APRIL 2020 Public Disclosure Authorized Strengthening Hydromet and Early Warning Services in Belarus A Road Map Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized ©2020 The World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW Washington D.C. 20433, USA Internet: www.worldbank.org Disclaimer: This report is a product of staff of the World Bank Group with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This road map was prepared by the World Bank Belhydromet, for their support and assistance Group/Global Facility for Disaster Reduction in granting access to information, for providing and Recovery (GFDRR) under the “Enhancing support and being available for discussions during Disaster and Accident Preparedness in the the process of preparing the road map. Republic of Belarus” technical assistance. It presents a potential pathway to strengthen the This road map was prepared by Haleh country’s national hydrometeorological (hydromet) Kootval (Senior Specialist, Meteorology and Early Warning Systems and services, forest and Public Weather Services), Andreas fire forecasting, and radiation monitoring and Schumann (Senior Specialist, Hydrology), forecasting services based on the needs of the Kathrin Baumann-Stanzer (Senior Specialist, user community. The road map is based on a Radiation Monitoring and Forecasting), Paul technical evaluation and detailed assessment of Skomorowski (Senior Specialist, Radiation the needs and capacities of Belhydromet which, Monitoring and Forecasting), Andreas as the main service provider in the country, issues Schaffhauser (Senior Specialist, MeteoAlarm weather, water, forest fire and radiation-related Integration), Paolo Fiorucci (Senior Specialist, information, forecasts and warnings. Forest Fires), Tatiana Bedrina (Disaster Loss Data Specialist), Vladislava Nemova (Natural Other government agencies that are responsible Resources Management Specialist) and Daniel for the provision of advisory services related to Kull (Task Team Leader and Senior Disaster weather, climate, hydrology, forest fire, radiation, Risk Management Specialist), with additional disaster management and agriculture to end- Russian-language technical support from users are considered as key stakeholders of the Nora Mirzoyan (Disaster Risk Management Belhydromet information and services. Some Specialist), Anna-Maria Bogdanova (Disaster important stakeholders include the Ministry on Risk Management Specialist) and Vladimir Emergency Situations; Department of Crop Tsirkunov (Lead Specialist). Production at the Ministry of Agriculture and Design: Johanna Mora Food; State Institution for Forest Protection and Monitoring; Forest Institute; National Statistical Cover photo: Belhydromet Committee of Belarus; Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant; and State Aviation Rescue Institution. This road map identifies gaps and challenges in the production and delivery of weather, climate, hydrological, forest fire and radiation-related information and services, and proposes a strategy for improving the country’s institutional capacity in support of saving lives, protecting property and livelihoods, and social and economic development. The road map authors consulted a number of government institutions and agencies (including several among the above-listed). The road map is the result of a collaboration between the Government of Belarus and the World Bank Group. The authors wish to extend their appreciation to and acknowledge the national agencies, ministries and organizations, in particular the Ministry on Emergency Situations and 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS _______________________________________________________________ 3 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ______________________________________________________ 8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY _______________________________________________________________11 1. INTRODUCTION TO GEOGRAPHICAL FEATURES AND WEATHER, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL HAZARDS __________________________________ 17 2. WEATHER AND CLIMATE RISKS _________________________________________________________ 23 3. SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF HYDROMET HAZARDS ______________________________________ 25 4. ASSESSMENT OF USER NEEDS FOR WEATHER, CLIMATE, AND HYDROLOCIAL SERVICES AND ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING _________________________ 26 5. INSTITUTIONAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL ANALYSIS _________________________________________ 28 5.1 HISTORY OF BELHYDROMET ________________________________________________________ 28 6. CURRENT STATUS OF BELHYDROMET _________________________________________________ 34 6.1 SERVICE DELIVERY SYSTEMS _______________________________________________________ 34 6.1.1 Public Weather Services System __________________________________________________ 34 6.1.2 Disaster Management Services System _____________________________________________ 35 6.1.3 Water Management and Flood Forecasting Services System ____________________________ 35 6.1.4 Agriculture Services System ______________________________________________________ 37 6.1.5 Aviation Services System ________________________________________________________ 37 6.1.6 Climate Services System ________________________________________________________ 38 6.1.7 Forest Fire Services System ______________________________________________________ 39 6.1.8 Environmental Monitoring Services System __________________________________________ 40 6.2 QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS ___________________________________________________ 40 6.2.1 Institutional and Operational Management Systems ___________________________________ 41 6.3 CAPACITY BUILDING _______________________________________________________________ 41 6.4 MONITORING AND OBSERVATION SYSTEMS ___________________________________________ 41 6.4.1 Global and Regional Data Systems ________________________________________________ 41 6.4.2 National Data Systems __________________________________________________________ 42 6.4.3 Upper Air System ______________________________________________________________ 43 6.4.4 Radar System _________________________________________________________________ 43 6.4.5 Remote-Sensing System ________________________________________________________ 43 6.4.6 Radiation _____________________________________________________________________ 44 6.4.7 Data Management and Archiving Systems: Data Collection System, Quality Control/Assurance System, Storage and Archiving System ____________________________ 47 6.5 ICT SYSTEMS: TELECOMMUNICATION SYSTEM (DATA EXCHANGE AND DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM, TRANSMISSION) _____________________________________________ 48 6.6 MODELING SYSTEMS ______________________________________________________________ 48 6.6.1 Meteorological Models (Global and Regional NWP Systems) ____________________________ 48 6.6.2 Limited Area Meteorological Models ________________________________________________ 48 6.6.3 Hydrological Models ____________________________________________________________ 48 4 6.6.4 Radiation Dispersion Models _____________________________________________________ 49 6.6.5 Forest Fire Models _____________________________________________________________ 49 6.7 OBJECTIVE AND IMPACT FORECASTING AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS __________________ 51 6.7.1 Severe Hazard Forecasting Systems _______________________________________________ 51 6.7.2 Short-Range Weather Forecasting Systems __________________________________________ 52 6.7.3 Medium-and Long-range Weather Forecasting Systems ________________________________ 54 6.7.4 Hydrological Forecasting Systems _________________________________________________ 54 6.7.5 Radiation Forecasting systems ____________________________________________________ 54 6.7.6 Forest Fire Forecasting Systems __________________________________________________ 55 6.8 METEOALARM ____________________________________________________________________ 56 6.8.1 About Meteoalarm ______________________________________________________________ 58 6.8.2 Basic Requirements for Meteoalarm Members ________________________________________ 60 7. MODERNIZATION OF METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLGICAL SERVICES AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ________________________________________________ 62 7.1 VALUE CHAIN APPROACH ________________________________________________________ 62 7.2 DEVELOPMENT AND COOPERATION PARTNERS _____________________________________ 66 8. PROPOSED ROAD MAP FOR MODERNISATION OF BELHYDROMET ___________________________ 67 8.1 DELIVERY OF SERVICES _________________________________________________________ 67 8.1.1 Strengthening Public Services for Weather, Climate, Hydrology, Forest Fire and Radiation _____ 71 8.1.2 Developing a National Drought Monitoring Service ____________________________________ 72 8.1.3 Developing a National Framework for Climate Services ________________________________ 72 8.1.4 Developing a National Information System for Airborne Hazards _________________________ 72 8.2 INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING AND CAPACITY BUILDLING ____________________________ 73 8.2.1 Institutional Strengthening _______________________________________________________ 73 8.2.2 Capacity Building