The Progression of Vulnerability: A multi-scalar perspective on disasters, the case of Chaitén, Chile Vicente Andrés Sandoval Henríquez Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy The Bartlett Development Planning Unit, UCL 2017 Declaration of authorship I, Vicente Andrés Sandoval Henríquez confirm that the work presented in this thesis is my own. Where information has been derived from other sources, I confirm that this has been indicated in the thesis. Signature: Abstract This research analyses policy responses to disasters in Chile. The main objective is to explore linkages between temporally and spatially distant processes of policy, governance and decision-making, and the materialisation of disaster vulnerability in the form of ‘unsafe conditions’. The study focuses on the progression of vulnerability in a post-disaster context, critically reflecting on the multiplicity of agencies and pressures in creating and increasing vulnerability of a specific territory at local scale. The central argument is that the Chilean model of disaster risk management and reduction is dominated by top-down and reactive approaches that tend to diminish the potentials of policy responses to disasters and ultimately became sources of vulnerability and risk. The research’s analytical framework is grounded in disaster studies and specifically it adopts a social constructionist approach to disaster, vulnerability and geographical scale focused on the Pressure and Release model. The latter allows one to look at the state territorial organisation of Chile as a structural factor in the national model of disaster management, and to place root causes and dynamic pressures of disaster vulnerability within the multi-scalar configuration of the country. The thesis chooses the Chaitén volcanic eruption that occurred in May 2008 in Los Lagos Region of Chile, and the disaster policy context in the country as the empirical base on which the argument is put forward. Several policy responses are examined using qualitative methods at national, regional and local scales, revealing the centralisation of disaster governance in Chile as a key factor in producing inadequate responses to the disaster that failed to utilise people’s knowledge and local organisational capacities. This disaster policy context mediated the materialisation of four unsafe conditions in Chaitén: the uneven distribution of risks; the limited access to services; the erosion of trust in public authorities; and the weaknesses of emergency planning. The research re-problematises and suggests new ways of ‘thinking vulnerability’ and disaster governance from a wider multi-scalar perspective. It explains that when policy responses to disasters do not consider local capacities and realities, these can facilitate the (re)production of unsafe conditions, and contribute to and perpetuate the generation of risks over time. This could help to challenge some still dominant views found in Chile and in many other national governments that dissimulate the causality of disaster generation and risk accumulation. 5 Acknowledgements I would like to express my gratitude to my principal and secondary supervisors Camillo Boano and Cassidy Johnson for their aspiring guidance and invaluable constructive insights during the project work. I am sincerely grateful to Julio Dávila, Martin Voss, and Colin Marx for their meaningful support. Special thanks to my friends and colleagues Rosalina Babourkova, Claudia González-Muzzio, Daniel Oviedo, Cristian Albornoz, and Lucia Nascimento, and everyone who help me throughout the process of this research in Chile, Germany, and United Kingdom. A special thanks to the Government of Chile for financing this research. I would like also to express my admiration to the people of Chaitén in Chile, for their courage and determination in adversity, and particularly I would like to thank those involved in the study for their time, openness, and hospitality. Finally, there is also my infinite gratitude to my partner Beatriz, and my daughter Emma and son Aitor, for their patience and love. Likewise, I would like to extend thanks to Rosamari and Javier for their support, as well as to my parents Miriam and Vicente for they taught me to always give my best effort. Con amor para mi familia. 7 Table of contents Abstract 5 Acknowledgements 7 List of figures 13 List of tables 15 List of acronyms and abbreviations 17 Chapter ONE 19 Introduction 1.1 Objectives, justification, and questions 23 1.2 Methodology: research design and methods 29 1.3 Structure of the thesis 36 Chapter TWO 41 Research strategy and methodology Introduction 41 2.1 Case Study Strategy 42 2.1.1 Research questions 47 2.1.2 Theoretical propositions 50 2.1.3 Units of analysis, and other elements of the case study design 52 2.2 Research methodology 55 2.2.1 Considerations of quantitative and qualitative approaches 56 2.2.2 Period of research and feedback 58 2.2.3 Research methods 60 2.2.4 History as a ‘proxy’ to approach geographical scales in Chile 71 2.3 Introducing the study’s analytical approaches 72 2.4 Limitations of the study 74 Chapter THREE: The social and multi-scalar progression of vulnerability 77 Theoretical background and analytical framework Introduction 77 3.1 Interpreting disasters and risks 79 3.2 Situating disaster vulnerability and its significance 82 3.2.1 Disaster and risk as social constructions 82 3.2.2 The rise of the social production of disaster vulnerability 84 3.2.3 Vulnerability approaches 91 3.2.4 Structural factors and the social production of vulnerability 94 3.3 The PAR model and a scalar perspective 96 3.3.1 The PAR model explained 96 3.3.2 The multi-scalar progression of vulnerability 100 9 3.3.3 The social construction of scales 103 3.4 Disaster governance, policy responses and vulnerability 109 3.5 Analytical framework 112 Chapter FOUR: The disaster policy context in Chile 117 Contextualising Chile Introduction 117 4.1 A brief history of Chilean disasters 118 4.1.1 The dominant view of the history of Chilean disasters: earthquakes 120 4.1.2 History of disasters triggered by other extreme events 126 4.1.3 Other issues in the mainstream view of the history 130 4.2 The ‘logic’ of the state territorial organisation of Chile 134 4.2.1 The origins of the territorial structure of the state 134 4.2.2 Approaching the current state territorial organisation 139 4.2.3 The territorial structure of the state and the government 142 4.3 Economic model, centralisation and uneven development 149 4.4 The model of managing disasters and reducing risks in Chile 155 4.4.1 The National Plan of Civil Protection and the ONEMI 156 4.4.2 Legal frameworks for DRM and DRR 161 4.4.3 Territorial planning instruments for DRM and DRR 169 4.5 Setting the context to analyse post-disaster Chaitén 175 Chapter FIVE: The case of post-disaster Chaitén 179 Unpacking the policy responses Introduction 179 5.1 Chaitén, before and after the volcanic eruption: preparing the case 181 5.1.1 Introducing Chaitén 183 5.1.2 A subsidised city? 190 5.2 The Chaitén disaster: emergency response 193 5.2.1 Emergency meetings and the ‘dormant’ volcano 195 5.2.2 The emergency response and evacuation 198 5.3 Recovery and relocation of Chaitén 205 5.3.1 Friction between national and local decision-making 206 5.3.2 The rebels: occupying Chaitén 208 5.3.3 Compensation, benefits and subsidies 212 5.3.4 The new Chaitén: the city relocation process 217 5.3.5 Political shift on the Chaitén relocation 226 5.4 Reconstruction 229 5.4.1 Occupying the South sector 229 5.4.2 Chaitén (North) reconstruction plan? 233 10 5.4.3 Unmet demands 234 5.4.4 Limited access to services 237 5.5 Mapping the progression of vulnerability 245 Chapter Six 255 Conclusions Introduction 255 6.1 Research questions and epistemological implications 257 6.1.1 Vulnerability locally materialised 257 6.1.2 Root causes of disaster vulnerability are often distant 262 6.2 Methodological and empirical implications 265 6.2.1 Considering a multi-scalar perspective 266 6.2.2 Guidance for policy and practice 269 6.3 Some reflections on the research experience 274 6.4 Call and suggestions for further research 277 References 281 Appendices 305 11 List of figures Figure 1.1. Chaitén before and after the volcanic eruption 21 Figure 1.2. Analysed period of policy responses in the Chaitén disaster, 2008-2013 22 Figure 1.3. The disaster Pressure and Release (PAR) model 26 Figure 1.4. Case study entry points 32 Figure 2.1. National-local interplay in post-disaster Chaitén 45 Figure 2.2. The PAR model and its potential scalar dimensions 48 Figure 2.3. The case study method 51 Figure 2.4. Basic types of designs for case studies 52 Figure 2.5. The research process 53 Figure 2.6. Fieldwork and sub-fieldwork periods 59 Figure 2.7. Chaitén post-disaster 59 Figure 2.8. Research participants arranged by organisation and scales 66 Figure 3.1. The Hazards of Place Model of Vulnerability 91 Figure 3.2. The disaster Pressure and Release (PAR) model 98 Figure 3.3. The general model of DRM in Chile with the ONEMI 111 Figure 3.4. Mapping literature review, framing the analysis 114 Figure 4.1. Rationale for the chapter case study’s entry point 117 Figure 4.2. Areas flooded by the 1960 Chilean tsunami in Maullín (near to Valdivia) 122 Figure 4.3. Ships and factories destroyed by the 1960 Great Valdivia earthquake 123 Figure 4.4. La Nación’s headline, June 10, 1960 124 Figure 4.5. Administrative division by regions, provinces and municipalities, Chile 143 Figure 4.6.