burke chair in strategy The Changing Security Balance in the Gulf Joint and Asymmetric Warfare, Missiles and Missile Defense, Civil War and Non-State Actors, and Outside Powers By Anthony H. Cordesman, with the assistance of Michael Peacock April 2, 2015 Request for comments: This report is a draft that will be turned into an electronic book. Comments and suggested changes would be greatly appreciated. Please send any comments to Anthony H. Cordsman, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, at [email protected]. ANTHONY H. CORDESMAN Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy [email protected] Cordesman: The Changing Security Balance in the Gulf April 2015 2 Table of Contents I. THE SECURITY BALANCE: THE CHANGING BALANCE OF THE GULF FORCES AND REGIONAL THREATS ......................... 8 THE CHANGING CONVENTIONAL MILITARY BALANCE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 THE PROSPECTS FOR A BROADER ARAB ALLIANCE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 11 THE NUCLEAR, ROCKET/MISSILE, AND MISSILE DEFENSE BALANCE ........................................................................................................................................................ 13 ASYMMETRIC/IRREGULAR WARFARE .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 14 NON-STATE ACTORS AND INTERNAL SECURITY FORCES: TERRORISM, CIVIL WAR AND INSURGENCY ................................................................................................ 15 THE CIVIL SIDE OF SECURITY ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 16 THE DATA FOR MEASURING THE CHANGING NATURE OF THE SECURITY BALANCE................................................................................................................................ 16 THE UNCHANGING STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF THE GULF REGION .......................................................................................................................................................... 16 Figure I.1: Gulf Military Forces – Part One .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 19 Figure I.1: Gulf Military Forces – Part Two ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 20 Figure I.2: Key Outside Forces – Part One ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 21 Figure I.2: Key Outside Forces – Part Two .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 22 Map I.1: Gulf Energy Facilities and the Broader Geography of the Gulf Region .......................................................................................................................................... 23 Map I.1: The Global Strategic Importance of Gulf Oil Exports ............................................................................................................................................................................. 24 II. MILITARY EXPENDITURES ........................................................................................................................................................................... 25 Figure II.1: Gulf States Military Spending, 1997-2014 ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 27 Figure II.2: Gulf State Military Spending, 1997-2014 .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 28 Figure II.3: Military Expenditures as a Percentage of GDP for the Gulf States ............................................................................................................................................ 29 Figure II.4: Gulf States’ Gross Domestic Product ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 30 III. ARMS IMPORTS ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 31 A LACK OF RELIABLE OFFICIAL DATA ON TOTAL ARMS TRANSFERS ......................................................................................................................................................... 31 MIXED OFFICIAL DATA ON US ARMS TRANSFERS: DEFENSE SECURITY COOPERATION AGENCY (DCSA) ......................................................................................... 31 MIXED OFFICIAL DATA ON US ARMS TRANSFERS: CONGRESSIONAL RESEARCH SERVICE (CRS) ........................................................................................................ 32 COMMERCIAL AND MEDIA REPORTING ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 36 NGO REPORTING ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 36 LOOKING AT MAJOR WEAPONS TRANSFERS ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37 Figure III.1 CRS: The Arms Delivery Gap: Iran vs. GCC 2004-2011 ................................................................................................................................................................... 38 Figure III.2: CRS: The Arms Delivery Gap: Iran vs. GCC 2004-2011 ................................................................................................................................................................. 39 Figure III.3: CRS: The New Arms Order Gap: Iran vs. GCC 2004-2011 ............................................................................................................................................................ 40 Figure III.4: CRS: The New Arms Order Gap: Iran vs. GCC 2004-2011 ............................................................................................................................................................ 41 Figure III.3: Arms Transfer Agreements in Millions of U.S. Dollars (SIPRI) .................................................................................................................................................. 42 Figure III.5: Major US arms Transfers to Saudi Arabia: October 2010 to October 2014 ........................................................................................................................ 43 Figure III.6: SIPRI Estimate of Arms Transfer Agreements: 2004-2008 in $US Millions ....................................................................................................................... 44 Figure III.7: SIPRI Estimate of Arms Transfer Agreements 2009-2013 in $US Millions......................................................................................................................... 45 Figure III.7: Selected US and Non US Arms Sales in the Gulf ................................................................................................................................................................................ 46 Cordesman: The Changing Security Balance in the Gulf April 2015 3 IV. MILITARY MANPOWER ................................................................................................................................................................................. 54 Figure IV.1: Total Gulf State Active, Reserve, and Paramilitary Manpower .................................................................................................................................................. 55 Figure IV.2: Total Active Gulf State Manpower by Military Branch .................................................................................................................................................................. 56 Figure IV.3: Total Manning of Gulf Reserve Forces ..................................................................................................................................................................................................