Vol. 63, No.4 NEWS LETTER University of Virginia • Institute of Government DECEMBER 1986 VIRGINIA ELECTIONS IN 1986: FT TO DEMOCRATS CT NUE by Larry Sabato The author is associate professor ofgovern­ but also voters approved two constitutional office. (The tenth, Republican G. William ment at the University of Virginia. This News amendments on voter registration that had Whitehurst of the Norfolk-Virginia Beach Letter is drawn from a chapter in the author's been strongly opposed by the state GOP. Second District, retired after eighteen years forthcoming Virginia Votes 1983-1986, which in Congress.) will be published by the Institute of Govern­ ment in the summer of1987. THE U.S. HOUSE CONTESTS Four of the state's ten congressmen were unopposed by the other party: Democrats In the United States just about every election Norman Sisisky of the Portsmouth-Chesa­ year is the "year of the incumbent." Since peake Fourth District, Dan Daniel of the Virginia was one of only six states without World War II about 91 percent of all incum­ Southside Fifth, and Rick Boucher of the any statewide election for governor or U.S. bent U.S. House members who have sought Southwest Ninth; and Republican D. French senator in 1986. 1 Yet the electoral patterns another term have in fact been reelected. But Slaughter of the Piedmont Seventh. (Daniel in the Old Dominion reflected to some degree 1986 was the postwar peak for incumbency had minor opposition from an independent, the national and southern drift to the Dem­ success: 98 percent ofall House members who and the others were completely unopposed.) ocrats. In a year that saw the Democratic 3 wanted reelection secured it. Virginia fit Virginia's unopposed percentage of her con­ party recapture the U. S. Senate, thanks in nicely into the national pattern, as nine of gressional delegation was the [lith highest in good part to crucial victories in five southern the ten House incumbents were returned to the nation (after Massachusetts, Florida, states, Virginia provided one of the five seats Louisiana, and Kentucky). the national Dem cratic party gained in the 30nly six House members (five Republicans, one Democrat) lost in November, and just two (one from each party) were defeated 2 U.S. House. The Democrats' capture of the in primaries. Of 435 members of the U.S. House, 393 sought In Virginia, as in much of the South, un­ Norfolk-Virginia Beach Second District reelection in 1986; 42 retired, died, or ran for other offices. opposed races are a staple of congressional enabled the party to secure half the state's House delegation of ten seats for the first time since the Watergate election of 1974. For the Republicans, the 1986 Virginia election added insult to the injury of the 1985 Dem­ ocratic sweep of all three statewide elective posts. Not only did the Republicans lose their VIRGINIA VOTES 1983-1986 FORTHCOMING IN 1987 majority of the state's U.S. House contingent, Professor Larry Sabato's series of publications analyzing Virginia's elections will continue with the release in the summer of 1987 of Virginia Votes 1983-1986, to be published by the Institute of Government. In addition to election analyses, this volume, the [lith in the series, will include official election results, by individual city and county, for the 'The others were Delaware, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, and West Virginia. major statewide elections during these years. 2The Democrats' U.S. Senate victories in the South were in Copies of Virginia Votes 1983-1986 can be preordered for $10.00 each (plus $1.50 for Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, and North Carolina. postage and handling) from the Institute of Government, 207 Minor Hall, University of Virginia, Charlottesville 22903 (phone: 804/924-3396). Please make checks payable to the University of Virginia. Note: The author wishes to thank Dorothy Hut­ cheon ofthe Federal Election Commission for her help in securing campaign finance data. 20 politics. In the Old Dominion only three Like Wolf, two other incumbents managed The only party turnover of a u.s. House seat districts-Northern Virginia's Eighth and victories more impressive than had been ex­ in Virginia came in the Norfolk-Virginia Tenth and the far Southwest Ninth-have pected, thereby insulating themselves further Beach Second District, where Democratic enough two-party competition to produce from serious challenge in the near future. In state Delegate Owen Pickett defeated Repub­ opposition regularly. But in 1986 even the the Republican-leaning Sixth District, which lican state Senator A. Joseph Canada by 49.5 Ninth suffered from a lack of competition includes Roanoke and some of the Shenan­ percent to 44.9 percent. Both Pickett and (for the first time in 132 years). The parties' doah Valley, Democratic incumbent Jim Olin, Canada were battle-scarred veterans of state­ decisions 110t to field candidates are easy to who had won only narrow victories in 1982 wide politics. Canada had been beaten for understand, given the high reelection rate of and 1984, fashioned a landslide win (69.9 lieutenant governor in the 1977 general elec­ incumbents and scarce party resources. Still, percent to 30.1 percent) over GOP National tion by Democrat Charles Robb; and Pickett since choic~ is the implicit guarantee given Committeewoman Flo Traywick. Traywick had been forced to withdraw as the Dem­ a democratic electorate, the result is unsat­ tried hard to convince voters of Olin's alleged ocratic nominee-presumptive for U.S. Senate isfactory and even disturbing to many voters. liberalism, and she ran an energetic campaign. in 1982 because of threats by then-state But she was outspent $350,000 to $197,000, Senator L. Douglas Wilder to run as an and her ideological charges did not take hold independent (due to Pickett's alleged conser­ against an officeholder who is a former busi­ vatism and insensitivity to black concerns). Those Virginia districts fortunate enough to ness executive and projects a quiet, moderate have a choice had some exciting races in 1986, image. even if the results were unsurprising. The From the outset, the demographics of the Northern Virginia Tenth District perhaps had district favored Pickett, since both he and A somewhat similar situation, with partisan the state's ablest pair of candidates in Re­ Canada represented Republican-leaning Vir­ labels everseJ deve!npedin-the Richmond­ publiclln incumbent Frank Wolf and Demo­ ginia Beach in the state legislature. If Pickett area Third District, as Republican incumbent crat John Milliken, a member of the Arling­ could use his hometown Beach connections Thomas Bliley trounced Democrat Kenneth ton County Board of Supervisors. Milliken to hold down Canada's expected lead in the Powell and liberal independent Stephen was able to raise an unusually large sum for resort city, he would win on the strength of Hodges. Powell had been strongly supported a challenger (about $724,0(0), but to no avail. a nearly guaranteed large margin in heavily by Governor Gerald Baliles and his allies in Not only did Wolf raise more money (about Democratic Norfolk. the Democratic party, but Bliley's winning $1.07 million) but also he garnered far more margin of 67.0 percent (to 29.7 percent for votes (winning 60.2 percent to Milliken's 39.8 Powell and 3.3 percent for Hodges) has percent), turning what was perceived as a The theory became reality on election day, clearly strengthened his hold on that House close contest into a runaway. Wolf's superior as Pickett kept Canada's Virginia Beach plu­ seat. constituency services and his high-energy rep­ rality to 4,650 votes while carrying Norfolk resentation of his district on local issues have by 13,004 votes. Pickett won Norfolk with seemingly made Wolf the most secure con­ Republican incumbent Herbert Bateman of an overwhelming edge in black precincts, and gressman in modern times from perpetually the Hampton-Newport News First District he was assisted there not only by the powerful unsettled Northern Virginia. won his third successive solid victory, but he Second District black leader Bishop L.E. has yet to approach the margins achieved by Willis but also by his one-time adversary, his congressional predecessors, Republican Lieutenant Governor L. Douglas Wilder. Paul S. Trible and Democrat Thomas N. Wilder buried the hatchet at a well-publicized The Republican incumbent in Northern Vir­ Downing.6 In defeating state Senator Robert event endorsing Pickett. (Virginian- Pilot re­ ginia's other congressional district, the C. Scott by 56.0 percent to 44.0 percent, porter Kent Jenkins began his story about Eighth, ran slightly stronger than Wolf, but Bateman frustrated that Democrat's bid to the occasion: "Lieutenant Governor L. Doug­ his showing was still considered less impres­ become the first black Virginia citizen to be las Wilder came not to bury Delegate Owen sive. Stan Parris won his ruth nonconsecutive elected to Congress since John Mercer Lang­ B. Pickett-he had done that once before. term by his largest margin ever (61.8 percent), ston ofSouthside won during the Reconstruc­ On Thursday, Wilder came to praise him."7) but against very weak opposition.4 His orig­ tion era. Scott, who represents a white­ inal Democratic opponent, former Alexan­ majority state Senate district in Newport dria mayor Charles Beatley-the only Vir­ News, got his campaign off to a slow start Canada's well-organized effort failed despite ginia candidate of either party nominated by and was outspent $582,000 to $346,000. The the strenuous support of Congressman G. primary in 1986-was forced in the summer First District is only about 29 percent black, William Whitehurst, the retiring Republican to withdraw for health reasons.