Novel Forms of Livestock and Wildlife Integration Adjacent To Protected Areas in Africa – Tanzania Mapping Land Cover Changes in Simanjiro and Monduli Districts Mrigesh Kshatriya Shem Kifugo Fortunata Msoffe Moses Ole Neselle Mohammed Y Said International Livestock Research Institute 1.1 Background The GEF Medium-Sized project “Novel Forms of Livestock and Wildlife Integration Adjacent to Protected Areas in Africa: Tanzania” aims at the conservation of globally significant biodiversity, with improved ecological integrity, conflict resolution, food security and poverty alleviation. The objective of the GEF Medium-Sized project is to significantly reduce the conflict over access to resources through the integration of pastoralism, cropping and wildlife conservation through effective policy and institutional change. The geographic scope of the project area occurs within an ecosystem of approximately 35,000 km². The area includes two national parks (Tarangire and Lake Manyara), the Marang and Esimingor National Forest Reserves and the watershed of the Northern Highland Forest in the Ngorongoro Conservation Area. Lake Manyara is recognized internationally as a Biosphere Reserve. Tarangire and Manyara National Parks are acknowledged as keystone components of Tanzania’s tourism industry. Tarangire and Manyara are two of the highest grossing of Tanzania’s 12 national parks in terms of revenue generated and visitor numbers (the other two being Kilimanjaro and Serengeti NP’s). The GEF Medium-Sized project will explore and understand the dynamics of land use in the selected project area and use this knowledge to improve the returns to stakeholders from both wildlife and livestock simultaneously. This will be achieved by developing and implementing land use plans and establishing benefit-sharing mechanisms from wildlife such as community-managed business ventures. Since the Village Land Act (1999) and Land Act (1999) came into force, Village Councils have been instructed to categorise their land according to pre-existing or new land use plans to be approved by the Village Assembly and subject to advice of the District Council. The GEF Medium-Sized project will support this process and will strengthen the representativeness of the Village Councils and assist communities to participate fully in planning, by providing awareness, training and relevant tools. 2 The synthesis, collection and application of new information and tools in the Tarangire-Manyara Ecosystem will help decision makers in communities, NGO’s and government to formulate improved policies to enhance peoples’ livelihoods and promote ecological integrity. To achieve this objective, the GEF Medium-Sized project’s activities are divided into three components: ⇒ Component 1: To develop and implement participatory land use planning and Wildlife Management Areas (WMA); ⇒ Component 2: To design and implement benefit sharing mechanisms and to increase returns from integrated wildlife and livestock production systems; ⇒ Component 3: To develop Decision Support Tools in order to strengthen rational Resource-Access and Management. 1.2 lLRI’s contribution - Mapping land use changes ILRI’s contribution was divided in two phases. The first phase was focusing on the land use change trends and the second one was to focus on the development of Decision Support Tools (DSTs). 3 2.1 Introduction Over the past three decades there has been a notable change in land-uses in the Maasai-steppe including the study area, especially from subsistence to extensive agriculture. This has lead to a growing concern about the sustainability of the Maasai Steppe as an ecological system (Ecosystems Ltd., 1980; Borner, 1985b; Mwalyosi, 1991; TWCM, 2000; OIKOS, 2002b). Some of these changes have been influenced by political factors and the linkages between policies and ecological changes are poorly documented. Similar changes have also been noted in other Maasai land in Kenya (Homewood et al, 2001, Campbell et al., 2005, Norton-Griffiths et al, in press). Notable conversions to agriculture by pastoralists in the study area is linked partially to issues of land tenure insecurity, and livelihood needs, particularly, the need of the poor and the most vulnerable families (TNRF, 2005). These factors and others are likely to have negative impacts on the population of large migratory wildlife as well as the livelihoods of the local Maasai communities. This study highlights factors and processes that are believed to drive land-use change in the study area. A socio-political ecology approach is adapted focusing on the two districts of Monduli and Simanjiro due to their uniqueness and importance to the large wild herbivores (the key migratory species) and the local people. Like many of the unprotected land within the ecosystem the rangelands in the two districts is under great pressure because of the expanding cultivation and might therefore become less accessible for both livestock and wildlife in the near future, if the trend is left to continue (Voeten, 1999). Ecologically this area is a vibrant and important stronghold for the wildlife and pastoralists of northern Tanzania (Lamprey, 1963; Lamprey, 1964). It contains the second-largest population of migratory wild ungulates in East Africa (after only the Serengeti-Mara system) as well as the largest population of elephants in northern Tanzania (Foley, 2002; Douglas-Hamilton, 1987). The Simanjiro plains in Simanjiro District is one of the most important distribution and calving areas for wildebeest and zebra (TCP, 1998; Kahurananga, 1979; 1981; 1997). Large concentrations of wildlife and domestic animals including 4 cattle, sheep and goats, donkey share pasture in this area at various times of the year, particularly the wet season (Lamprey, 1964; Kahurananga & Silkilwasha, 1997; Voeten, 1999). Factors driving large mammals migration into the Simanjiro plains during the wet seasons are linked to the availability of enriched nutrient contents of the short grasslands and soils, including Calcium and Phosphorus that are very important for lactating females (McNaughton, 1990; Galanti, 1997). 2.2 Objectives of the study The objective of the study was to analyse the land cover and land use changes in Monduli and Simanjiro districts and characterise the drivers of these changes. In this study we conducted both broad analysis on land cover changes and also detail analysis at village level of patterns of land cover changes over two time periods of 1984 and 2000 using remotely sensed data and ground checks. 2.3 Study Area Monduli and Simanjiro Districts are among the six districts that form the “Maasai Steppe-proper” of northern Tanzania. Others are Kiteto, Kondoa, Babati and the newly formed Longido District. The Maasai steppe is located in Northern Tanzania and falls within an eastern limb of the East African rift valley and includes Tarangire and Lake Manyara National Parks, and the surrounding dispersion areas used by migratory wildlife. The area as defined by the extent of the movements of animals is part of the Maasai-Steppe that extends from Kenya, and located between 3° 40’ and 4° 35’ South Latitude and 35° 50’ and 36° 20’ East Longitude (Lamprey, 1964). It encompasses a vast area estimated variously at between 20,000 and 35,000 sq km (Borner, 1985; Prins, 1987) and stretches from Lake Natron to the north to the Simanjiro plains and Irangi Hills-Kondoa to the south, the Ngorongoro Crater and Mbulumbulu Hills form the border on the western side (Figure 2.1). 5 The study area is situated on a tree savannah in arid country dominated by Accacia and Commiphora species (Ludwig, 2001). It arises from about 1,000m in the south-west to 2,660 m in the north-east. About 75% of the area is flatland, 22% is rolling to moderately dissected and 3% is hilly. The area is also drained by rivers which eventually empty their waters into Lakes Burunge and Manyara. Lake Burunge is mainly fed by the Tarangire River, which drains parts of Babati, Simanjiro and Kondoa districts. The river is fed by both surface run off and ground water recharge (Mwalyosi, 1999). The movement of both livestock and wildlife is driven by rainfall and forage distribution. Also agriculture expansion is related to both temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall, soils and other factors. 6 Figure 2.1: The study area showing the 2 districts (Monduli and Simanjiro), the extent of the ecosystem and its proximity of protected areas. 7 The rainfall in the study area is bi-modal with short rains occurring between November to December followed by a dry spell and by a longer period of rain from March to May (Figure 2.2). The short rains are very unreliable and show a high spatial variation. The long rains are more reliable both in distribution and total amount. Rain averages to about 650 mm per annum, but can vary widely from year to year (TANAPA, 2001). As elsewhere in East Africa there exists a correlation between elevation and rainfall. Lower altitude areas tend to receive lesser than higher areas (Prins & Loth, 1988). The presence of rift valley tends to influence rainfall; areas nearer tend to show heavier and more regular rains. Mean maximum temperature is 27˚C and minimum temperature 16˚C. The extreme minimum is 4 ˚C in July and the highest maximum 40 ˚C in January. Humidity in October falls to 35 %, indicating very dry conditions (OIKOS, 2002b). 250 200 150 100 Rainfall (mm) 50 0 July May April June March August January October February November December September Month Figure 2.2: Monthly rainfall in Monduli showing rainfall pattern of the district with high rainfall between the months of November to May. We analyzed the temporal variation in rainfall in the study area. Year rainfall anomalies were calculated for the entire time series using the z-transform ((xi ­ m)/std), with xi being the rainfall value for a given year i, m the mean rainfall value for that across all years, and std is the standard deviation of the rainfall value across all years.