Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy: Situation Analysis Centre for Urban Research RMIT University April 2021 Recommended citation: Rickards, L., Butt, A., Richardson, A. and Dunn, K. (2021) Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy: Situation Analysis. Centre for Urban Research. https://engage.vic.gov.au/grampians-region- climate-adaptation-strategy Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy: Situation Analysis Table of contents GLOSSARY ..................................................................................................................................... 4 1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 5 1.1 Overview ........................................................................................................................................... 5 1.2 Adaptation Challenges ....................................................................................................................... 5 2 THE REGIONAL CONTEXT .................................................................................................... 11 2.1 Population ....................................................................................................................................... 11 2.2 Housing and urbanisation ................................................................................................................ 12 2.3 Biophysical features and water catchments ..................................................................................... 12 2.4 Energy infrastructure ....................................................................................................................... 13 2.5 Transport infrastructure .................................................................................................................. 13 2.6 Economic base ................................................................................................................................. 13 4 ADAPTATION FOCUS – AGRICULTURE ................................................................................ 17 4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 17 4.2 Existing vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities ............................................................................... 17 4.3 MaJor climate change risKs for agriculture in the Grampians region ................................................. 18 4.4 Key Adaptation Needs and Opportunities ........................................................................................ 20 4.5 Existing adaptation actions .............................................................................................................. 23 4.6 Examples of adaptation from other places ....................................................................................... 27 5 ADAPTATION FOCUS – ECONOMY ..................................................................................... 29 5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 29 5.2 Existing vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities ............................................................................... 29 5.3 MaJor climate change risKs for the Grampians economy .................................................................. 31 5.4 Key adaptation needs ...................................................................................................................... 32 5.5 Existing adaptation actions .............................................................................................................. 33 5.6 Examples of adaptation from other places ....................................................................................... 37 1 Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy: Situation Analysis 6 ADAPTATION FOCUS – MANAGEMENT OF THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT ...................... 38 6.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 38 6.2 Existing vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities ............................................................................... 38 6.3 MaJor climate change risKs for management of the Grampians’ natural environment ..................... 39 6.4 Key adaptation needs ...................................................................................................................... 40 6.5 Existing adaptation actions .............................................................................................................. 41 6.6 Examples of adaptation from other places ....................................................................................... 44 7 ADAPTATION FOCUS – HEALTH & WELLBEING .................................................................. 46 7.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 46 7.2 Existing vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities ............................................................................... 46 7.3 MaJor climate change risKs for Grampians health and wellbeing ...................................................... 47 7.4 Key adaptation needs ...................................................................................................................... 48 7.5 Existing adaptation actions .............................................................................................................. 49 7.6 Examples of adaptations from other places ..................................................................................... 51 8 ADAPTATION FOCUS – WATER ........................................................................................... 56 8.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 56 8.2 Existing vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities ............................................................................... 56 8.3 MaJor climate change risKs around water in the Grampians region .................................................. 57 8.4 Key adaptation needs ...................................................................................................................... 58 8.5 Existing adaptation actions .............................................................................................................. 60 8.6 Examples of adaptation from other places ....................................................................................... 62 9 HAZARD - HEAT ................................................................................................................... 66 9.1 Climate change proJections .............................................................................................................. 66 9.2 Regional hazard vulnerability .......................................................................................................... 66 9.3 Observed impacts of increased heat in the Grampians region .......................................................... 67 9.4 ProJected impacts of increased heat in the region: .......................................................................... 67 9.5 Interactions with other hazards ....................................................................................................... 69 9.6 Cross-sectoral adaptation needs ...................................................................................................... 69 2 Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy: Situation Analysis 10 HAZARD - DROUGHT ....................................................................................................... 70 10.1 Climate change proJections .............................................................................................................. 70 10.2 Regional hazard vulnerability .......................................................................................................... 70 10.3 Observed impacts ............................................................................................................................ 71 10.4 ProJected impacts in the region ....................................................................................................... 71 10.5 Interactions with other hazards ....................................................................................................... 72 10.6 Cross-sectoral adaptation needs ...................................................................................................... 73 11 HAZARD - FIRE ................................................................................................................. 74 11.1 Climate change proJections .............................................................................................................. 74 11.2 Regional hazard vulnerability .......................................................................................................... 74 11.3 Observed impacts ............................................................................................................................ 74 11.4 ProJected impacts ............................................................................................................................ 75 11.5