Annex II – Feasibility Study GREEN CLIMATE FUND FUNDING PROPOSAL I Technical Feasibility Report Strengthening climate resilience of agricultural livelihoods in Agro‐ Ecological Regions I and II in Zambia Ministry of Agriculture Republic of Zambia Report prepared by the Government of Zambia, with technical support from United Nations Development Programme 1 Annex II – Feasibility Study GREEN CLIMATE FUND FUNDING PROPOSAL I Forward Zambia is one of the countries in Sub‐Sahara Africa most vulnerable to climate change, in part due to its dependence on natural resources and agriculture. This situation is exacerbated by the prospect of increasing risks of climate‐induced disasters, particularly those associated with droughts and highly variable rainfall. In response, Zambia ratified the Kyoto Protocol in November 1992 and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in May 1993. As a landlocked Least Developed Country (LDC), Zambia has participated in UNFCCC processes, including developing its National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) in 2007 that identified urgent and immediate adaptation needs. Zambia furthermore submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) as part of the Paris Agreement on climate change and the decisions adopted at the 19th and 20th sessions of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC. Agriculture is the backbone of Zambia’s economy and as the sector relies heavily on natural resources, it emerges as the most vulnerable to climate change. A large proportion of the population is dependent on livelihoods connected to agriculture. Agro‐ecological Regions I and II are characterized by rain‐fed agriculture and extreme climate events such as drought and sporadic dry spells which increase the vulnerability of the rural poor. The agriculture sector is vital for Zambia and includes approximately 85% of its population. However, over the course of the last 30 years, the impacts of floods and droughts have been estimated to cost the country USD 13.8 billion. If no measures were to be taken, climate change is expected to reduce GDP growth by up to 0.9% per year. This project will support the Government of Zambia to build climate resilience and aims to enhance the lives and livelihoods of small‐scale farmers in Agro‐ecological Regions I and II to better adapt to climate change. The poorest smallholder farmers and particularly women are disproportionally impacted by climate‐related hazards, which are often a threat to food security and resilient livelihood opportunities. Smallholder farmers in the target regions are also confronted with limited access to water and typically receive less than 800mm of rainfall in Region I and between 800‐1000mm in Region II. Climate change is a major threat to agricultural productivity, livelihoods and poverty in these regions. It is therefore important to introduce innovative land and water management technologies, to ensure that information is available for better management of scarce water resources and ensure that resilient agricultural practices are followed. Over the last decade various projects and programmes have been implemented, aimed at strengthening the resilience and adaptive capacities of vulnerable communities. Many have focused on a particular sector or small region. This project will build on previous projects drawing important lessons about what does and does not work, address gaps in infrastructure, technical and human capacity, and promote innovative market access to ensure agricultural livelihoods are insulated against the impacts of climate change. Against this background, the Ministry of Agriculture is pleased to present the findings of the feasibility study on ‘Strengthening climate resilience of agricultural livelihoods in Agro‐Ecological Regions I and II in Zambia’, developed by the Government of Zambia with technical support from the United Nations Development Programme. The study examines observed climate changes and projections in Zambia and the impact of these changes on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers in Agro‐ecological Regions I and II. It addresses the financial, technical, policy and capacity barriers that smallholder farmers and women face and recommends strategies and solutions to these obstacles. It also assesses the impacts on water, agriculture, agricultural markets and agricultural value chains by taking a holistic approach 2 Annex II – Feasibility Study GREEN CLIMATE FUND FUNDING PROPOSAL I and provides a set of recommendations and best practices. The recommendations and analyses conveyed by this study have been used to identify and inform specific activities for implementation to strengthen the climate resilience and adaptive capacity of agricultural livelihoods in Zambia in the most vulnerable Agro‐Ecological Regions I and II. We look forward to working together with the concerned national and international institutions, UNDP and the Green Climate Fund to increase the resilience of livelihoods in the Agro‐Ecological Regions I and II in Zambia. It is expected that the experiences gained through implementation of these recommendations will result in policy impacts and strategic frameworks that can be replicated in other vulnerable sectors and regions across the country. Julius J. Shawa Permanent Secretary Ministry of Agriculture 3 Annex II – Feasibility Study GREEN CLIMATE FUND FUNDING PROPOSAL I Table of contents FORWARD ................................................................................................................................................... 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................................................................. 4 LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................................................... 8 LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................................................... 10 CHAPTER 1: DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT AND CHALLENGES IN ZAMBIAN AGROECOLOGICAL REGIONS I & II ..................................................................................................................................... 12 1.1 Incomes, livelihoods and poverty – nationally and in targeted areas .............................................. 12 1.2 Temperature, rainfall, and seasons within agro‐climate regions ..................................................... 15 1.3 Water resources, agriculture and rural livelihoods in Agro‐ecological Regions I & II ........................ 17 1.4 Socio‐economic conditions in agro‐ecological regions I & II ............................................................ 21 1.5 Climate change vulnerability, impacts and risks in agro‐ecological regions I & II ............................. 22 1.5.1 Climate and disaster risk profile (current climate) ............................................................................ 22 1.5.2 District specific vulnerabilities to climate induced shocks ................................................................ 24 1.5.3 Climate change impacts on livelihoods in the agriculture sector ...................................................... 26 CHAPTER 2: INSTITUTIONAL AND POLICY CONTEXT ........................................................................ 29 2.1 Priorities identified in national development policies and strategies related to climate change adaptation in the agricultural sector. ......................................................................................................... 29 2.1.1 National Policies to support the Agriculture Sector .......................................................................... 29 2.1.2 Zambia’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) ....................................................... 30 2.2 Institutions and institutional frameworks at the national, provincial and community level that address climate risk in the agricultural sector .......................................................................................................... 30 2.2.1 Water management ......................................................................................................................... 32 2.3 Stakeholder Engagement: prioritizing women under the Agriculture Support Programme (ASP) ..... 34 2.4 Sector/policies and protocols with links to Agriculture: .................................................................. 35 2.5 Non‐governmental organizations engaged in the agriculture sector ............................................... 37 2.6 Private sector organizations working throughout the value chain ................................................... 38 4 Annex II – Feasibility Study GREEN CLIMATE FUND FUNDING PROPOSAL I CHAPTER 3: AN OVERVIEW OF CURRENT STATUS, PAST AND ON‐GOING EFFORTS TO STRENGTHEN AGRICULTURAL LIVELIHOODS, DEVELOP RESILIENT AGRICULTURAL VALUE CHAINS, MANAGE WATER AND CLIMATE RISKS 39 3.1 Increasing access to climate information and relevant early warning systems to support farmer decision making ......................................................................................................................................... 40 3.1.1 The weather station network ........................................................................................................... 40 3.1.2 Weather and seasonal forecasts .....................................................................................................