LIVERPOOL CITY REGION SUPERPORT 2 CONTENTS LIVERPOOL CITY REGION SUPERPORT Contents 1 Introduction .........................................................................................................8 1.1 Assets ..............................................................................................................................................8 1.2 Supply chain .................................................................................................................................. 10 1.3 Competition ................................................................................................................................... 10 1.4 Objectives ...................................................................................................................................... 11 2 Demand ..............................................................................................................12 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 12 2.1.1 Shipper power ............................................................................................................................... 13 2.1.2 Retailer revolution .......................................................................................................................... 14 2.1.3 Manufacturing evolution ................................................................................................................ 15 2.2 Context .......................................................................................................................................... 17 2.2.1 Shipper strategies.......................................................................................................................... 17 2.2.2 Changes in infrastructure .............................................................................................................. 19 2.2.3 Changes in mode ..........................................................................................................................20 2.2.4 Summary .......................................................................................................................................22 2.3 Demand for land ............................................................................................................................23 2.3.1 Current demand ............................................................................................................................ 24 2.3.2 Demand drivers ............................................................................................................................. 25 2.4 Impact model ................................................................................................................................29 2.4.1 Economic trends ...........................................................................................................................30 2.4.2 Logistics modelling ........................................................................................................................34 2.5 Future Scenarios ...........................................................................................................................36 2.5.1 Containers .....................................................................................................................................36 2.5.2 Port-centric warehousing .............................................................................................................. 37 2.5.3 RORO ............................................................................................................................................38 2.5.4 Trade Cars .....................................................................................................................................38 2.5.5 Non-unitised cargos ......................................................................................................................39 2.5.6 Complementary sectors ................................................................................................................39 2.6 Demand for land ............................................................................................................................40 2.6.1 Demand from economic activity ....................................................................................................40 2.6.2 Changes to the port ......................................................................................................................40 2.6.3 Secondary demand.......................................................................................................................40 2.7 Demand for Jobs ........................................................................................................................... 42 2.8 Demand for Infrastructure ..............................................................................................................44 2.8.1 Road ..............................................................................................................................................44 2.8.2 Rail ................................................................................................................................................48 2.8.3 Inland Waterways .......................................................................................................................... 47 3 Land and Premises Supply .............................................................................. 48 3.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................48 3.2 Characteristics of Logistics Activity ...............................................................................................49 3.3 Logistics Clusters ..........................................................................................................................50 3.4 Assessing Existing Land and Premises Supply .............................................................................51 3.4.1 Overall Employment Land Supply .................................................................................................52 3.4.2 Qualitative Assessment of Existing Land Supply for Logistics Facilities .........................................55 3.4.3 Meeting Projected Demand for Logistics Facilities ........................................................................60 4 Conclusions .......................................................................................................62 4.1 Competitive landscape ..................................................................................................................63 4.2 Modal shift .....................................................................................................................................63 4.3 Landside connectivity ....................................................................................................................63 4.4 Supply and demand ......................................................................................................................64 4.5 Economic impact ..........................................................................................................................64 5 Recommendations and next steps ..................................................................65 CONTENTS 3 LIVERPOOL CITY REGION SUPERPORT Executive Summary Investment in Liverpool SUPERPORT presents a generational opportunity to place the port and surrounding logistics infrastructure at the heart of business in the UK and to claw back trade from it’s natural hinterland lost to the South East. The growth of ports on the south and east coast have distorted patterns of trade, taking business from the natural hinterland of the City Region. In order to redress that situation Liverpool aims not to be just on a par with Felixstowe, London Gateway or Southampton – but to be better. 3P]LYWVVSHPTZ[VILJVTLHI`^VYKMVYPUUV]H[P]LJVZ[LMÄJPLU[Z\Z[HPUHISLWVY[VWLYH[PVU[OH[JHUILYLWSPJH[LK around the world. This requires a passionate, coherent commonality of vision, strategy and cooperation amongst all the stakeholders . Liverpool SUPERPORT embodies this ambition. This report presents an audit of demand for land, looking at the factors that drive demand and changes in the global and national context over the next twenty years that will affect SUPERPORT. The report then goes on to examine the planned supply of sites in the City Region that could meet the demand generated by the local economy. These ZP[LZHYLL]HS\H[LK[HRPUNPU[VHJJV\U[ZPaLX\HSP[`HUKZ\P[HIPSP[`HUKTH[JOLKHNHPUZ[[OLKLTHUKWYVÄSL generated using three different scanarios. LIVERPOOL IN RELATION TO OTHER MAJOR TRADE ROUTES 5VY[O:LH9V\[L 9V[[LYKHT 30=,97663 -LSP_Z[V^L ;Z\NHY\ ;HP^HU:[YHP[ :H]HUUHO @\RH[HU :\La*HUHS +\IHP :OHUNOHP *OHUULS >PUK^HYK7HZZHNL :[YHP[VM 4VUH7HZZHNL /VYT\a 7HUHTH *HUHS :[YHP[VM )HI,S4HUKHI 4HSHJJH :\La9V\[L )HSIVH 4HRHZZHY :PUNHWVYL 3VTIVR ;VYYLZ *HWL9V\[L +\YIHU *HWLVM.VVK/VWL 4HNLSSHU7HZZHNL 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY LIVERPOOL CITY REGION SUPERPORT KEY POINTS Competition in the future will not be between ports Although this