Jihad, Crime, and the Internet Content Analysis of Jihadist Forum Discussions Edna Erez, LL.B., Ph.D., University of Illinois at Chicago Gabriel Weimann, Ph.D., University of Haifa A. Aaron Weisburd, M.A., University of Illinois at Chicago October 31, 2011 Report submitted to the National Institute of Justice in fulfillment of requirements for Award Number 2006-IJ-CX-0038. Points of view expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. Jihad, Crime, and the Internet Page i Abstract It is common knowledge that terrorists, and Jihadists in particular, make extensive use of the Internet. But the Internet also provides a window into the full range of Jihadist activities. Previous research has identified the various uses of the Internet by Jihadists; however, little research has focused on forum discussions in Jihadist web sites that are of most concern to U.S. counterterrorism efforts. The purpose of the study is twofold: to provide quantitative and qualitative assessments of the content of communications in the forums. Special attention is paid to the nexus between crime and terrorism as it unfolds in the discussions. The data comprise 2112 discussion threads downloaded over two years from over 15 different prominent Arabic-language Jihadist forums and randomized for distribution to coders who are Arab and Sunni Muslims, whose native language is Arabic, and who grew up in Arab speaking countries. The results suggest that most discussions are short lived, involve a small number of participants from among the pool of registered forum members, and include few entries and pages. Participants often refer readers to approved web sites and share authentic Jihadist multimedia. References and quotes from religious sources are common. Over a third of the discussions include calls for Jihad, and 3% of the communications discuss non-terrorist illegal activities, particularly computer- and software-related offenses. Content analysis of the discussion summaries identified four groups: information dissemination, religious preaching, instruction or training, and social interactions. These groups all support three central activity pillars in the terrorist organization: ideological foundation, organizational structure, and operational means. In addition to traditional methods of waging Jihad, participation in forum discussions is itself considered a form of Jihad. Policy recommendations include making use of the fleeting nature of forum discussions to get inside the loop of Jihadist attention and interest; responding to threats by adding interference at any touchpoint along the communication process; mitigating the harm done by exposure to violent imagery, and understanding the context of the Arab, Muslim, and Jihadist milieu in which the studied social interactions take place. Recommendations for further research include examination of the content of links authenticated through the forums, an analysis of the rate of acceptance and adoption of views and behavior promoted by those in control of the forums, and a comparison of what is known about terrorists’ behavior from prosecution data to what is observed in their forums. This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. Jihad, Crime, and the Internet Page ii Table of Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................................................. i Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................................. ii Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... iv I. Background ........................................................................................................................................... iv II. Purpose ................................................................................................................................................. vi III. Research design and methods .................................................................................................. vii IV. Findings ............................................................................................................................................ viii A. Quantitative findings ................................................................................................................................................ viii B. Qualitative findings ...................................................................................................................................................... xi V. Conclusions ....................................................................................................................................... xiii A. Implications for policy and practice ................................................................................................................... xiii B. Implications for further research ......................................................................................................................... xiv Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................................ xvi Jihad, Crime, and the Internet .................................................................................................................... 1 I. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 1 A. Statement of the Problem ........................................................................................................................................... 1 B. Literature review ............................................................................................................................................................ 3 1. The Internet as research site ................................................................................................................................. 3 2. The aims and uses of Jihadist web sites ............................................................................................................ 4 3. The presence of Jihadists online ........................................................................................................................... 7 4. Forums as a center for terrorist activity online ............................................................................................ 9 5. Analyses and assessments of Jihadist content online .............................................................................. 13 6. The presence of al-Qaida leadership online ................................................................................................ 16 7. eJihad/Media Jihad ................................................................................................................................................. 19 8. Exposure to violence/conditioning ................................................................................................................. 21 9. Training and tradecraft ....................................................................................................................................... 22 10. Social networks and computer mediated communications (CMC) effects ................................... 25 11. Virtuality and presence: Internet as space or place ............................................................................... 28 12. Recruitment, operations, and cases ............................................................................................................... 30 13. Fundraising and crime ........................................................................................................................................ 34 C. Rationale for the study .............................................................................................................................................. 34 II. Methods .............................................................................................................................................. 40 A. Characteristics of forum discussions .................................................................................................................. 40 B. Sampling considerations and procedures ........................................................................................................ 41 1. Jihadist web sites sampling frame ................................................................................................................... 41 2. Sampling forum discussions ............................................................................................................................... 45 3. Preparation of forum discussions for delivery to coders ....................................................................... 47 4. Coding instrument development ...................................................................................................................... 48 5. Coder selection